USCAPEWEATHERAF

Wow I hope it slides just a tad southeast in the end.

00z CMC looked great, 12" over the Cape

I have the same issue with cameras, I tend to blink when the flash goes off.

I agree Will, although the GFS is not as strong with the surface low as the EURO is, I think there is time still for that to change.

I thought you didn't like looking at those snow maps?

GFS increased QPF what were you looking at?

No you don't, remember Blizzard of 2015?

Really?? Wow. I am sorry it came out like that, but you would understand if your winter was close to as bad as mine.

Good, I wasn't sure I was clear enough.

Even for a fast-moving storm center, the models are now producing over 2" of QPF.

AS long as the models trend towards a stronger system overall, the SE ticks can start. I like a 988mb low about 25 miles southeast of the benchmark.

Marine layer shouldn't be an issue.

I don't want rain.

Tremendous banding and lift present with this storm.

please I do not want rain. No rain, we can have rain on Monday, not the Saturday system.

Yeah so is the Reggie, which takes credit away from the trend of the 00z NAM. Even the 21z SREFs went more QPF.

Then how is he saying its a massive hit?

I am not trusting the mesoscale models lately given their track record, I will cave towards them for now when the rest of the global models come in at 00z and they agree with them.

I'm not in the bullseye, I promise

12z runs have come in and I have gone ahead and issued my first snowfall map. 12" could be the maximum for SE Plymouth to the Canal region as NE winds enhance the snowfall with mixing issues across the Islands.

My first snowfall map

EURO is over 8" of snow for the Cape and over 7" for ACK.

That liooks a lot better for my area. 12z GFS is all snow for CHH.

So far today, during the early runs of the 12z NAM, 3km NAM, SREFs and RGEM models, there is a growing consensus on a potential nor'easter that could impact the region with heavy snow, coastal mix, and high winds. Perhaps if the conditions can warrant, blizzard conditions on Saturday, March 2nd. We are about 54 hours away from the onset of precipitation. There are many problems to still figure out. The strength of the low could be quite intense and close to the benchmark. With the global models ready to come out next, we will know by 2pm today if there is a growing consensus for an impactful storm, or one that is just too far out to the east to give us little if any precipitation. Right now confidence is growing in potential impacts, snow could fall 4-8" from WOR to HARTFORD, CT, and 8-12" across eastern MA and parts of Rhode Island. I will update every one on my blog after 2pm, with a preliminary snowfall map.

00z and 6z models have brought an increasing amount of confidence that a significant snowstorm will impact the region sometime Saturday through Saturday night. This looks like an all snow event once again, however, the dynamics are much better with a strengthening storm center passing just southeast of the benchmark. Snow favors Cape and Islands and most of SE MA from the BOS to PVD corridor of I95 southeastward. Cape Cod and the Islands have the best shot at a foot or more of snow.