Jump to content

Chicago WX

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    18,353

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Chicago WX

    Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

    Never really done this but I'm sort of segmenting this one in my head.  Hyper focused on Tue night into the first part of Wed, and then whatever will be will be.

    Think I may willed this a little too far south after last nights NAM. :arrowhead: :D

    But I’m with you. It’s all overrunning for here now. Second piece looks like scraps. Only caution flag for MBY is how long does the flip to snow take. Going to waste some QPF on rain, so hopefully that all works out. Right now I’m thinking 6-10” for IKK storm total. Foot possible, but everything needs to break right for that to happen.

    Regardless, looks like an awesome storm for central iL and IN and on east. Would love to see someone pull a 20 spot out of this…

    • Like 1

    Feb 1 -3 GHD III

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

    IM SURE GLAD NOTHINGS CHANGED AROUND HERE!!!!!  lmao

    :D

    4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

    Getting nervous huh?  :P

    We just gotta hope we run out the clock before too much more of a north shift.

    Eh, I was waiting for the north shifts to happen. Too much time on the clock. Would’ve like to see them hold off until later. Oh well. Back to hibernation. :lol:

    • Haha 1

    Feb 1 -3 GHD III

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    6z Euro did bump north/northwest with part 1. And a bit wetter in the main snow band. If it went past 90 on the op run, looks like part 2 would be a bit further north too. Not enough for up here, but parts of central/southern IL and IN would cash quite nicely I think...

    And how cool is it that COD has the Euro now with all these variables. 6z and 18z runs too. 

    • Like 1

    Feb 1 -3 GHD III

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

    Can someone post the individual 12z EPS members?

    You have to do some "extra work", and not all the parameters are available for free...but you can see the individuals here. Total precip and snow depth are available. Choose the "switch members" to see the op, control, and all 51 ensembles: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/illinois/m41_acc-total-precipitation/20220204-1800z.html

    #41 is my favorite...

     

    41.png

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Feb 1 -3 GHD III

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

    Again, the thing you like to see is the consistency on multiple suites of guidance of a band of around 2 feet or more, even if the placement of it shifts/doesn't agree.  It's remarkable to see something like that being modeled in this region of the country and not just on 1 crazy run of 1 model.  

    I liked your comparison to the Dec 2004 event. Longer duration event that threw down some big totals in the OV. Seems this one might have that potential. But, long ways to go…

    • Like 1

    Feb 1 -3 GHD III

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    6z GEFS mean total precip and snowfall. Pretty juicy this far out. Regardless, expect shifting of the snow axis from run to run. Just want to see the models keep the same general idea of a sizable system somewhere in the region. Details TBD on Monday and Tuesday, if it's still warranted... 

    gefs precip.png

    gefs snow.png

    • Like 1

    July 2021 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    If I had received all the rain WPC has predicted for MBY this summer (and my p&c forecasts as well), I'd be over 30" for the season.  :lol:

    Anyways, been a nice couple of days with no rain. Hopefully we can avoid most of it later today and tomorrow as well. Then it looks like a nice warm and dry stretch for a time. Pool time incoming. :beer:

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...