Deck Pic

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So yeah, a bit drier...last run some spots were 4-6

It's a 4 hour storm.  I'm worried you and I waste too much time dropping to 33.   Euro is 36 at DCA at 1 am...yikes...I think it's wrong, but still.

5 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Back in Fargo, we'd call this "another 2-4" event and everyone would shrug and go about their business. We're splitting hairs here at this point, this has been locked in for at least the last 36 hours. 

Cool story

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Deck Pic slightly drier 00z Euro QPF looks like?  Noise I assume

It's fine.  ~0.35-0.4" for me and you.  

Not sure if anyone posted 0z ICON

as far as jacks and bands, I don't trust this GFS run at all.  But the beefing up of qpf is a good sign. 

Euro does a really good job with QPF even if it is off on timing or details.  

GFS smokes me.  

16 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Anyone else having trouble loading local snowfall from the new NBM link that was shared earlier?

latest run is a broad 2-4" over whole area at 10:1

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m catching up for last 2 hours so write first snd come back later. For answers. 
if I’m seeing 3 hour panels of .25 minimum and then another close to same and it’s 8-10 hour  event then majority of accumulations seem real low?

4-6 hour event.  0.30-0.35 qpf is a good bet for us.  I'd go no higher than 12:1 because we might burn a little on rain/mix at the beginning, and temps will be borderline.  I'd probably go 3-4" for you. 2-3" for me with my surface temp issues.

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, that would bring the grade on my snowfall outlook from an F to a D

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

3km NAM has 0.4” QPF in 3 hours in the DC area.  That’s aggressive.

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

I need Thunder Snow and 4” for 15” on the season. Then we can call it a winter and bring spring on

lol no.  More.  March is a winter month for us, especially you.  

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Can we get a normal storm

This one could be good, and we won't have to be up all night.  It scoots out.  I think your backyard looks pretty good for 3-5".  

Just now, yoda said:

Is that 0.50 QPF in DC metro?  I'm trying to differentiate the colors

hell yeah it is.  It's probably overdone.  But not by much.  

Here's the 1.33k at 36 hours - not sure how skilled it is toward the end of the run.. It precips lightly after this.  But 90%+ over.

It's a quick hitter...like 11 pm to 6 am

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

2-4  with a little lollipop of 4-6 riding the beltway north of DC and toward Annapolis, lol and one just north of PSU land...he could see it from his house

It's a pretty run

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

New thread....let's do it

no need...the models are holding or trending better.  

Here's the Ukie

euro was a solid run.  3-4" over my house.  

bleh

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Would be disappointing but we can’t know yet. I’ll start whining on Friday

No way we could ever know.  The idea of models beefing up QPF does seem to have some validity based on past experience

0z Canadian has the same feature of a precip minima over my house.  Dry is the problem.  It's basically 1-3".

7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

btw

Yeah...NBM is a good conservative resource.  So many models ingested.  And the spread around lag seems to keep it from swinging much from run to run

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm