PDIII

36 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Mid 60's for an extended period of time in mid February - just so amazing - residents of the TN Valley will be sorely surprised when the larger scale pattern eventually flips; if we were to have a winter season like we had in my child hood -1970's-1980's - people would not know what to do not to mention if we had one similar to the 1960's where almost every season in that decade had at least one big storm and several seasons had seasonal totals well over 12" - just amazing! Anyone have any idea when we break out of this multi-year crap pattern?

How bout them Titans!!!

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is what it is. Nothing I say will change it. You can either cry or throw your hands up and laugh about it, then go find other things that bring you joy. Hopefully no ones entire happyness is 100% dependent on snow.  If so I seriously suggest a location adjustment stat.  

I would go with the Cascades.. or maybe Maine

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have a work workshop from Feb 12 to 16th in South Carolina.  I was legit going to wait until next Wed to book the trip, because I was deathly afraid of missing a snowstorm.

lol.  I'm booking my flight tonight. 

Too early.  I have a feeling that'll be just about the time that things change for the better.  Its probably gonna get cold at some point this winter.

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm convinced this window (Feb 6-14) will produce something decent to track, maybe our best chance of the season. It may be more narrow of a range than I posted and could be a one and done situation, but this season I don't think anyone would complain.

Yeah that time period usually works for us.  

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Did PD2 500mb pattern have a rather significant SE Ridge? Or am I thinking of some other significant past Feb storm?

I know there was a HP over the NE that wouldnt budge and a train of moisture feeding almost in a perfect northern trajectory. And it kept back filling.  That radar was a thing of beauty.  

The midweek thing keeps gaining strength and latitude.  Look at the 48 hour panel and compare it with the last several runs.  It would be a real miracle.. a long shot.. but at least something is trending in the direction for once...

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes but you can travel 100 miles north of the outer limits of our forum and they aren’t killing it either.  100 miles south and nothing but tears.  We all suck at snow.  Except for Maine.  They don’t suck. 

Yeah Maine is doing great this year! 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

9" of snow in Lake Pontchartrain could be a red flag but I'll ignore fow now

Just now, Bob Chill said:

9" of snow in Lake Pontchartrain could be a red flag but I'll ignore fow now

incoming on the GFS

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Great historic storm, but probably not even top 10 here. 1996, 2003, and all 3 biggies during the epic winter of 2009-10 were far better. Jan 1987 was better here too. Even with the dry slot from hell, 2016 was better. I am sure I could come up with at least a few more. Location!

93 was a superior event overall if you appreciate weather.  I think over 200 people died.  The derecho in florida was one of the most interesting components of the storm.  It was one of the first storms modeled 5 days out with a very high confidence

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The 0z gfs showed one reason why there weren’t a lot of regular small to medium hits in the ensembles. That track (up through eastern TN) with any cold at all would be 3-6” before a flip. And with cold that low likely transfers to the coast from there instead of tracking due north and then who knows. But the bottom line is even a track that normally with simply typical winter cold can support “some snow” isn’t even close it’s all rain. Likewise a perfect track but weak system would be rain. We need to get CCBd to death to get snow. It’s an ultimate thread the needle. 

It will probably get cold in the next couple of weeks

Since it is hard to figure out where to find it on pivotal I included a wider view:

and Halifax did great with tropical

Montreal is doing great this year!

4 hours ago, jaydreb said:

0z GFS largely unchanged.  Maybe slightly worse/warmer but just noise.  

I dont think it is noise. A couple of runs ago the GFS went from 8 inches to 2 inches for me... and it hasnt really recovered at all.  

12 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You can't forecast an ice storm until about 12 to 18 hours out.  

nahhhh... ice storms are easy peasy... just look at the GFS.. it shows it in pink and it goes out like 400 hours.

14 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Judah cancelling winter might mean winter is about to start LOL.

Remember tha psu definitively canceled winter earlier this year.. in one of our greatest posts in AmericanWX history.. he all but said.. "no snow for you"..  I figured that was my cue to start paying attention 

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd argue that peak snow climo, which I give more credence to, is mid-January through President's Day 

Yeah definitely.. not sure about how reliable this is.. but check out this link: 

https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Maryland/Places/baltimore-snowfall-totals-snow-accumulation-averages.php

It says that average snowfall is greater in February than January..and we know that it gets spotty towards the end of February.  So I think it is safe to that we are heading in to our peak climo in the next couple of weeks

26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I can live with this look in the extended on the EPS. Very workable pattern and is a tremendous upgrade to what we expecting to see just a week ago. The GEFS though is still somewhat rough as it continues to be heavy handed with the troughing into the SW and off the coast. But even that is workable towards the end of the extended though it would probably more so favor 40 north at this time.

 

 

Both operational models show the the negative PNA index lightening up on its grip.  Thats just in time for our prime time climo.  Glad to see it.  

I realized this morning that the pattern lines up well with the Raven's road to the Superbowl.  It looks to me that it will hold for the AFC championship game (knock on wood) and Baltimore might enjoy Indian summer conditions for the divisional round!.  Lamar's has had troubles in the past with adverse weather conditions..  so for me this is the silver lining.  

11 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Comparing the 18Z to 12z GEFS clown snow map mean at 6 days it was a marginal improvement.

This basically says that it is not going to snow.. whatever it is showing in Garrett county is just whatever they get after  a frontal passage.. we dont get that.. and the 2-3 inch stuff in Frederick County is noise.  This map is depressing..

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Now that I am home with the data in front of me...I will answer this...but its gonna hurt.

 

It is hard to argue the logic and analysis here.. but that ridge out in the pacific will break down and the pattern will flip.. and given this all nonsense started a in mid December we will probably enter in to a period with better odds for snow somewhere in February/ March... and thats usually what we see anyways.. 

I am not worried. I will enjoy jogging outside the next couple of weeks.

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Merry Christmas to my fellow Christians - our Lord and Savior was born today!

And a very happy Hanukkah to my Jewish friends. 

I agree.  I told my son yesterday that saying happy holidays is unamerican.. it is either Christmas or Hanukkah.  And for christ sake starbucks.. put the word Christmas on you cups please