buckeye

if you pull off 6" from a storm tracking to your nw in this garbage pattern.... ....that'll confirm my suspicion all along that you've been in possession of a sex tape of old man winter

I have NO doubt....

c'mon, if it was showing the polar vortex over Cleveland it would fit nicely with the calls for the end of this garbage pattern and no one would say a thing. The point is if anything is going to show a flip to cold....it's the long range gfs. It was for awhile, and now those looks are becoming muted more and more. I've got other arguments as well.... have you seen the latest mjo? What's the argument for the flip? Trust me...i hope i'm eating crow a week from now... and yes, we'll definitely get a cold shot after the slop storm....but I'm just not seeing us leaving this repeated back and forth, garbage pattern.

Concensus among the weather community.... Pattern change commences January 20th. Day 11 of pattern change :

For all those calling for a change to a more sustained wintry pattern late Jan heading into Feb..... ....better get these guys the memo

if this is where we are 10 days from now....I'm not seeing a pattern change. Same old craptastic, wavy, fast moving, cold air-lacking, hoping-for-a ---well- timed wobble to accidentally fall into some snow.... pattern.

some of our best snows have come as front end thumps to slop....however...they almost always occur when deep cold has been in place for awhile. This would be an unusual set up for a good front end frozen thump. We are essentially at or above normal temps for a few days and then a weak front backs in and drops us to near normal or slighty below right before the waa precip comes in. Seems to me the cold air is going to lose out much quicker than what the models are implying. We would need a wholesale change in the track of the low for me to get excited about this one.

maybe there'll be a severe aspect to track with this one?

Good point. Also, no way a respectable storm is trending south in this stew of meterological indice garbage. It either keeps heading nw or it dissolves and ends up a putrid weak reflection that slides under us and out to sea....(like this week's situation)

definitely no respect for the models in here...lol

it's so true. I can't think of a scenario where the euro was showing a wound up low, (say sub 990), in the long range, that ended up verifying stronger.....(unless it's a coastal low). 9 time out of 10 they weaken, flatten, shear out to nothing, or just disappear all together.

I trust nothing, especially the euro. I was really focusing and following the 'threat' that was showing for this coming week. If you recall, it started as a major low cutting to the lower lakes with a lot of wind and snow on the nw flanks. It then started to look like a Josh special with the low cutting through Ohio. Then came our turn with a few runs of the low tracking through KY. Now, it looks like it will end up a sloppy, slushy 1-2" event for DC. I see Chicago just ninja'd me

Over definitely. Like pondo said, we always find a way to scratch ourselves to near normal, and typically that happens in March and April. It'll be another forgettable winter though.

Agree. 40 and rain is nothing more than an agonizing reminder of what could have been whereas 50s and 60s has a way of making you forget winter.

seen that light before

When you proclaimed awhile back that this was going to be your winter, was that because you love nap time?

Oh I have no doubt snow storm threads will be popping and hopping in March and April.... ....the new f**king norm

Models are all over the place with a 3-4 day storm....and not just a little bit.

What determines whether it's a cutter or not is the geography of the poster. Of course that's a cutter to snowlover2....what's he suppose to call that? A hit? An app runner is a cutter to the i95 crew. A Milwaukee special is a cutter to you and a Fargo crusher is a cutter to Milwaukee. Happy New Year!

It's really hard to imagine any storm not cutting well nw of us under this current pattern. Even the temporary cold shots will probably become muted as long range turns into short range. Not being a downer....we are just in an absolutely hostile pattern for winter storms, at least through the first 10 days of January and probably well beyond.

+ao /+nao/ +epo/ -pna/ I'm dubious of anything that looks like this/\

Kind of interesting. JB posted the MJO chart for the winter of '78 and amazingly, the late January blizzard occurred in the midst of phase 5 and then it traveled all the way through 6. Obviously it's all about trying to figure out which indice is going to be the driver.

True....assuming in a perfect world you get a stretch of near normal temps and storms riding more west to east....or one big block buster in the middle of a zzzzz book-ended pattern. How often do those things happen? The reality around here is we get a cutter that sends our temps soaring into the 50's followed by a cold front that drops us into the 20's....so yea, overall we end up with average temps and higher precip but it's predominantly rain and flurries. To get a lot of snow it usually requires a storm to go southeast of us or a clipper pattern, which almost always means colder than normal temps.

I think Don S. and Isotherm are looking the best so far that I've seen....granted it's very early so it's still any forecaster's game. Roger Smith, OTOH......he was touting an early winter thru December (for the east), turning around on New Year's.

At this point the only fun thing to look forward to is the impending JB video meltdown. Already started to sound crazed in his vid a couple days ago, "this doesn't make sense...I don't understand...I think the models are missing something..." Wxbell changed their winter forecast a few weeks ago to go even colder in December thru Feb...