forkyfork

these dewpoints are so refreshing. hopefully they return toward the end of the month

53 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

85 on Christmas?  No thanks

yeah we need 90

there are studies that show we're getting mjo waves more frequently in phases 4-6 which correlates to warmth in the east

22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think a lot of people have an unrealistic view of the past when it comes to winter wx. It certainly was colder, but it wasn't Quebec City either and the snow climatology was not 1925 BOS being equal to present day ORH or even present day BED....and a lot of the warming doesn't manifest in cyclogenesis anyway....rather in the milder patterns intruding into the region during more unfavorable hemispheric longwave setups and in radiational cooling spots during calm nights.

CC really needs to be thought of in terms of probability on the tails which usually makes people's eyes glaze over, so I understand why its often dumbed down for the masses. But what it really means is that we've increased the chances of record warm events but this does not magically eliminate natural variability either. There's a reason we had our coldest month of all time in 2015 after over a century of CC....natural variation still is the dominant player on smaller timescales such as months and seasons. But when you get a canonical warm pattern, CC helps that become more likely to be record warmth versus 100 years ago. 

isn't the warmer west pacific focusing tropical forcing in a region that's unfavorable for eastern us cold?

given the blocking pattern we're probably getting something significant 

newark making it to 85 this late on se winds is still impressive 

my outlook:

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

banger title change, mods are still nerds tho

not cool enough to be nerds

my winter forecast

houses close to beaches need to be outlawed

39 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Montauk was warmer than the park lol

but newark!!!

so the park was almost three degrees cooler than the heliport on a monthly average? lol

On 9/27/2023 at 6:02 PM, qg_omega said:

Upton not impressed

&& .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall from Thu night into Sat somewhat uncertain. Areas from NYC north/west and across SE CT/eastern Long Island appear most likely to see at least 1-1.5 inches. A stronger offshore trough/low could Fri into Sat could result in heavier rain of over 2 inches for parts of SE CT/eastern Long Island. Duration of this rainfall should limit any hydrologic impact.

 

bump

18 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Not as bad as this would have

bump

18 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Yes getting more realistic 1 to 4 depending on location

bump

Just now, uofmiami said:

They'll be swimming and enjoying themselves unfortunately

ida killed loads of them

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/rat-carcasses-wash-ashore-in-new-york-city-after-hurricane-ida-180978686/

bump

prayers for all the rats drowning today

we'll exceed this event within 5 years

the hrrr won't change after this run

Just now, Allsnow said:

Between 6am and 9am…horrible timing 

it's going well past 9 am

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Through 10z it was east then it went west

this run crushes us

hrrr has slowly been inching west

axis so far looks to be forming over nj/nyc to me