Deck Pic

While we wait for the Euro

3z NBM

0z Icon

0z Icon Ens Mean

lol...Ukie

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I though the op caved

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

it gives me 5" .  I don't know any geography outside the beltway...so I dunno...Are you in VA or MD?

Unsurprisingly the Canadian ensemble mean does not support the much more robust OP.  Looks more like the other globals

0z GFS Ensemble mean

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

There are no words that can explain how we got here no words!

This is my favourite model run today

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Coastal seems gone. I’m in for that early tongue of precip that deck pic posted

the flatter and weaker the coastal gets, likely the better chance the light overrunning materializes into something palatable.  I'm not saying that's what we want, but for me and you sometimes sloppy seconds do the trick.  When I look back at my snow stats over the last 20 years, I have a lot of 0.5" - 1.25" storms.  That's what this looks like if we can get a 1-2 hour period of moderate snow

Maybe this lead tongue of precip can materialize into something modest like 2-4" for south and east

The period from 8 pm - 2 am monday night isn't terrible.  Dark out and 29-30.  It would be something at least

20 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I know it’s the NAM at range but this image is just awe inspiring to me…lol

me too...the NAM truncation allows us to pretend 1/25/2000 is about to unfold instead of the reality that the coastal is going to amble out to sea

1 minute ago, Ji said:

maybe the tuesday event is an appetizer for a hECS a few days later. Before some HECS, we would get an appetizer event right before it. FEb 2010, FEb 2003 come to mind lol. Totallly grasping at straws here but i would take 1-2 Tuesday if i knew bigger and better was coming a few days later

our big storm is next weekend.  This is a table setter

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Well, looks like a light event or nothing which has been my fear overall. Was never into the amped idea. No storm or scraper. Ensembles trending SE was a hairbringer. NBM I imagine will follow suit, but 1-2” is very possible. Better coverage for NW of the fall line where temps should stay below 32° on Tuesday. 

just one run, but this is our warmest panel and it's still only 33 at DCA.  We should do alright on cars, trash cans, decks, snow boards I would think.  Streets, maybe not.

I jack

Just now, stormtracker said:

Better soak this A1 quality analysis up now.  Gonna be gone for 0z.  Well, I think we're leaving at like 11, but I won't have my laptop and analyzing on the phone sucks

Cool..have fun whatever you're doing.

47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Let’s just make up a model

I guess you don't remember like 10 years ago when we invented the 21z Euro.  

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Meh..H5 changed, but sfc is still dry...will end up like 12z most likely. 

Looks like another whiff

yeah...It's a total disaster...oh well

Just now, Ji said:

I think we got 4 inches and a severe dry slot but we were modeled for 20 at one point

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

That was probably HM's worst bust.  He went like 25" for you.  But he didn't quite know climo that well here yet

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ooof that January 2005 was the last straw for me. I think that's what I coined too far north too far south too far east......

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

The back edge was moving at 143 mph...we were under a "Heavy Snow Warning" lol

1 minute ago, Ji said:

People waking up Tommorow morning seeing a huge uptick in posts are going to have a big meltdown

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

until it's storm mode we have to entertain ourselves until we get in range.  it's 1 am.

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I talk to Cosgove

do you talk about cAk vortices and panhandle hookers?

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think zwyrs got tired of new Englanders saying what a great run it was when in reality it was Miller b

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

In 04-05, SNE kept telling us how great our winter was.  That was the straw.

Just now, stormtracker said:

I was thinking about that today actually.  We had NO subforums and it was more united but chaotic.  There were characters from every area know well on the entire board.

Yall better thank Matt(deck pic) for subforums as we know them today.

people resisted at first.  You were on board.  People were afraid of change.  

Just now, Ji said:

No Howard updated us in a thread what Keith Allen's thoughts was about the storm. Not sure if Howard agreed or was just being the messenger

Megawatt thought they were both crazy

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

HM went like 24-36".  We didn't know he was only like 13 at the time.

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

 

I remember reading Gary Gray and his long posts breaking down each model run before PD2. I had just turned 30. 20 years in the blink of an eye!

Gary Gray nailed 96.  claim to fame.

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

I still remember when Keith Allen said pd 2003 was going to be rain. Ignored your Pittsburgh rule

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

was that the official 936-1212 forecast or did Sidney Secular overrule him