buckeye

If January is going to be lame then bring on a 2012 Feb and March redux!

Indices are brutal as far as the models go out..... +AO, +NAO, PNA neutral going to negative, +EPO, and MJO moving from COD into 6 and 5. We need something to shake things up badly. in the meantime.... Merry Christmas

Now c'mon....March '08 was only 11 years ago

Definitely a top 5 winter event.for me. Heavy snow followed by a quarter inch of ice made for the most beautiful Christmas Eve and Day landscape ever. Of course not so much for the poor folks without electricity through the holidays.

Hope I'm wrong because I love a good snowy January....but I think some of these calls I'm seeing for a positive change soon after New Years, especially for the southeast half of the sub, are dubious at best. I'm basing this on the indices (ao, nao, epo, and mjo) looking pretty blah if not outright hostile in the long term. Hope it turns around and we can get a memorable stretch in January.

I'll take 2.5 more months. You can have second half of March and April....yuck

You know it ain't good when the gfs starts losing its usual 300+ hour fantasy Arctic outbreaks.

Shuffling deck chairs on the titanic

It's not about chasing the almighty dollar. It is possible to love what you do, but only have an opportunity to do it in certain climates. I literally could not have my business in a place where winter was 9 months out of the year and there are more moose than people. All that aside, I guess I'm a weenie, but not a finatic. I love snow storms and a couple of weeks of snow cover in the depth of winter....but that's it. Regardless of economics, I could never live in a place where the snow cover is deep and consistent for months on end....I'd be busting down a bathroom door with an axe yelling 'here's Johnny' in no time. It would ruin snow for me. What keeps me hungry is the fact that it isn't common in the first place, every 6"+ snow storm is essentially a novelty down here....and that's perfectly fine.

I know, right.... I moved here because I was told Columbus was a snow town, I'm so p*ssed. I just hope the person advising me to move to the back woods of the UP for economic opportunity isn't bullsh*tting me too.

Meh, I think we picked up 2" with the Sunday night portion, advisory was 2-4, so technically... Last night's part 2 was definitely a bust but it looks like it was a widespread bust for the northern portion of this. I wonder if all the severe stuff down south stole the thunder up north...or is that just an old meteorologists wives tale.

Had the exact same thought when it came in last night....almost looked like fake snow. Big slow-falling flakes.

We have certainly become a cynical bunch here in central ohio...first winter headline of the season and cue the crickets .

Lighting the Yule torch....

As I said awhile back....its all fluff until it's inside of 48hrs showing the same solution on the euro plus 2 additional major models. Scoring in this pattern is like trying to get a rabbit pregnant by throwing it in a tumbling dryer with 10 other horny rabbits. Sure it can happen but there's gonna be a lot more thump'n and bump'n before any hump'n.

Lest we forget, we live in Central Ohio.

The euro weeklies thru the 24th of January has a snowfall mean for us of 8-10" I'm thinking it's 20-30 pennies, 8 -10 nickles, and a dime or 2.

lol this would have to be pretty darn close to a record

Wavy-ass long wave pattern is gonna be generating all kinds of fantasy storms on the models. Best advise is not to raise an eyebrow on any solution until the gfs, euro, and ggem all have the same thing inside 96 hrs....then you can do 2 eyebrows if it remains inside 48hrs.

Oh well, so much for consensus. Also. starting to look like a fairly boring...aka average...December setting up. Lots of dreary gray days with temps in the 30s and 40s. Probably a few post-cutter nickels and dimes as well. Actually glad to see the depth of these Arctic shots muting as lead time shortens. We're so back logged with work the last thing I need right now is the ground freezing up. Get us to December 24th and then crank up the snow machine!

all obvious caveats aside.... time of year, geography, and lead time.... ...there's a pretty impressive signal from the euro and gfs ensembles of an OV threat day 10. Notable because of the agreement across models this far out.

So wxbell revised their winter forecast to go slightly colder in Dec and significantly colder in Feb. Main reasoning is an almost exact match to 2013/14, (I can literally hear the drool hitting the floor in here), and 2002/03 SST. Of course the chaos factor always seems to b*tch slap down even the best matching analogs. Winter forecasts are all over the place this year. Usually you have a common thread with a few outliers, but this year I've seen forecasts that are total opposites of each other, (especially in month to month breakdowns). Should be interesting to see the winners and losers come April.

Agree, it's actually a pretty close to normal call for our area. This winter is looking pretty run of the mill. Would be nice to get one blockbuster event with a long lead up....something us folks in central ohio have not had in several winters. Otherwise it will end up in the overflowing file of forgotten winters.

Don has always done a nice job. I think last winter was his first bad bust since reading his winter outlooks over the years. In fairness lots of Mets went way too bullish last year with all the "winter of yore" calls. You never know, but I personally wouldn't bet on Don busting 2 in a row.

so I had to check out the source, I couldn't help myself....after all we have a blizzard warning about once in 10 years around here....so several in one winter would be quite the feat. lol His reasoning for the Big Blizzard area is based on his expection for frequent deepening low pressure areas off the new england coast due to unusually warm water in the northeast....(yes because we all know that's the classic textbook setup for big blizzards in Ohio and IN). I hope this guy isn't actually a meterologist.