buckeye

actually about the same after looking at snowfall map

the nam is refusing to budge, in fact it appears it might have nudged north and keeps the low alive longer into s. WV

Ha! I nailed it actually I’ve been reading iln discussions for so many years It becomes easy to guess what they’re gonna do. Even nailed the 3 to 6 inches. Maybe I should quit my day job Now let’s see if I’m right and they end up switching Franklin county over to a winter storm warning once the snow starts. That’s another thing they seem to do quite a bit of, Most of our winter storm warnings aren’t a result of a watch going to a warning they are usually advisories going to warnings.

on a lighter note, both the euro and gfs have snow moving back in by 156hr. It's kind of an unusual set up with a low to our north and a positively tilted trough... ...what could possible go wrong

euro is remarkably unchanged. At this point it's time for the short term models. I'd really like to see the rgem juice up. The track isn't horrible but it's drying up the snow big time as the low transfers before it gets into WV. Really need that primary to hang on a little longer....same old same old issues lol

I’m guessing, ILN will put those northern tear of watches over to advisories and leave the warning counties as warnings. Unless we see something dramatic with the euro which is very unlikely at this point. Probably something like 3 to 6 across Columbus 2 to 4 once you get into Delaware County. Admittedly, i feel like that’s conservative, but my guess on what they go with. I’ll throw out my guess later. But recently, how many times have we seen advisories get upgraded back to warnings once the storm evolves hopefully that’ll be what happens this time.

there have been a handful of storms here in Central Ohio over the last several decades that were forecasted to give us 6+ inches of snow 24 hours out and busted. Every one of those busts was a result of a last minute push north with the precip and the warm nose shutting off the precip, or changing it to sleet or rain. Not a single bust was a result of the snow shield not making it far enough north or being shunted south. I'm not saying that can't happen, but when I've seen it happen in other places, it's a result of a very strong arctic high just to the north pressing harder than models were forecasting. Granted, I'd much rather see a more neutral to neg tilted trough if I'm hoping for a surprise northern push, but I still think an unexpected northern push of precip has a better chance than a southern miss if those are the only two choices.

Kids definitely make it fun. I can’t wait to take my 2yr old granddaughter in the snow. She’s so curious and excited about everything…she’ll be fun to watch. Although at this point she might be 15 by the time she sees her first big snow if her mom and dad stay in Columbus.

And yet us cmh’ers are tying our nooses… that’s how much faith we have in the American models.

About the same…if you stare at it long enough you might be able to convince yourself it ticked stronger and north

the difference between the euro and gfs is crazy. Unfortunately the euro team also has the uk on it's side. The gem kinda splits the diff. So, does the gfs ever win a battle like this inside 60 hours or is it ALWAYS the euro?

gfs doubling down, may even be slightly north. crazy stuff at 60 hours out

I'm hugging the 48hr. 18z HRRR like a lifeboat on the titanic.

killjoy

this fv3 model any good? God I miss the DGEX #grasping

SMH, really is unbelievable. We fail incredibly well here.

euro holds to it's southern solution....

that would be the heartbreak zone

NAM didn't suck but it did slightly go south. Basically 2 parts to this storm. First is the WAA followed by the passing of the ULL. Best snow usually comes from the waa, at least around here, but sometimes those ULL can surprise too. You want to be just to the north of that low when it passes, right now NAM has it scooting from about Lexington to Charleson WV, (something to watch for). Either way it's starting to look like the jackpot is pretty narrow, only a few counties wide so details are everything....gonna be some heartbreak with this one. Wish it was more widespread share the wealth kind of storm.

it seems like the only time there is a last minute significant shift north is when it screws us and we go from snow to slop... But who knows. My memory is probably failing me, but the last most infamous sudden shift north inside of 48hrs was the presidents day weekend storm in 2003. I suppose the models have improved in the last 22 years though lol.

I'm thinking most likely scenario is minimal warning event for Franklin county south.... Probably advisory for Delaware and a couple of tiers north. When ALL the models are showing you dead-center in the heaviest snow 4 days out...and we get shut out or DAB, you have to wonder what the hell are we even doing here. early call for mby, 3-5"

well there's always that break the glass weenie rule: energy isn't on shore yet....let's see if better sampling changes things

hard to ignore euro’s south trend which continues at 6z.

More concerned with a south trend …Euro looking scary, it is really heading that way and some of the other models are starting to trend that way too. Really surprised because these kind of systems almost always trend stronger further north. 12z runs will be telling whether it’s a flip or a flop.

ILN put up a WWA for tonight.... 1-2" I think that might be our first of the season?