Deck Pic

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Guess he wasn't buying the 1050 high and subtropical jet out to Hawaii. Rip

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He was defiant...you could tell he was conflicted.  5 minutes later Bob Ryan looks like a deer in headlights and goes 18-24"

Just now, Ji said:

I still remember when Keith Allen said pd 2003 was going to be rain. Ignored your Pittsburgh rule

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Not a good night for Doug Hill who went 8-14".  Shutt/Ryan/Palka went all-in.  You can't miss the big ones.  

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

The vodka cold is what I remember 

That was december 2001.  We were at WWBB or maybe weather.com.  JB kept promising us vodka cold and I hit 81 on January 30th 2002

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

You guys are as old now as I was back then 

yep.  same age minus the velcro sneakers

I was 31 when DT said it was physically impossible for Dec 5th 2003 to get north of the m/d line.  Time flies.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Colin is 43 now

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we're so old lol.  I was only 28 when JB horribly busted on March 2001

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is what you want to see for the 20th. the TPV splits into two distinct features... a 50/50 ULL and a digging shortwave

tasty Omega block over Baffin Island.  

"ukie says no snow for me and dt" - Jxdama in the early aughts

22 minutes ago, Terrapinwx said:

Chances of getting an inch went up dramatically on the Gefs. Shows less of a concern for mixing in the cities too


.

Am I the only one who is completely ignoring what type of map this is and pretending it is 24 hour snowfall?

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mean of all the guidance is a nice event for us. Solid place to be 5 days out. Hopefully euro jumps back onboard at 0z or 12z tomorrow.

Since the 18z euro ensembles go out to 144, I think we'll get a feel for whether the 12z op was just a wonky run.  

For side by side purposes, here is 6z ens mean and 12z ens mean. 

Maybe add about 0.10" to 6z since the run truncates at 144

6z

12z

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

how many times does the euro bring a storm back after completely losing it

it's probably fine...it's only Thursday....Let's take a break and reconvene Monday night.  See ya then

Just now, stormtracker said:

Almost time to extrapolate the NAM.

yep - I'm tossing this euro run

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Remember when the Euro didn’t flip around this much?

It's not really even flipping around.  It completely lost a storm it's had for like 10 straight runs.

Congrats

lol...Euro completely lost the storm

Just now, HighStakes said:

How about the early Feb. 96 storm. Maybe some similarities with that one also. Regardless I'm just happy to see legit cold across the region. 

yeah..maybe so....I think that storm was absurdly cold, but maybe it was the cold shot after it....I think IAD fell to like -10

3 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

This was mentioned as a analog the other day..y area got 18" so no complaints here.

Really good trends on modeling today, let's hope they hold.

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not surprised, it sticks out.  

That one hugged the coast more.  It was better organized.  I don't think this has as much potential.  But I seriously would die for 3-5" of cold smoke in the afternoon that sticks to the street....LFG

2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Also reminds me of a scaled down version of 1/25-26/87. That was a cold storm as well.

I believe that was much colder - after the reinforcing shot following storm 1 - but maybe similar?

Here's 96 - super similar....our trough is a little more positively tilted

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

All these pages need to come to a standard damn measurements.  They vary wildly

Kuchera vs 10:1

We could def get 12:1 overall...with some 15:1....if the storm even happens or exists

This reminds me of one of the Feb 96 storms....I think the 2nd.....2/16/96

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB OZ EURO

tasty ratios dude

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Snow, starts at 135.  still going at 144.  Low is stronger, LOOKS like it's still gonna just miss to our east 

yeah...it shifted east but it's still pretty good for DC metro and southeast of there

pretty cool...cold smoke and mid 20s Tuesday afternoon