buckeye

if you pull off 6" from a storm tracking to your nw in this garbage pattern.... ....that'll confirm my suspicion all along that you've been in possession of a sex tape of old man winter

I have NO doubt....

c'mon, if it was showing the polar vortex over Cleveland it would fit nicely with the calls for the end of this garbage pattern and no one would say a thing. The point is if anything is going to show a flip to cold....it's the long range gfs. It was for awhile, and now those looks are becoming muted more and more. I've got other arguments as well.... have you seen the latest mjo? What's the argument for the flip? Trust me...i hope i'm eating crow a week from now... and yes, we'll definitely get a cold shot after the slop storm....but I'm just not seeing us leaving this repeated back and forth, garbage pattern.

Concensus among the weather community.... Pattern change commences January 20th. Day 11 of pattern change :

For all those calling for a change to a more sustained wintry pattern late Jan heading into Feb..... ....better get these guys the memo

if this is where we are 10 days from now....I'm not seeing a pattern change. Same old craptastic, wavy, fast moving, cold air-lacking, hoping-for-a ---well- timed wobble to accidentally fall into some snow.... pattern.

some of our best snows have come as front end thumps to slop....however...they almost always occur when deep cold has been in place for awhile. This would be an unusual set up for a good front end frozen thump. We are essentially at or above normal temps for a few days and then a weak front backs in and drops us to near normal or slighty below right before the waa precip comes in. Seems to me the cold air is going to lose out much quicker than what the models are implying. We would need a wholesale change in the track of the low for me to get excited about this one.

Does this come in a slide rule? Sperry and Piltz forgot to factor in the squirrel-weight index.

there's an old saying about getting thunderstorms in winter.... accumulating snows a week to 10 days later. Granted, it's cheezy almanacian fluff, but I gotta tell ya....it does seem to happen more often than not.

True....We were on the freezing rain side of GHD Chicago Blizzard. They issued an icestorm warning and Kasich, (who was our gov at the time), held an emergency new conference to warn of the impending ice disaster. As the rain moved in we started getting some accretion the first hour or two...after that the rain got heavy and in spite of the below freezing temps the heavy rain killed the icestorm. The best icestorms happen with prolonged light rain.

that's all that's left of the blizzard you and Alek were suppose to get from 10 days ago.. .it's the rotting carcass falling to the ground and rolling off the coast.

70?!?!?!....in January?!?!?!?..... OH HELL YES!

Man, you guys do NOT need another wet winter into spring. I still couldn't believe all the flooding driving back to Columbus from Marion after my daughter's graduation last May.

Which depending on geography, wasn't necessarily saying much. I still have nightmares of that Feb'07 storm... 12" of snow predicted the morning of = .3" of sleet by nightfall.

that Bermuda high at 84 means business

...which was preceeded by the hostile December pattern when talk of the New Year's turn around was all the chatter amongst the weenie class.

maybe there'll be a severe aspect to track with this one?

Good point. Also, no way a respectable storm is trending south in this stew of meterological indice garbage. It either keeps heading nw or it dissolves and ends up a putrid weak reflection that slides under us and out to sea....(like this week's situation)

definitely no respect for the models in here...lol

it's so true. I can't think of a scenario where the euro was showing a wound up low, (say sub 990), in the long range, that ended up verifying stronger.....(unless it's a coastal low). 9 time out of 10 they weaken, flatten, shear out to nothing, or just disappear all together.

I trust nothing, especially the euro. I was really focusing and following the 'threat' that was showing for this coming week. If you recall, it started as a major low cutting to the lower lakes with a lot of wind and snow on the nw flanks. It then started to look like a Josh special with the low cutting through Ohio. Then came our turn with a few runs of the low tracking through KY. Now, it looks like it will end up a sloppy, slushy 1-2" event for DC. I see Chicago just ninja'd me

Over definitely. Like pondo said, we always find a way to scratch ourselves to near normal, and typically that happens in March and April. It'll be another forgettable winter though.

Agree. 40 and rain is nothing more than an agonizing reminder of what could have been whereas 50s and 60s has a way of making you forget winter.

seen that light before

When you proclaimed awhile back that this was going to be your winter, was that because you love nap time?