Hvward
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Everything posted by Hvward
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18z GFS with a better phase. NW trend come on down!
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Yep 12z Euro with a similar look to the 0z. Many times I’ve seen these overrunning signatures that show up like this turning into a decent thump where some see 3”+ along the Escarpment.
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Sunday night through Tuesday is starting to grab my attention. Possible some overrunning precipitation. Lots going on at the 500mb level so I think we have a long way to go before we know how this one will unfold. Models are showing a deep Gulf Low shooting up and interacting with a ULL. Euro has what is very close to a snow sounding Monday evening. Column is also very saturated. All models show the ULL and the GL, it’s just a matter of how close they get to each other, and if the ULL can capture the GL.
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Already snowfall on the ground in Banner Elk. It would be worth it. Check my live camera up there. https://www.ashevillewx.com/banner-elk-live-camera
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Hoping that the ULL can bring everyone a nice snow shower or two on Monday night or Tuesday morning. Looking at the second storm that will affect WNC late this week and into the weekend, this one is really interesting. There is really no model agreement at this point as to the timing on when the ULL will move through. There is also a Gulf Low that is throwing another wrench in the gears. Overnight Euro shows WNC being able to take advantage of the exiting 50/50 low to our Northeast, and some overrunning precipitation produces scattered snow showers Friday Morning. Then as the ULL begins to capture the GL and deepen, a deformation feature develops on the backside and hammers WNC with frozen precipitation as Omega crashes aloft. This all happens with temps that are very borderline, but heavy precip seems to overcome on the 0z model run. In fact the control on the 0z EPS gave WNC 5" of snow. The GFS is similar with the deepening of the low pressure, but is slower with the ULL and the GL turns into a Noreaster. It seems there is a window of possibility for snow Friday into Saturday if the ULL can capture the low in the Gulf. CMC is slower with the ULL as well right now, so we will see. What does appear likely is another thump of snow for those above 3500'. This will be a good week for high elevation folk. Enjoy!
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Looking forward to the pictures man!
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Trends are away from anything meaningful in the valleys(over 1"). High elevations are going to get a couple of inches from the first NWF Monday night, but models are holding back that second piece of energy. Looks like more of a Friday night-Saturday time frame if anything were to happen. Still a lot can change, but these are not trends that favor a strong southeast snowstorm unfortunately.
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Yeah very close with that first storm. Phases just a little too late. Main takeaway is that the timeframe from Dec 1-8th looks conducive for some form of a winter storm.
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12z EPS has some big dogs. Looks to me like a decent window for some sort of phasing to occur. Still a ton of details to be hammered out, but this is not a bad look 7-9 days out.
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EPS snow signal getting strong each run for KAVL. That’s a measure I like to watch this far out from the possibility of wintery weather.
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Yeah was coming here to post about that. Pattern change looks almost certain now around the beginning of Dec with both the GFS & Euro showing the potential for some energy to move through the South. Glad to finally have something to track..
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Some very strong winds showing up on most models Thursday afternoon around WNC. Euro latched on to this solution yesterday and it appears that all other have fallen suite. Looks like the core of Zeta moves right through WNC. Anyways, batten down the hatches!
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Got a few shots from Roan this morning. https://www.ashevillewx.com/weatherupdate/2020/5/8/may-snow-coats-nc-high-country-photo-gallery
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Buckethead and I have been trying to get a webcam up at the Country Club in Wolf Laurel. I have the whole setup, just need a commitment. Would be a moving 4-5 view 1080HD camera that operates year round. Going to send some follow up emails about that, seemed that it had really good potential at one point in time.
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I slipped on ice on my deck this morning. I am currently over May. Frosted at my house this morning... 2200’ and a mile from the French Broad. My thermometer said 31.
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Well so the long range GFS even brings May snow showers to the valleys next Saturday night. Seriously WTF, I want to plant my tomatoes...
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Just saw this thread, but GFS shows a stout ULL to begin April like others have stated. Love how we get these setups at the end of winter instead of January...
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Wow did we just lose Ryan Newman? Man that was an awful wreck..
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For the mountains these overrunning events have worked out before. Below 1500’ might struggle with temps though imo.
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Here’s my most recent forecast map.
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Put my initial map out this am.
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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
Hvward replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
6z NAVGEM Total Precip through hr 84. Looks to be all frozen in a least the mountains and foothills. One can wish right? NAVGEM hasn't let down though. -
The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
Hvward replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
6z NAVGEM still sharpening the base of the trough and absolutely hammer the western part of NC. Looks good for Upstate SC and parts of NE GA as well. RDU to CLT could be the battleground (of course). -
The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
Hvward replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Been watching the NAVGEM for the past few days and it has been pretty consistent (minus on run yesterday) with the LP being captured hanging right off the coast. Showed a deformation feature Monday afternoon. Monday 18z Wednesday 00z -
Sunrise and the beginning of leaf season on the Blue Ridge Parkway from Craggy Pinnacle
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