forkyfork
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Everything posted by forkyfork
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1-3+ in this zone over the next few hours imo
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would be nice to get an hrrr initialization that's accurate
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the outflow boundary is sinking south and we'll start to fill in shortly
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if you read the latest meso discussion that's exactly what they describe happening
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"wahh it's not flooding here" posts are getting deleted from now on <3
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every run of the hrrr edges a little more southeast
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you're not getting missed
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the 3k hits the metro with a secondary low later tonight
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
forkyfork replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
i'm telling randy to take your powers away -
this looks significant enough for its own thread By evening instances of 3-6" locally will become increasingly plausible with 00z HREF probability fields greater than 60% from DC to N VT (with spots near 90-100% for 3" and 30-60% of 5" across NE PA/N NJ to S VT. 00z Hi-Res CAMs have trended slightly eastward to align more favorably to the greatest 14-day precipitation over 300% of climatological normal axis extending from near Baltimore to Philly to N NJ and W MA, suggesting increased runoff potential for these. As the surface wave advances toward the New York Bight by early morning, increased low level flow, will advect unstable across across S NY/New England and with continued isentropic ascent through warm conveyor belt along/north of the surface low, additional efficient thunderstorms a likely to linger overnight, in proximity to SE NY/SW New England as well as into south facing terrain making a more likely scenario for flash flooding. As such, the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall was shifted eastward slightly to account for the guidance trends.
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hooray
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whenever we get a ridge bridge it's going to be awful. i genuinely don't want it
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not one below normal 850mb panel on the entire run of the eps
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next week might be rushing it but i think we start breaking off some of the western heat within the next 10 days
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first 100s of the summer next week?
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three
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our cold water nightmare is over
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ewr is now two 90s ahead of july 2009
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storms fired early enough to organize despite the worsening upper levels
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we deserve this
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this it the 4th time i've gotten hail this summer
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we want this vort max around 21z not 15z
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height rises and nva after 18z, i'm pessimistic about our storm chances
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we have the most pedantic office in the country
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i'm starting to think this won't be like 2009
