cyclone77

Yeah tonight's 00z run suite should have fully sampled the final wave. Sort of interesting to see the UK finally bump northwest after days of showing pretty much zero here, and meanwhile the Euro actually ticked a bit more southeast. The interaction/phasing of the two main waves seems pretty complex when you loop through the various model data. It's no surprise all of the guidance is struggling with trying to narrow down what the effective weather will end up being. All that being said, I'm still optimistic that we can bang out a 6"er here.

That's why I had to go check it out lol.

FWIW the 21z RAP shows a 997mb low near Champaign at 12z Tue, with snow ripping over north IL into east IA.

00z NAM actually decently better for here/QC than the 18z was. Things are looking up lol.

The differences between today's 3km NAM runs were definitely lol worthy. For example... The 12z The 18z And an exclusive sneak peek at tonight's new 00z..

Newly updated point has 7-13" here by Wed. Not too shabby.

Somewhere in the back channels the NGM still grinds out model data for them.

I'll take it. 4.4" would make the top 2 event this winter.

You can tell spring is almost hear. The deafening sounds of motorcyles tearing through the neighborhood are back. Yipee. Made it to 57 here so far, 60 at MLI. Very nice!

Hopefully the 12z suite overdid it a bit with the southeast trend, and things correct back nw with the 00z runs. Either way, I'm riding the 6" call till I go down in flames lol. NAM FTW!

Like I said last month, biggest dog will prob be late March from far southern IL to southern OH. One last middle finger from ma nature to the majority of this sub lol.

Is Jackstraw reeling in another medium dog??

I'm all in. Going 6"+ for here/QC.

If you look closely you can see a big shelf of ice/snow that has broken off the southeast shoreline of LM, and floated "out to sea" several miles.

Does seem pretty strange how Cedar Rapids seems to always fail at getting a footer considering they line up with Dubuque/Madison for cutters. Just must be terrible luck I guess.

Lock in the Euro.

Seems like the UK is always weak/southeast with every system for as long as I have been following models. In the end it usually caves to a stronger nw system, unless we have a season like this one. If it ends up being right it's probably for the wrong reasons.

Kuchera from WxBell even more clownish compared to the COD kuchera. Gives Burlington IA just under 2ft of snow. About 18" for the QC/north Chicago area.

Let's hope the hook doesn't bend, or nick in the line doesn't break it lol.

Said it somewhere else before, but to me Feb 2017 is as impressive, or maybe even more impressive than Morch was, at least for this particular area. Very nice out today with temps in the low 50s and full sun. Lots of people out walking/jogging. Little do they know a foot of snow could be looming in coming days.

You guys are waaaay overdue for a footer. Hopefully this one can get 'er done.

Yeah, I was rather uncomfortable being in the middle of the highest snow totals for so many runs. Would rather be on the edge one way or the other at this range lol. Would hate to root for a slightly weaker/further southeast system, but if that what it takes to get into the good snows vs dry slot, I'll take it. Based on the relative weirdness with the phasing of this system we will probably see little run-to-run changes right up until the day of the storm. So basically like every other system this winter ha.

I can go for another bout of 34 and rain. Would like a dash of sleet thrown in this time though please.

Sounds pretty exciting. Hopefully a ribbon of 1-3" can be deposited for a lucky few.

IL has a lot of birdfart, 2-scan naders that pad the amounts. NW IL is a dead zone for strong naders (luckily). This area is def overdue for a strong/violent tornado.