PDIII

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Its better than 12Z.  Maybe a tad slower but comes in heavy. 

yeah it has the most accumulating snow since yesterday's 18Z.  Just glad we didnt lose it. Would be fun to get 4 inches in a couple of hours. I like watching heavy snow.

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What does he have against Tuesday?  Not a CAD fan?  CAD makes some people angry.  

Richmond may not be in that game?

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, they're going to see some of those amounts along Mason-Dixon...they're wedged in pretty good.  Wesminter and York have northeast winds and Td in the upper 20s still.

Looks like the Euro from yesterday is gonna be dead on.

2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

12z Icon and 12z gfs say why wait until next week when you can be tracking something for this weekend...

Yes another great 500MB pass with horrible temps

I wonder if that first band in Frederick is virga...

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

Thanks Ravens.. 3-6 for catonsville/ Woodlawn.  I will take it

I remember a day back in the 90s where we had a similar set up to this.  It was supposed to be a brief period of snow and then a wash out.  My dad and I decided to take the dog for a walk in middle River when it began to snow. By the time we got done there was 3 inches on the ground. It never changed over. I think we got like 5 inches and some sleet. 

Maybe we get lucky. It happens. I am in Baltimore so I can dream...

3 hours ago, usedtobe said:

I think I did prior to our one snowstorm.  I'm not excited by this messed up system.  Where I live,  looks like a mostly rain event maybe starting as sleet Sunday night. 

Yeah.. I mean it's a sub 1000 low riding up in to Chicago. It makes me wonder why there is even a thread.  Some of models were pretty bullish on CAD a couple of days ago so I guess everyone is hang on that. I am hoping we get an inch or two out of the first wave. I am up in Baltimore county. Just high enough where I get snow when the city gets rain.

I see @usedtobe lurking. Havent seen him post hardly anything this year

All the models are showing the precip max in eastern pa.  I am sad about that.  Why can't the blue be over me?

The wildcard is whether or not SLP develops along the front. If that happens and the change over occurs early enough we should see some upside with this. 

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro still gets us all with 2-5". Still very close to something bigger. Slp forms off the coast and keeps the heavy precip offshore. Parts of interior NE get nuked pretty good. As is it's still a good event and I didn't see any red flags. 

Snow with a this type of set up can be a lot of fun.  We could see a burst where we get 3 inches in an hour or two.  There will be a huge temp gradient... Should be like a strong raing shower.. but snow

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Icon...gfs is disaster. Its euro vs world

 

 

The GFS is showing more snow for the frontal passage than it has ever showed before.  It is really only 1-4 but it looks better than the previous runs.  Cmc is a big step back.

Man nws is really going big. They are counting on something.. maybe snow cover.. evap cooling.. a quick front end thump.. maybe ice.. 

And they issue the warnings after the last night's guidance... They are all in..

Now just flurries.. but I am glad I get to see some flakes!

I am in nyc right now for work.  Long night last nigh.  Woke up to moderate snow.. as soon as I saw it I just knew that we were gonna over perform!!

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Jesus that’s 12-18. Holy cow. The north trend is real just not sure if 18”. Lol. 

LWX talked about the potential for this this morning: "

slightly negative EPV
and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI
banding is possible"

btw.. jeffy should win an emmy

My message to the NAM: 

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios.

dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.  

Haha.. yeah!  I love it!!!

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Missed all the 18z and 0z runs . Trying to catch up. Gettin cold

Down to 20/16 

I think the gfs took a small step back on from 18 to 0.. but it does not matter at this lead. It's locked up.. lets bring it up.  8 inch lollis

31 minutes ago, snowdude said:

A little warmer this run with some rain pushing north. 

It seems like all the guidance took a step backwards at 0z... maybe I am just being pessimistic.. but that's what is looks like to me.

Eta I catonsville md it is cold as fock... And the dewpoint is low as fock. 

This explains it 

https://www.rd.com/culture/why-you-can-smell-snow/

18 minutes ago, Jebman said:

With those nice cold temps, you have solid surface frigidization.

That means that the snow will stick, from flake 1. And it will pile up.

I feel like jb2 should add surface frigidization to his venacular