LongBeachSurfFreak

29 minutes ago, drstuess said:

Yeah, Bill had 80 mile hurricane wind radius, Franklin is currently only 20-30 miles? Wind field will expand, but will be interesting to see.

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Exactly, fetch is very important. Though with the track being north for a two day period there will be captured fetch in the eastern quadrant that will affect south facing beaches in the north east. 

Franklin had that text book look right now. Despite its smallish size, it will produce the largest, most dangerous August swell for the east coast since Bill 08. Beach erosion, wash overs and deadly rip currents likely up and down the east coast. 

52 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Franklin looking good this morning.   I wonder if Idalia will look like this near/at landfall.

Fantastic wave generating storm. The amazing thing is, just as the Franklin swell fades away we are going to get another burst of swell from Idalia. 

2 hours ago, ROOSTA said:

I have a cavalier attitude toward this system, even CAT5 IAN for which I prepared for.
My area: Power was out 6days, highest wind speed ~60-70mph. a fringe job and more an inconvenient nuisance. Everything returned to "normal" in day or two.
Still time to stock-up if the track moves E and intensity ramps-up. Most of the hurricane models do just that (950-970MB). I've been in and out of the cone of uncertainty. 
The last few SAT images are beginning to show good outflow in the RFQ. Appears Idalia will look better than Franklin (larger) might even take on an annular appearance.   

Yeah Franklin is a small storm. That will limit swell production despite a great track for NE waves. It will still be a solid swell but peaking in the 8-10’ range rather then 12-18 in the greats like Bill august 08.

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

There's not much point of stomping them anymore-it's like trying to put out a forest fire with a paper cup of water

Exactly. I think I stomped over 1000 today alone on the uws. They are here we are stuck with them. Bring on the waves from Franklin. 

5 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Explosive convective development ongoing.  This is so far ahead of schedule it’s honestly frightening.

Still sheared to the south, agreed, though once out of the shear it’s bombs away. Just need to get a solid core to form

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

I moved up to the CT shoreline just east of Tweed airport. So KHVN is my new nearest official station. It’s a cool little airport tucked into a nice community. So I may be as close to KHVN is Rjay us to ISP. I get some nice sea breezes here right off the sound. I will keep posting in NYC Metro since the crew feels like extended family to me. 

Congrats on the move. Your definitely still part of this forum and will always be appreciated!

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Waterspout off the jersey shore before

Makes allot of sense, lots of effective shear. 
meanwhile poring sheet drizzle on the uws put an end to my day working outside. 

Pretty cool if you look at the current radar, lower level returns from the south passing through upper level returns from the north west

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup.  We are due though. It only takes one.  But agreed…boring for sure. But that’s what it usually is in late august. 

Roll the dice enough times.

I think some of the pre 1850 storms my have been misclassified as hurricanes. Things like derechos and hybrid/nor’easters. Not all but some.

The real reoccurrence rate of a landfalling hurricane in the north east may be a little bit lower than what’s currently suggested. 
 

Still, there were some that were obviously majors like the great colonial, 1815 and of course 38. That’s the one I think we are really do for. Not as much weakening inducing cooler water protecting Long Island and New England anymore.  So it’s just a matter of when.

meanwhile, Franklin is looking excellent for a medium to large swell for early next week. That period where it’s moving north will produce some captured fetch. 

46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Incredible! Watching an eyeball form live on radar. Probably a decent but stronger than the estimated 50mph 998 official landfall. Probably more like 65mph 992. 

5 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Look perfect to me.  No damage for anyone and some good swells for surfing, body boarding, etc...

That’s just the way we like them, close enough to limit swell decay but not so close that we get into the circulation and end up with winds too strong. I’ll never forget Gustav 9/11/02. 10-12’ swells on Long Island in the morning with light winds turned to 50-60mph  offshore winds by mid morning and poof the swell was gone. Extreme example but shows what happens when you get too close. 

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Multiple long track waves across a moistened central Atlantic with a significant decrease in shear + lack of TUTTS after Franklin is sucked north. And, a very strong mid Atlantic ridge building through end of run meaning less escape routes for anything to make it north. Never mind the Andrew-like storm that hits Florida and the Gulf as a major with another strong hurricane being pushed west beneath that ridge and another likely storm coming off the coast of Africa at the end of the run. Pretty much squashed all of the inhibiting factors of the season thus far and shows some strong storms with westward tracks as it does so 

If the shear does relax and the Atmosphere looses that SAL, then yeah, it’s game time. Right in time for peak climo, so with OHC at record highs basin wide…. Watch out 

Pretty interesting that Gert is still named because it has a couple thunderstorms hanging on well east of a mess of a low level swirl. Yet Emily has a textbook low level swirl and lost its name. For all intents and purposes Emily is a better defined low and would have been a major hurricane if it weren’t for strong shear. 

57 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Did we have 2 systems upgraded to named storms in a single day last year?  Of course not.  I think we'll have 3 named storms in 3 days, but the numbers will be 3/1/0 for August, Maybe 4/1/0.  I think a below normal numbers and ACE season, but nothing like the LDub season cancel.  Gulf has poor steering and shear/dry air, but I'd bet money on a major hurricane landfalling Florida in October.  The OHC will still be immense in 2 months, and normal (climatological) mean steering favors Gulf to Florida.  Probably not a storm with enough lifespan to make ACE normal, but a short lived Cat 3 or 4 is a Cat 3 or 4.  Looking for a model that supports thay, none so far.

I wouldn’t write off Franklin for a major. Plenty of warm water in its later life, and that area loves to produce majors historically 

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be their version of a Harvey or Florence with a year of rainfall for those areas in just a few days.

 

 

Exactly, I feel like there is too much focus on winds and the structure of the storm. None of that matters when you’re pushing precipitable water values near 3” over serious mountains. There really aren’t any historical precedents for this. Except maybe some typhoons in places like the Philippines. There are going to be incredible videos of arroyos turning into raging torrents

.00” at the wantagh meso. Impressive how tight the gradient was right along the south shore.

meanwhile it took me an extra hour to get to work  on the uws, driving through a flooded out cross island 

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sounds like New England  

Similar. Except the area of cold water (buffer) is much larger and significantly colder. 
Speaking of which we are losing our buffer and will eventually (by the end of the century likely) be prime major hurricane coastline. Without the need for fast speed out of the Gulf Stream to limit weakening. 

17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Good, I was thinking earlier....wish we could get a full phase and rip a cane into S CA.  Tough to even get remnant rains above Tijuana 

You would need a cat 5 at the latitude of Cabo, that gets sling shot north north east at, at least 40knots to get anything resembling a real cane. It’s possible but extremely unlikely. Low end trop storm is generally about the strongest possible given the hundreds of miles of cool water along the Baja, which is often even colder than in socal itself. 

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

TFW the first TS landfall in the US this season could be San Diego.

Not happening. Later in the season maybe. Needs to rocketing NE to survive the water tr is around 20c..

That complex off the south Jersey coast eould

be an epic flooder if it were over land. 

23 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I see them all the time. 

WX/PT

Yeah they aren’t the plague they were originally billed to be. We actually had more last summer on the uws than this summer. 
Finally a droughtless summer on the island I’m more interested in that.

4 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

From OKX (Twitter (X) feed): 

Did you get woken up from the storms last night/early this am? Below is a summary of lightning data courtesy of @EarthNetworks  (in cloud & cloud to ground) every hour beginning 8 pm Sat & ending 9 am Sunday. About 25,000 strikes occurred during that time, 14,000 from 2 am to 9 am.

Best light show in a decade. It’s so rare to get that continuous lighting on the island. Memorable 

It’s no joke like watching a fire work show finally right now. Nom stop with numerous very intense nearby cloud to ground strikes. Watching from my outdoor covered porch spellbound.

guess those supercells over Ohio held together 

Absolutely epic storm in lynbrook. Best in many many years. Currently continuous lighting. 50ish mph gusts to to start. Soooooo happy I woke up