nwohweather

I think it's time to go High Risk today. The fact that a large tornado just occurred within a QLCS during the morning before diurnal heating and the deepening of the low has occurred is really something. Growing up in the Great Lakes region so many classic outbreaks and strong tornadoes I have chased featured solid instability, great dews around 70° and SRH's of 250-350. Today's numbers, especially in SRH are blowing this out of the water. To see such stark numbers suggest any strong updraft may rotate, and violently at that at times.

Bingo. This setup for Easter is incredible, one of the best I’ve ever seen. But April 27th was Michael Jordan, hands down the greatest setup of all-time. And it led to some of the most memorable tornadoes ever as well. However here is an actual quote from the SPC Outlook on that morning... “THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO RAPIDLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE NOSE OF A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL CREATE LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM ERN MS AND NCNTRL AL NWD INTO SRN TN. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS” It’s very similar in setting the stage, just with a tad less instability. Storm motions will be insane on Sunday, 65-75 mph

Think I’m going to chase on Easter down here. Thinking of heading out to Montgomery AL and then letting the storms come to me. I won’t lie, has a chance to be an all-time outbreak down here on Sunday. Don’t like to go overboard with predictions, but good God a mid-level jet of 90 kts with 2000-3500 j/kg of CAPE, SRH from 4-500, LI’s at the surface above -10 for a large stretch, and long curved hodographs. Would not be shocked to see many long track tornadoes across southern AL/MS/GA

LI’s of -9 and SRH at the lowest levels of 450. Good heavens. Also LCL’s are really low there, you could get some groundscraping wedges out there

Jesus Toledo has more cases than Cincinnati? IMO our government needs to start planning for how we re-open post social distancing. As we start to decline off this peak, they need to have plans in place to take temperatures before entering any buildings. Also they need to require masks for anyone inside an interior building. Our economy simply cannot survive if this continues past May 1. Safety is paramount, but in 3 weeks we need to be ready to go out to eat and shop at Target again. If that doesn't happen, the cure will indeed wind up being worse than the sickness overall.

With our family postponing Easter in Savannah and no church services I think I'm going to head out from Charleston to chase this one. Mid-level jet will be roaring around 100 kts, solid destabilization, and large curved hodographs all look like a great setup. Also it is important to note that the better setup is on the Euro which bodes well if you're looking for tornadoes.

Looks like the SPC is banking on a derecho tomorrow. I could see the storms kicking up off the mountains tomorrow bringing some basic severe weather with that vort hanging around, and then a derecho sweeping through tomorrow night in the Virginias

The SPC is banking hard on a derecho tomorrow I see

Woo 80s thru Thursday here in Chuck town. Should be a perfect week to swim. I feel like a kid again on Summer vacation

My two cents here, but they need to really ramp up mask production and require it for going out in public. Then May 1st we re-open everything with better PPE for ALL Americans. The social distancing measures seem like they have done well, but we cannot keep our economy shut down past this month or the cure is going to be worse than the virus. I don't think people realize we're going to be in a legitimate economic depression when this is over, but how long is lasts is going to be the difference.

I think tornado season will roar this year, hurricane season is a different story. At the end of the day it's all about how troughy Summer is

I see this thing going down drastically in May. Social distancing seems to be making a positive impact and most are taking this seriously. I think banning people from parks and stuff is too extreme though, if anything just arrest people for not staying 6 feet apart

I don't see us here in Charleston getting too much in the way of severe weather unless that warm front hurries itself on through. Lots of good ingredients hanging out just offshore that would make this a true severe event. I notice the air is rather cold behind this front, only 50 degrees currently in Huntsville. That's some Ohio type of temperature for 3 PM a day from April

Tons of QLCS tornadoes in this line. I'll admit I am shocked how strong these helicity numbers are, but think the lack of instability north of Columbus, GA may be too much of hinderance for this to be very widespread. It is early in the afternoon though

Instability, shear and helicity seem to be just south of Albany, GA at the present time and hugging the bulk of the line racing through the south. If forecasts are to be true, may see quite a bit of warm sector action today in southern GA. IMO with the high likelihood of quite a few wind reports with that line, in addition to decent tornado chances ahead of it and embedded within, the SPC should go ENH ASAP

Instability, shear and helicity seem to be just south of Albany, GA at the present time and hugging the bulk of the line racing through the south. If forecasts are to be true, may see quite a bit of warm sector action today in southern GA. IMO with the high likelihood of quite a few wind reports with that line, in addition to decent tornado chances ahead of it and embedded within, the SPC should go ENH ASAP

Would not be shocked to see some rotation with anything popping up along that front

A noticeably cooler period of weather upcoming for Charleston. I cannot believe how cool the upcoming week will be after constantly breaking 80 the last few weeks consistently. 62 for a high on Wednesday and then 70s for the foreseeable future

Yeah at some places. Mostly though things are just getting wiped down constantly and our beaches are closed to non-residents. Other than that no one is really following these guidelines

If anything this is proof that America's healthcare system is superior to Italy's. We have more cases and far fewer deaths

This weather cannot make up its mind. Had all the windows open last night, put a little bit of a chill in the house when I woke up. Then tomorrow thru Sunday we'll have the AC on full blast

The big problem with this in America is our first test did not work. That was the greatest failure by our country, we simply do not prepare in case the testing does not work. That's like showing up to the golf course without tees, lol it's unreasonable to predict that. I think this thing will be on the down turn by the end of April, everyone seems to be taking it seriously enough that it should flatten the curve

Right. This isn't the Plains where you get extremely unstable atmospheres. 10 C°/KM is completely unstable correct?

I imagine there will be a pretty nice outflow boundary laid down as well. Helicity levels are pretty darn high for today with a decent environment

I think the warm air slows it down a bit, simply because UV light burns it off of outside surfaces and people are more inclined to naturally be distant from each other due to the nicer weather. Regardless right now I think we have a better chance of getting sick from these wild temperature swings, to go from 89 on Saturday, 61 yesterday and 59 right now is wild. Then Friday & Saturday we're right back at it making a run at 90.