PDIII

12 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You can't forecast an ice storm until about 12 to 18 hours out.  

nahhhh... ice storms are easy peasy... just look at the GFS.. it shows it in pink and it goes out like 400 hours.

14 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Judah cancelling winter might mean winter is about to start LOL.

Remember tha psu definitively canceled winter earlier this year.. in one of our greatest posts in AmericanWX history.. he all but said.. "no snow for you"..  I figured that was my cue to start paying attention 

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd argue that peak snow climo, which I give more credence to, is mid-January through President's Day 

Yeah definitely.. not sure about how reliable this is.. but check out this link: 

https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Maryland/Places/baltimore-snowfall-totals-snow-accumulation-averages.php

It says that average snowfall is greater in February than January..and we know that it gets spotty towards the end of February.  So I think it is safe to that we are heading in to our peak climo in the next couple of weeks

26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I can live with this look in the extended on the EPS. Very workable pattern and is a tremendous upgrade to what we expecting to see just a week ago. The GEFS though is still somewhat rough as it continues to be heavy handed with the troughing into the SW and off the coast. But even that is workable towards the end of the extended though it would probably more so favor 40 north at this time.

 

 

Both operational models show the the negative PNA index lightening up on its grip.  Thats just in time for our prime time climo.  Glad to see it.  

I realized this morning that the pattern lines up well with the Raven's road to the Superbowl.  It looks to me that it will hold for the AFC championship game (knock on wood) and Baltimore might enjoy Indian summer conditions for the divisional round!.  Lamar's has had troubles in the past with adverse weather conditions..  so for me this is the silver lining.  

11 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Comparing the 18Z to 12z GEFS clown snow map mean at 6 days it was a marginal improvement.

This basically says that it is not going to snow.. whatever it is showing in Garrett county is just whatever they get after  a frontal passage.. we dont get that.. and the 2-3 inch stuff in Frederick County is noise.  This map is depressing..

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Now that I am home with the data in front of me...I will answer this...but its gonna hurt.

 

It is hard to argue the logic and analysis here.. but that ridge out in the pacific will break down and the pattern will flip.. and given this all nonsense started a in mid December we will probably enter in to a period with better odds for snow somewhere in February/ March... and thats usually what we see anyways.. 

I am not worried. I will enjoy jogging outside the next couple of weeks.

Can't even manage some severe with a frontal passage.  Red Flag warnings surely will be hoisted.

Now just flurries.. but I am glad I get to see some flakes!

I am in nyc right now for work.  Long night last nigh.  Woke up to moderate snow.. as soon as I saw it I just knew that we were gonna over perform!!

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Jesus that’s 12-18. Holy cow. The north trend is real just not sure if 18”. Lol. 

LWX talked about the potential for this this morning: "

slightly negative EPV
and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI
banding is possible"

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios.

dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.  

Haha.. yeah!  I love it!!!

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Missed all the 18z and 0z runs . Trying to catch up. Gettin cold

Down to 20/16 

I think the gfs took a small step back on from 18 to 0.. but it does not matter at this lead. It's locked up.. lets bring it up.  8 inch lollis

Eta I catonsville md it is cold as fock... And the dewpoint is low as fock. 

This explains it 

https://www.rd.com/culture/why-you-can-smell-snow/

18 minutes ago, Jebman said:

With those nice cold temps, you have solid surface frigidization.

That means that the snow will stick, from flake 1. And it will pile up.

I feel like jb2 should add surface frigidization to his venacular

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

26/11

Just took the dog for a nice long walk. High clouds off in the distance. Stars to the east. But not to the west. It just SMELLS like a snow storm to me. Maybe a placebo effect?

You can smell snow. That's the truth. Someone should figure out the science behind that 

ANZ920-040830-
 Baltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fm and south of 38.5N to
 250 nm offshore-
 353 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018
 
 HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
 

 TONIGHT
 E to SE winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 45 to 60 kt. Seas
 2 to 4 ft, building to 11 to 18 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.

 THU
 Winds increasing to N to NW 55 to 65 kt, then becoming W to
 NW 55 to 70 kt. Seas building to 22 to 37 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or
 less.

I am in an advisory.. lol.. I was in a meeting at work and missed the last update. I guess the nws is saying that this could be the biggest event of the year.