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Radtechwxman

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Everything posted by Radtechwxman

  1. Radtechwxman
    Gfs being stubborn. Clipper like system to nor'easter transition. It's not wanting to do a GLC. Either it will be the lone model right or completely wrong.
  2. Radtechwxman
    Funny b/c gfs was the model originally showing a GLC and really wound up sfc low for many runs and then it started bouncing all over the place. Now euro is the one showing this with some support from other global guidance. No way we will get something as extreme as 12z euro but even half that would be amazing. Gfs seems like it is baby stepping towards its original solution. Would like to see it cut more west and track a little more north than 18z showed.
  3. Radtechwxman
    Lol 12z euro if only
  4. Radtechwxman
    Right?! Wishcasting keeps the forum lively. Definitely eager to see how this pattern shift pans out. Would be a shame to see all this cold air go to waste but wouldn't be first time. Ha
  5. Radtechwxman
    Not to get our hopes up for a good storm in long range or not get sucked in run to run on every model or both? Ha
  6. Radtechwxman
    Yeah that 06z run of gfs was pretty depressing. Lol. A lot of cold and no snow. No thank you. Hopefully some kind of storm comes back on later runs. GFS has been fluctuating a lot. Honestly euro has as well. Man I want a white Xmas for a change. Plus I hate just cold and dry. Give me some snow!
  7. Radtechwxman
    Man we can dream right? 0z euro is dream run but feel like a gfs like solution will end up being more plausible with some posdible advisory criteria snowfall with arctic front. A big storm would be nice but not getting my hopes up. GFS was showing something similar to euro before but hasn't had it for days now. Curious to see this in nam's range.
  8. Radtechwxman
    Pretty much sounds like they will go high at some point. Parameters def support it. Storm mode is my main concern but like Quincy said, the hodos will support at least semi-discrete supercells even if shear vectors aren't completely perpendicular to initiating waa regime.
  9. Radtechwxman
    14z hrrr is a potent run. Trio of long track supercells emerging out of ne LA into central MS with some intense, long helicity tracks.
  10. Radtechwxman
    18z nam has a very concerning scenario and likely nocturnal tornado event
  11. Radtechwxman
    The sweet spot in the Delta
  12. Radtechwxman
    This thread sure is dead for a enhanced risk in late Nov. This definitely has some synoptic similarities to Dec 10, 2021. Will it be of that caliber? Probably not. But definitely bears watching.
  13. Radtechwxman
    I thought you meant for your home in Hamburg. I was like your pictures told a way different story. Lol
  14. Radtechwxman
    That's all they said for your location??
  15. Radtechwxman
    Did you mean Hamburg? Because Buffalo is currently north of the band
  16. Radtechwxman
    This is mind boggling. Metro Buffalo just getting missed
  17. Radtechwxman
    This band really flew south quick tonight. I know South Buffalo was always favored for bigger totals though. Curious when band will venture back north. Northern portions of Buffalo may be snow free a while now.
  18. Radtechwxman
    I understood what he was trying to say and still stand behind my explanation. I think the NHC knows what they're doing
  19. Radtechwxman
    We have failed Ian and this thread
  20. Radtechwxman
    Unfortunately once over land recon can't fly into Ian so they use satellite estimates and models that estimate weakening so is it perfect? No. Could Ian be weaker than this? Yes. But is it still a powerful and dangerous hurricane? Definitely. That nw eyewall is still pounding many cities with high end winds and extreme flooding rain.
  21. Radtechwxman
    You are rarely ever going to see those measurements on land for many reasons. Most weather instruments fail before being able to reach those speeds, there often isn't weather stations in the areas that get the highest winds, and friction of land slows wind so always will be highest over water. NHC wasn't wrong with their intensity, you just won't see many reports of those high end winds but the damage will reflect it. There wasn't a ton with Michael up in that cat 4-5 range but look what it did....
  22. Radtechwxman
    He about got taken out by a big tree branch. Lol
  23. Radtechwxman
    Definitely. Impacts are the same whether it was cat 4 or 5. Absolutely devastating
  24. Radtechwxman
    150mph 940mb now. Don't think we saw a cat 5 landfall but it was real close
  25. Radtechwxman
    Prolific lightning right now in west to sw eyewall. One of the craziest I seen
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