forkyfork

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It can end up anywhere but the point is someone's going to get it

we'll have a good idea when the first showers start developing later tonight

i have no idea where the band is going to set up

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Last 4 nam runs. Definitely shifting the heaviest axis

more starts firing up in snj though

10" max in nnj on the hrrr

this would be a serious event if the nam verifies

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, first half of October is indian summer.

need a frost for that 

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Another weekend inland SNE doesn't crack 60. Make it stop

ok

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It's like trying to say you have snowpack when the grass is greening in 85% of your yard, but you're hanging on to the last patch of crusty glacier behind a Hemlock. 

the ACATT crowd has been doing this shit for over a decade

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Regular NAM and NAM 3K are laughably different for Friday. 3k has the rain over E LI and Cape Cod, regular NAM blasts NJ. These inverted trough type events are very fickle as we all know. 

take a wintertime norlun trough and add warm season convection. very difficult forecast 

we could be looking at a significant flood event friday if some of the meso models are correct

extent gets more and more irrelevant as the ice cover thins out. 15% coverage of thin floes is not the same as 100% coverage of thick ice 

do not want

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Over 2 for the storm so far…

 

pouring currently 

another 12-16 hours to go

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Sure, very similar for round one, which is a massive bust and the main debate for the past few days.  The heavy band well ahead of the storm did not happen.  Not sure why no one can acknowledge this, those who tossed the heavy rain from round one (today) from the city NE were correct.

NAM radar from round one

reality is widely scattered showers, there is no convection whatsoever

that gfs map is already too low in most of nj/nyc and there are 18 hours to go lol

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll get a good hit with the remnant low tomorrow, probably a lot more than today.

a training band could pop up at any time before it arrives

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Setting aside the fact that you've posted a 30 hour map when the GFS has more precip output from Ophelia out to 66 hours you seemingly have chosen to ignore the other globals and mesos which have 2+ inches of rain for a large portion of the region. 

that map is already too low in parts of nj

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

All that dry air on the East side of the circulation makes me think it will dry out after the initial heavy rain tomorrow AM. Looks like most of the heavy stuff gets pushed into SNE. We’ll see. 

it's always looked like a fronto round sat morning/afternoon followed by showery precip and then another round of steady heavy rain with the the remnant low

omg, the models that have been waffling around have waffled again

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Which is why I wouldn't be overconfident about our area getting a ton of rain this weekend. It might happen or it might not. Look at all the events we had this summer. Some overperformed big-time and some were big busts. The models are wildly inconsistent. 

your 10 mile run is in trouble, sorry

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I just completed a summary of past eleven years of Am-Wx forecast contest analysis, take a victory lap NYC sub-forum, in 128 tries, your crew won about 1/2 of contests, led by Don S (about 30 wins) and RJay. Fun fact, ten years ago in Oct 2013, forkyfork won one, possibly only one entered, as I didn't spot name often. Analysis is in current September forecast contest in main general interest forum (walk carefully if you go in, a lot of lapsed members sleeping in doorways over in main forum). Don't wake 'em up!

i have a 100% win record. cool

pwats get close to 2". so much dry air @winterwx21

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

3k nam for tomorrow 

much stronger with the low on this run. dumpage coming 

bumping for this weekend

sun into mon might bust high if the models are too fast to spin down the system