cyclone77

18z 3km NAM continues to show expansive cloud cover that severely limits surface heating for most of the risk area Tuesday. Will be interesting to see if the HRRR shows this as well when we get within 36hrs. If the NAM verifies this one is DOA.

3km NAM looks to be way under-doing surface temps compared to the Euro. It looks like it has extensive cloud cover that limits heating throughout the day, and resulting in a stout EML above the cooler surface temps. The Euro has been advertising a much more mixed, warmer surface regime for many days, and results in surface temps 10+ degrees warmer. It continues to insist on convection taking off later Tue afternoon over northern IL, in a fairly impressive thermodynamic environment. It will be interesting to see which model wins out.

Yeah there's definitely some conditional potential there. 00z NAM showing some capping around H8 that would limit potential. Would make sense with warm southwesterly flow feeding into the area above the BL. Not much in the way of height falls either to help. EC has been consistent in breaking out precip/convection around 00z late Tue, so that is encouraging. Previous runs of the NAM have less capping compared to the new 00z, so hopefully trends reverse with subsequent NAM cycles.

Freezing rain in April, 6 days after what very easily could have been a major tornado outbreak. Gotta love it.

Hopefully we can tag our first 80 Tue. Euro shows over 1500J/Kg of cape, so hopefully we can get some good convection later in the day as well.

Made it to 65 here. CF passed about 2:30 or so, and have since dropped back to 50.

Still working 5-6 days a week, with over 2000 employees where I work. There are personnel taking everyones temps upon arrival everyday, but fever may not show up until other symptoms arise, which would be too late. I pretty much plan on getting it at some point over the next month or two. If I don't that's great. If so, hopefully I'll kick it's ass and move on. Outside of work I just do my best to minimize exposure to others as much as possible.

Looks like mid 60s Thu & Fri here, and then 70s Mon & Tue. This time next week I suspect the leaves will be creeping out of their swollen buds.

April fools!

Yep I've been out getting all the equipment ready. Prob be cutting grass in about 8-14 days. Ready, set, mow, yo!

DVN just confirmed a brief EF-1 about 12 miles east-southeast of here, south of Prophetstown. Happened well after sunset so I didn't miss anything.

Getting frequent 40-45mph gusts. MLI hit 49mph earlier. The landscape has dramatically greened up after all the rain, and fixed nitrogen from the lightning. Trees have swelled buds. Won't be long before leaves start popping out.

Over 3.5" of rain since late last evening. There's standing water everywhere, even 12+hrs after the rains mostly shut off. Won't take much to get us up over the 4" mark if we get any kind of action later on. From 3.3" snow 6 days ago, to a flash flood event, and now a PDS tor watch.

If I was out I'd wanna be on that cell coming up towards Quincy. Winds nicely backed ahead of it, and moisture levels in that area are pretty nice.

3.18" now. The end is in sight though, as the back-building of this particular band has finally crapped the bed.

Oh yeah, well on our way. Now over 2.6", with almost an inch since midnight. Torrential rain falling right now, so we'll blow by 3" in the next 10-15mins. Lots of flash flooding going on from here down into the QC. EDIT: Just ran downstairs to check the basement, since this is the first very heavy rain event in the new house. So far so good.

1.5" of rain in the past 40 minutes. Still dumping, and now under a flash flood warning lol. Sure is nice to hear the constant rumble of thunder. Some things just never get old.

Yeah was just gonna post about that. Very nice light show atm. Very heavy rains moving in.

First thunder of the year a bit ago. Had a brief, but nice downpour roll through and quickly dropped 0.12" of rain. Tiny hail core just missed southeast with what was probably peas.

I gotta work lol.

Pretty amazing that just 5 days ago we were enjoying a 3" snow event, and now we're looking at a decent severe setup for tomorrow. Gotta love March.

Not to get off topic but the parent sup that spawned the infamous Fairdale tor had nice rotation not too long after it initiated, and was cranking quite nicely aloft before it dropped the tor out near Ashton. The main sup that we chased that day started way out by Ottumwa, and followed it up to near Clinton when it finally produced.

Oh no, does that mean the model performance hasn't hit rock bottom yet? lol

Think Broyles half-assed it per usual. Based on model data last eve the threat should have been much further north in coverage. Later model data could change that, but based off the data he should have been looking at the threat area was poorly outlined.

It's in there