Deck Pic

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

idk with Kuchera this matches the LWX forecast. We la la lock it up with cushion on all sides

I edited my post...I somehow switched to the RRFS and thought I was looking at the GFS.  Too many tabs lol

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

18z GFS

snow begins at 9z Monday

Looks like maybe even earlier

Midnight to 6 am tonight : 0.5"-1"

Then Lull

Then resumes around 1 pm and snows periodically until 3 am - but with some lulls : 2-3"

End total 2-4"

That said, I doubt it has the timing and meso features correct, 

EDIT - I was looking at the RRFS at the end for totals lol..corrected above

1 minute ago, Benjamn3 said:

How concerned are yall with the dry air eating up the snow? Do the models take that into consideration?

not concerned

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Anyone know what that RRFS experimental thing is?  Hopefully is sucks because it’s the only thing that has looked consistently awful for our area. 

It Rapid Refresh...It incorporates the NAM and some other short terms.   I think it's mostly meant for convection.  A met probably knows more.

Have they run the 1.33 km NAM over the mid atlantic. Often they'll do it if there is a storm.

This event reminds me a little of 2/1-2/13.  Though, this should be better.  Snow showers fell periodically over a 2 day period with temps below freezing.  Sometimes moderate.  Only ended up with 1", but it was nice to have snow in the air for a lot of the time.

What does the SUNY MM5 show?

46 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Yeah. It’s kind of wacky. Moved up and over early. I’m tempted to toss it. 

Yeah...this

23 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

I'd be wary of the NAM folks, even the 3km. Mainly because, well, it's the NAM (btw NCEP can't pull the plug on that model soon enough). I know it's in the shorter range when the NAM could actually be right. But look at some of the CAMS, including the latest (18Z) HREF are all farther south with the axis. I mean, look at the latest HRRR (the one Pivotal Wx map)...heaviest stays south! And were within 24-36 hours of go time.

Will be interesting to see the 18Z GFS trends. ECMWF and UKMET, while not as far south with the max QPF and snow axis (into central VA), are definitely more muted with more widespread 2-3" for most, which is consistent with the NBM.

Proceed with caution with the NAM3..

 

1 minute ago, high risk said:

18Z NAM (both 3 and 12 km) looks better because the snow gets more impressive earlier, but it also slows things down much faster Monday night, and the highest totals are northwest of the I-95 corridor

Yeah. It’s kind of wacky. Moved up and over early. I’m tempted to toss it. 

3k is nice. It has 2-3” for many already by midnight tomorrow. 
 
forecasting and timing all these pulses will be tricky. 

Latest National Blend. 18z.  Almost everyone in the 2-4” contour. 




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3 minutes ago, konksw said:

Does this potential inch overnight tonight show up on any models?

Sort of.  3k NAM might give us a better idea.  Also HRRR this evening.  And maybe some other short range products.  
 

Hopefully RGEM gives us 6-8” (not happening) 

18z HRRR has 1” in DC before the main slug of precip moves in at midnight tomorrow night.  Though it looks like tomorrow afternoon might be more of an issue than overnight tonight. 

Would you buy, sell or hold 2.5” in your backyard. 
 

I’m between a sell and hold. 

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Some models say tomorrow midday, others delay it until tomorrow evening. Hard to say, depends on where that narrow band aims and when the column gets saturated enough

This event is quite a bit more disorganized than most of ours.  
 

hopefully the mesos will help us hone in on the details including banding 

We’re obv not getting 0.3” evenly distributed over 10 hours.   

24 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

nice uptrend!

I would say at this point there is more upside than downside.  I think the chances of a widespread 3-5" event are better than the chances of <1"

Here's 10:1

I'm gonna call it a night.  And not worry about this storm until late tomorrow.  

see ya in 45 minutes

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

We gettin 2 to 4 homie

moar please

0z Canadian and 4z NBM.....Even though it runs every hour, I don't know how quickly it digests new data.  Currently looks a lot like the 0z Ukie

19 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

basically guaranteed inch on GEFS, probs around 4-5" mean w/ 0.3" qpf and adjusting w 15:1 ratios

As I did the last time you posted this, I'm pretending the numbers are inches

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

maybe there is some merit in starting a 2nd thread if things aren't looking great

yup..Best thing Randy could have done.  Manifesting this event was our only real option left.  

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Did we just get NAM’d for an event 90% of us gave up on?

well less than 90%.  Why would someone give up on something like 4-5 days out?

1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

Gfs?


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There's a button at the bottom of the posts where you can go to the previous page.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What’s the bar for folks on this? 

2.5" imby, over 2.5" would be awesome.  1.25"-2.5" would be a bit of a bummer but still fun.  Anything under an inch is unacceptable