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Radtechwxman

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Everything posted by Radtechwxman

  1. Radtechwxman
    Yeah follow up storm on edge of waa snows is just more west and north so draws up a big slug of warm air so precip goes all liquid. Euro further south with baroclinic zone and develops low much further south and cuts it more east. Allows for good waa snows than a nice wraparound with low.
  2. Radtechwxman
    GFS still not playing nice on 18z
  3. Radtechwxman
    Funny GFS was the one being aggressive with this before and euro not as much now gfs barely has anything and Euro has really uptrended. Definitely keeping my expectations low. At least we got an active pattern ahead.
  4. Radtechwxman
    They going to do an intermediate advisory or wait till next main one at 5am?
  5. Radtechwxman
    What's the difference between these and the extrapolated pressures? How do they derive the extrapolated pressures?
  6. Radtechwxman
    Seems to be pretty steady state despite a very impressive IR appearance
  7. Radtechwxman
    Pressure up on 8pm advisory and winds stayed same. I honestly thought pressure may be down and winds up based on how satellite looked.
  8. Radtechwxman
    Melissa definitely looks to be doing a loop. Might make an abrupt ne turn soon. Only took 85 years.
  9. Radtechwxman
    It's really looking like it could barely clip the west side of Jamaica at this point. Most if not all models had the ne turn by now didn't they? Melissa seems to be doing it's own thing and defying models. Definitely not evolving at all how I expected track wise. Way more west than I ever expected.
  10. Radtechwxman
    It's really been hugging that left edge of nhc track though. Would hate to be forecasting this or chasing this.
  11. Radtechwxman
    Seriously really starting to wonder if this is going to clip far western Jamaica. It's going to need to make a hard right turn
  12. Radtechwxman
    Not even the strongest quadrant. Absolutely insane
  13. Radtechwxman
    Definitely eager to see that data and hopefully they get a good pass through the eye
  14. Radtechwxman
    Is this the plane that will issue the 5am advisory or will another flight follow this?
  15. Radtechwxman
    I really thought this was going to be a cat 5 now especially given the satellite estimates and what data they're getting now. So confused.
  16. Radtechwxman
    Looks like north turn may be in process of happening now
  17. Radtechwxman
    Apparently hurricane hunters are struggling to hit the eye because it's small and turbulence. Hopefully they get a good sample before having to head back.
  18. Radtechwxman
    Seems like pressure has been steadily dropping all day but winds struggling to catch up. Based on these pressures and satellite look I would think this would be cat 5 now but feel like something has been holding back the winds some.
  19. Radtechwxman
    Are they finding any higher winds along with these big pressure drops?
  20. Radtechwxman
    That is true. As far as intensity and surge impacts but the more west it goes the more rural areas the core of hurricane will impact. However the surge and extreme rainfall impacts will still be impactful well east into more populated areas.
  21. Radtechwxman
    Seems like some hurricane models and other hi res guidance are favoring a more west track before a north turn now which would keep it away from more dense population and hit more rural areas.
  22. Radtechwxman
    That is a massive drop from last recon mission. Im guessing winds will be upgraded to 150-155 if they get data to support it which I think they will.
  23. Radtechwxman
    https://x.com/pettuswx/status/1982527974378217764?s=49
  24. Radtechwxman
    IR satellite imagery really starting to ramp up again. Cloud tops rapidly cooling especially in the southern part of the circulation.
  25. Radtechwxman
    Very fascinating stuff. Thank you for sharing
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