buckeye

seemed low but only goes through Sunday 7am

can't see what's going on along the MA.... but that looks like a wrist-slitter for those guys

long time no read my friend.... hopefully we can score this

dude....cincy and towns along the ohio rive are ground zero for big snows west of the apps. If we get 6-10 you guys are easily 12+

Model consistency has really lined up. I like where we are along i70. We have some breathing room for a last minute nudge north, since the heaviest snow right now looks like southern Ohio along the river. Actually more worried about dry air and push south vs a big push north. ILN referenced the challenge of the initial push of moisture overcoming the dry air. Gotta wonder if we have hours of a virga storm to start..

Temps are gonna be a story, not so much for extreme record lows, rather the duration of the cold. Flipping through the euro for mby, the period starting this Sunday til the end of it's run, (Feb 5), our highest temp is 20 degrees. Just as strange, the lowest temp is like -10 which granted is probably a record for whichever day it occurs, but it's not really that crazy considering the snowpack we should have throughout that time frame. Usually these cold waves that hit this time of year with a snow pack almost always have a few days with stupid cold that rival all time cold record, (Dec 1989 -18 and Jan 1994 -22). The other thing with these types of periods is when the back breaks with the pattern, it's usually done for the winter.... (old man winter blows his load, then shuts the lights and goes to bed)

probably tomorrow those watches will expand to the east coast and up more through OH and IN meaning almost 1/4 of the US mainland will be under a winterstorm watch or warning.

noticed that as well. Also the northern stream is a little faster too which keeps the trough more positively tilted and you don't get time for a solid phase and a stronger primary. Personally I wouldn't mind a 'tad' more phasing. I don't mind smelling sleet and I'll even eat a little sleet if it results in a widespread hit for our sub.

I've never seen a snowstorm that buried Chicago-Detroit-DC. If Chicago picks up 9" from this, DC would probably be slop to rain

GFS does it all over one week later.... except more of an app runner look

always a possibility, but remember ... the winner is whoever gets closest to the mix line without going over. There is a caveat too, if mix plays in, it would come at the end of this and after one hell of an overrunning thump. Someone mentioned Jan 1999, that's what happened with that storm, we picked up 9" before it changed to drizzle, and that storm drove up well west of us, (I think the low went up into Indiana).

December 1989 was the last time I recall such widespread brutal cold across the whole conus. We hit -18 at the peak of that coldwave. When it broke, winter was over.

if the trend on that 18z euro continues with more and more of a big phase....Josh might be reeling this one in.

that only happens when we're in the bullseye....when the system is progged south of us there's no such thing as nw trend

Still about 4 days out from depicted start of snow. That's an eternity when you have to deal with a northern stream feature interacting with a sw feature and a pv. Really need that sw to phase in better with the ns dropping down, and we know how that always seems to go. Did notice that HP was weaker and further north as the system rolled east on the euro. That's really what 'saved' us, and offset the weaker phasing and allowed the precip to still come further north. No feeling in my gut on this one. I can absolutely see the phasing falling apart leading to a 12zgfs-esque solution. All it takes would be the ns to speed up and the sw to hang back....that seems to be a common scenario over the last several winters, (failed phasing with a quicker ns). Still, the option for something bigger is definitely on the table too, especially with the temps during the snowfall leading to high ratios. I think one fail option we can take off the table...wtod Either way, this type of system is fun to track on the modeling.

the weekend has one of my eyebrows in raised position First 'potential' big one worth tracking for the OV in a long time. This type of scenario is what makes tracking fun. Being on the edge 5 days out and hoping for a shift. We've seen too many of these monsters bully north, sometimes to our benefit, (PD2003 and Feb2010), and often to our demise, (Feb 13, 2007).

I lost 52 inches of snow in 6 hours

I was going to post this simply because in all my 30 years of weenie fantasy model watching...this is a first. By far. That being said, even if the gfs has the right idea with a massive overrunning event at that range, the congrats goes to Chicago to Detroit because the gfs is infamously always too far south in the medium/lr. Still, one to save for entertainment value.

record high incoming tomorrow... too bad it has to come with rain though

unless it's snowing or there is an existing snow pack to preserve for Christmas day, the higher the temp the better. Who the heck would like 30 or 40s and brown over 60's?

punt'n Jan?

Amen

from cosgrove: see what I mean about all of that "Phase 8" nonsense that was the talk of the internet?). Remind yourself that for an MJO cold influence in North America, the lead impulse should be between Phases 6 and 1, be very strong, and have at least some connection to the polar westerlies. I always thought phases 3-6 correlated for warmth in our area

solidly negative pna for the foreseeable. If the mjo heads back into the COD and exits into 4,5 then the only hope will be a herculean block to develop and that may only partially save the easterners. Other than that we might end up going full blown torch. I'm going to Hawaii in Feb. Hmmmm, last time I went to Hawaii was January 2012 #Forch #Morch

I got rid of my snowblower this past summer. I was sick and tired of having to reset the tires on the rims every fall and struggle with getting it to start. For the last several winters I think I used it once or twice, other than that it took up garage space and collected dust. Of course now we've had two snowfalls in the last few weeks that I could have used it already.