Deck Pic

Just now, WesternFringe said:

It’s not working out very well.  Weenies be cliff diving and stuff

The short duration of the storm makes it a likely challenge for the DC crew when we're starting out so warm.  

For those outside the beltway, nobody should be cliff diving.

RAP has like 0.09" for DC lol.  I'm not too worried about those totals.  Though I imagine the 0z NAM will cut back some.  

8 pm update

my backyard: 44/20

DCA: 44/23

IAD: 41/17

BWI: 40/19

Forecast for my backyard

Midnight - 1:30 am

Rain/Mix changing to all snow.  Temps drop from upper 30s to mid 30s

1:30 am - 4 am

Snow then tapering off.  33-34 degrees

Total accumulation 1-2"

42 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

What time should i set my alarm to get up and take a walk in two inch per hour snowfall?


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in Frederick...midnight- 1am

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Same, but GFS being off on an island on it's own is 

Id probably use euro/NBM combo for overall QPF.  But maybe we’ll be surprised. 

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Sfc right at freezing at IAD

DCA falls to 33 at 2 am.  It would be nice to get some accumulation here before that. 

Just now, WVclimo said:

Overcast.  44/13

47/19, partly sunny.  Can’t wait for the sun to set 

8 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

HRRR has areas east of 95 raining for 1-2 hrs before the change over. It really only actually snows for 2 hrs east of 95 between dc/Balt. Will be interesting to see if this verifies.


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That’s kind of my thinking now for mby. That more than 0.5”-ish by 1:30 is kind of a bonus. And the bulk falls after that. 

Just now, snowfan said:

If it’s 1-3 or 2-4 or 3-5 who cares? It’s a Saturday morning in February. Just enjoy it. 

This is known as the "bargaining stage of grief".  

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Currently a warm 48 with a dp of 16. Dry out there but warm 

 

i'm glad we have a good 4-5 hours of dark pre-event to cool down a bit.  

7 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Delete the thread and start another?

my 2 cents is no.  Because the "bad" trend isn't region wide.  The latest trends are good for the climo crew.  We could start an obs thread tho?  I don't know the protocol here

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Yeah but yesterday you said don't hone in on the south max... you want the northern max

This was predetermined days ago.  It's why the GFS with the southern stripe yesterday was silly.  Climo wins.  The usual suspects are going to clean up.

1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Def a bit warmer at the surface compared to 12z as well 

I've rapidly transitioned to head in the sand mode.  I'm ignoring anything negative.

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

psu wants the kuchera maps, you don't want the kuchera maps, chuck is posting snow depth... what's a guy who's only contribution is posting maps to do? either way it's drier... hate to be a deb but drier. 

18z

12z

It came across wrong.  I was speaking generally about how I'm approaching this.  As far as maps, the more the merrier.  Kuchera, 10:1, snow coverage in siberia.  It's good to have the data.  Appreciate all the posts.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It looks a lot like it's last run but drier. At least we get raked for a few hours. This all basically falls in a 3-hour span

I don't like the kuchera maps for this.  Better to come up with a predicted liquid amount and work from there.

Just now, Alfoman said:

For once this season, we got the dreaded north + warmer trend within the final hours...

Won't make the biggest difference in most places but DC-proper definitely forfeits their max potential due to temps during onset of precip and worse dynamics during the event. SAD.  

I think that's right for us.  We probably do pretty so-so in the 11 pm - 1 am segment and score in the last 2-3 hours.  

I could see 0.5" or something in the first couple hours, and then we'll score at the end.  I think 1-3" might be more realistic though.

3k is quite a bit better than the 12k - at least for me 

well?

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

I know this sounds dumb but 2-4" would be a little disappointing out this way but I'd take it in a heartbeat

where you are, you could hit or even exceed 4".   I'm a little worse off.  I think I have to be happy with 2-3"

NBM seems to be ingesting the latest trends.

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

it was 55 on march 12,1993

yeah, and I got sister kissed to death.  

46/18, Partly sunny.  awaiting my snowstorm

12 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I would think we'd drop to around 32 with heavy precip no?

I think so.  You for sure.  I could see you doubling my total.  I might get stuck at like 34 for a while.