JJBASHB

2% Tornado ...Northeast... A low-amplitude disturbance associated with an ongoing MCS near Lake Ontario this morning will move east into the Northeast during the day. Cloud breaks and low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a destabilizing airmass by midday. Veering and strengthening winds with height will support storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Eventually a band of storms is forecast to evolve by mid-late afternoon with wind damage being the primary risk. Have introduced low hail/tornado probabilities to account for hazards associated with supercells.

First slight risk!

Sun!!!

We got a bit more over by the Bedford line, around 1.75” total. Sleet with a layer of snow on top.

Kinda looks like the sleet line is headed northeast again on CC? Heavy sleet in my part of MHT.

Sleet line has made it to MHT. Not an official measurement but ~4” before the change.

One of the few situations where MHT might be the envy of New England. Up to 37. Lots of dripping but mostly sun related as the dp is still in the teens. Kind of a perfect day to get outside. Not too wet from melting but the sun feels great.

Definitely was generous with my eye measurement earlier. Only an 1” in Manchester

-SN bordering on SN despite the progressive radar. It’s like the snow form of misery mist. Lots of tiny flakes. Looks like 1.5”

Steady light snow, surfaces disappearing fast.

First flakes.

Virga despite the heavier echos overhead.

Snow is drifting south of the heaviest radar returns up here. MHT with 0.25mi vis and gusting to 37mph. It must be incredible down in RI/SE Massachusetts. Someday I’ll get down there for one of these.

This consolation band has been fun.

.25mi vis and gusting to 30 at MHT last observation. Getting closer to Blizzard conditions.

This has to be close to 1/4mi vis now. Snow has that wavy look in the pulses of wind. Most fun yet.

Conditions significantly more impressive in MHT. Eclipsed an inch, visibility has to under 1mi now. Snow growth is still poor, but that’s probably the wind

The south trend has been unstoppable this year. I’m ready for 40s and mist while YUL is 75.

-Sn in MHT. Looks like maybe 1/4-1/2” at best on the colder surfaces. Vis only dropped to 1 mi at the airport last night. Models might not have been sharp enough with the northern edge up this way, even with the late trends yesterday. That band looks insane down there. Hopefully it can rot for awhile and we get some prolific totals.

Getting some better snow growth/rates. Radar looks pretty good too. Some melting going on as only half the road has a coating. Moon angle is strong this time of year.

-sn in MHT

You’re getting at least a foot.

It’s still going to be fun watching the storm evolve. Definitely lessons to learn from a forecasting standpoint. I’m still not sure whether to expect 6 or 18, obviously leaning less now. It seems rare to have such changes so close to the event, though, which is interesting in its own right.

There’s still time for this to trend back. Did the energy get sampled that well even?

Another jump like the GFS and we get clouds.