nwohweather

It showed much deeper convection on the models than what we are seeing

This really isn’t that shocking. Huge severe outbreak in the South robbed this thing of a lot of its moisture. I posted a few days ago about how it may rob the cold side of the storm and sure enough that’s what’s happening

Storm mode was terrible. Throw in VBV and essentially too much forcing and you have a mess of storms and a huge line. That line of storms is massive right now, but hard to get anything other than spin ups along it.

Yeah this has bust all over it. I may come back to eat my words but messy storm mode is ruining the whole thing as well as clockwise turning with height. If anything I think tomorrow has a better chance with more organization to produce, but this isn’t a very clean outbreak

You'll know more than I about this but doesn't heavy rain give off quite a bit of latent heat which would then help it turn into a higher percentage of sleet falling as opposed to strictly freezing rain?

Disagree entirely with so much gulf moisture being pumped into this thing. Unless you believe the LLJ is being overdone, I see no reason to believe that a warm bias would be occurring. I believe the bias you are mentioning has been a warm season bias, not a winter bias. And even then that is because soil moisture affects results

Really like the Euro and the dry slot it is showing. Also have to take into consideration that a major severe outbreak down south could disrupt moisture transport and lead to slightly lesser totals, especially on the cold side of this low

Eh it's kinda weird though. Especially with Colorado Low/Panhandle Hook

Haha we've hit a stalemate weather wise. Spring & Summer and its severe weather/heat waves/flooding keep it more lively

I had a teacher call it that in college. Basically he called the Cutter a Runner and a Miller B a cutter since it cuts across the GL. So many of these definitions are NE based

Ahh see I was always taught that was a Great Lakes Runner, similar to the App Runner just farther west. Then you have your Panhandle Hooks, Miller B and Alberta Clipper

That isn't a cutter

Honestly thank God we have not had too much snow to this point, if you had a solid snowpack with this storm approaching the flooding would be near record levels, especially in Indiana and Ohio

Agreed, especially since these tend to come in a little deeper than just about any other low pressure type that affects the region. The icing potential could be staggering however, especially for Indy, Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland and the GTA. Someone is going to get a ton in the freezing rain/sleet department if this pans out

Ahh looks like a classic Panhandle Hook on the horizon. I'd be pretty happy if I were in Chicago or Milwaukee, other points east are going to be in a much stickier ball game. Also the PWAT's on this look absolutely insane, the moisture rush out of the gulf could lead to an epic ice storm in the battleground. Definitely has the look of a big dog storm

It's not a cutter folks, a cutter literally slashes in a E-W swath across the area. Your SW-NE swaths are typically panhandle hooks, if it runs up the spine of the Apps it is an App Runner

This wind is wild. Maybe only 1-2” but it is blowing at 20-30 easy

Eh the amount of things that went right for April 27th to occur was insane. The instability and shear overlapped was off the charts, and led to 34 separate long track tornadoes rated EF3 or higher and killed 316 people. Also you can add in the whole outbreak as all 4 days had at least 40 tornadoes. March was an awesome anomaly, but that day was shocking because of its impact

Hmm hard for me to put the March torch above the extreme disasters. April 27th may never happen again honestly

Coming from a Toledoan here... June 5-6 2010 Tornadoes (absolutely smoked NW Ohio) March 2012 Torch (I believe April wound up being a colder month) November 2013 Tornadoes (heck of an outbreak across the GL) Winter of 2013-14. Insane season! 40” in January with 10” falling on New Years Day and then 13” blizzard hitting us 4 days later. 86” in the Lower GL is something that will probably never happen again The rainy summer of 2015 April 2016 Snowstorm. 10” in early April! Was incredibly hard and experienced Thundersnow August 2016 Tornadoes. Another wild event, followed the EF3 from out by Napoleon into Maumee Holidays 2016-2017 Arctic Cold. Insane to remember, didn’t hit 20° for two consecutive weeks. Most days were around zero Memorial Day 2019 Tornadoes. Heck of a night outbreak for SW and Central Ohio Nationally I’m going... #5... Joplin Tornado #4... Hurricane Harvey & Flooding #3... Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011 #2... Hurricane Michael obliterates panhandle #1... April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

Hell of a roll cloud today

Beautiful day today! No complaints here about this warmth, very pleasant to be outside in just a hoodie

Looks like between 1-7 AM will be when portions of NW Ohio will be over ran with snow, this may be best for the band to expand a bit as the supercells occurring with the tornado outbreak to the south will not play as big of a role in robbing the moisture transport as we move towards the overnight. To me seems pretty obvious at the moment that the narrow band of snow is being forced into that because of the moisture theft happening with the supercell development in the South

Extremely interesting to see what happens here tonight in NW Ohio. Findlay-Tiffin showing 3-6" with this round, while 30-40 miles to the north may see a total shutout. Absolutely razor thin margins that may effect the Toledo suburbs. Also wanted to add will be moving the Chicago burbs here soon so will be joining the Illinois crew for the second half of winter

Hmm not seeing any lightning strikes on RadarScope. Hell of a snow band there however!