forkyfork

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro op has a very chilly Halloween 

and several days of potential record warmth before that

On 10/18/2023 at 7:42 AM, Allsnow said:

Ensembles showing first decent cold shot around Halloween as the trough moves out the west 

disappearing 

oops

i would buy it and frame the pages

Just now, nycwinter said:

blustery cold morning here in the city.. i should have worn gloves my hands were so cold...

maybe you have a thyroid condition

maybe a one storm winter with that storm getting blocked south of new england?

if they run out of names do they use greek letters

zyler's gonna be the big one

just think: in winter all this rain will translate to colder rain

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

A winter like 09/10 would be a blessing after last year

you mean people here would enjoy a repeat of nyc's snowiest february on record? wow

lots of ninos on that list

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The cold coming up doesn’t look too impressive for October. But it will certainly feel that way due to the 80s to start the month. So it’s all relative.
 

 

 

we keep getting these well mixed cool shots where the coldest anomalies are in the mid levels

october 1997 had a warm start with a below average finish

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Welcome to the 1980s and 1990s.

the 80s were frigid

maybe some waterspouts in this 

robbed

the hrrr has an 8" max in ne nj

be careful what you wish for

these dewpoints are so refreshing. hopefully they return toward the end of the month

53 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

85 on Christmas?  No thanks

yeah we need 90

there are studies that show we're getting mjo waves more frequently in phases 4-6 which correlates to warmth in the east

22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think a lot of people have an unrealistic view of the past when it comes to winter wx. It certainly was colder, but it wasn't Quebec City either and the snow climatology was not 1925 BOS being equal to present day ORH or even present day BED....and a lot of the warming doesn't manifest in cyclogenesis anyway....rather in the milder patterns intruding into the region during more unfavorable hemispheric longwave setups and in radiational cooling spots during calm nights.

CC really needs to be thought of in terms of probability on the tails which usually makes people's eyes glaze over, so I understand why its often dumbed down for the masses. But what it really means is that we've increased the chances of record warm events but this does not magically eliminate natural variability either. There's a reason we had our coldest month of all time in 2015 after over a century of CC....natural variation still is the dominant player on smaller timescales such as months and seasons. But when you get a canonical warm pattern, CC helps that become more likely to be record warmth versus 100 years ago. 

isn't the warmer west pacific focusing tropical forcing in a region that's unfavorable for eastern us cold?