LongBeachSurfFreak

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like about 2500 ft over NYC/LI, 1500 ft over CT from the beam height. 

Nice, thanks for posting that. I was estimating based on surface temps and conversion 1 degree per 200 feet. 

36 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The radar is reminding me of a classic noreaster

The radar looks like it should be snowing 2” an hour right now. It has that exact texture. Because at beam hight it’s all snow. Snow levels probably currently between 1500-2000’ feet based on surface temps. That terrace I was talking about at 1500’ will be covered in several inches in the morning.

Pouring right now in SW Nassua, I guess this system does have some decent dynamics. Let’s see how much we cool the column overnight. 

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looking for very late season comparisons what do you think of 4/19-20/1983 ?

No clue. I was 1. Would have to see the historical data especially low placement and strength. 

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Areas that get heavy rates  have a chance...Crazy for 4/12

Yeah this late in the season it’s all about rates. Someone near the coast could get a coating. Most likely place would be highest elevations of north shore of the island somewhere like north hills at 300’.  But it could be anywhere if it really dumps. It could just as easily be no one.

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

and from what I've read in high winds you can feel the sway.....no thanks.

I mean they have tuned mass dampeners, which is a big weight at the top of the building that counters the sway. But yeah, if the winds cranking it can only do so much. None of those super talls were there yet for sandy. Other then the one under construction which is significantly shorter at 1,000’ and look what happened there. I would have to imagine in a sandy redux you would not want to be near the top of those buildings.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes spring is a completely useless season. I loved the 80s and 90s because we usually went straight from winter to summer.

Real spring weather is amazing. Having lived in Maryland for 4 years for college I miss those endless April days of sunny and 70s with low dews. Such a rarity on the south shore of Long Island. By the time we start seeing consistent 70s in Late May/June it’s already accompanied with and sea breeze and higher dews. 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if it's higher than that horrendous rectangular eyesore they built in Manhattan that looks like a giant middle finger? What is that monstrosity called-- something Park Avenue I think?

 

Yes it’s higher. 1550’ for the Nordstrom tower vs 1396’ for 432 Park Ave. Both fully residential and have higher roof heights then 1 World Trade Center. While NYC no longer has the tallest buildings in the world it still has the highest residential buildings.

I think part of the reason they are having trouble selling that pent house is, it’s so high it’s often in the clouds. 

7 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Not too many years ago. On Memorial Day weekend. From an ULL it was 33 degrees and raining. No snow or ice, but 33°. End of May.

That was a really powerful nor’easter for so late in the season. Had some sleet mix in at times on the north shore of Nassua. Air show at jones beach completely canceled. Pretty much a worst case scenario for MDW.

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lol how much to own it or rent it??

 Cool 150,000,000$ that’s the asking price. It’s the highest residence in the world. It’s been sitting on the market for a while though last I heard.

2 hours ago, rclab said:

Liberty you stirred a memory in my aged cranium. I remember, possibly  70’s/80’s, a TV weather show ran a live clip showing large flake snow falling near the top of the Empire State Building. (Apparently it was taken by a visitor as I don’t believe there was a dedicated weather camera in place at that time.) Out side on ground level it was a cold rain. I remember commenting to my family that I don’t envy the parent that has to explain why it’s snowing up there but not down here, I never remember seeing such a demonstration again. Stay well Liberty. As always …

There is a pent house on top of the Nordstrom tower that has a big patio at like 1500’. That patio is the ultimate weather weenies dream. It’s so high you look over the Empire State Building.

Probably get a few inches at 1500’ in this setup. 

38 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

hopefully we see some of these in the Atlantic this year   obviously that model hit the bottle though

Southern hemisphere screamer! That’s a pretty epic model run, I think 865 is the lowest pressure I have ever seen modeled. 

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder what some of our big noreasters like December 1992 mentioned above did to the sand there?

 

92 moved more sand then any event in my lifetime. Sandy, didn’t move sand laterally so much as pushed it inland. Pic from my first apartment at Monroe Beach after sandy.

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wouldn't the westerly flow actually result in a larger beach since the ocean is being pushed offshore?

 

This isn’t easy for me to describe in words.

So bassically the prevailing flow of sand on the south shore, called the lateral drift goes from east to west. As the bluffs erode in Montauk they renurish the beaches to the west with new sand. You can actually see the sand particle size decrease as you head west. With Long Beach and Rockaway having much finer sand then the Hamptons. Under natural conditions the beaches erode and are replenished seasonally. Since humans added things like jettys to keep inlets open and groins to trap sand we have disrupted the flow of sand.

Thats why there is a need for intervention. If you look at a place like west end 2 and jones beach, the large jetty protecting jones inlet acts as a block to sand movement. That area has been growing year after year. Further east at gilgo there is net erosion. So that sand that was added at gilgo ends up heading west and gets stopped by the jetty. All of this happens regardless of the local winds, seasonally. I’m sure the strong westerly winds did slow if not stop the lateral drift for a time. But any long period of easterly flow ramps it back up. 

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

4 days in a row with an easterly component to the winds will attempt to push back against the record westerly flow since December.

 

 

Could be some min/mid coastal flooding and beach erosion due to the fetch and duration. 
The ACOE did a major dredging of fire island inlet and dumped the sand at Gilgo where a new inlet is constantly trying to form. (There was one before it was filed for ocean parkway) Despite the fact that we have had such fast westerly flow the beach at jones beach is already about 50 yards bigger then last summer. Should grow even more this weekend. 
 

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s been a while since we had a 4 day nor’easter like the Euro has from Thursday into Sunday.

 

Nice to see that storm track finally!! Not an especially deep so we would need strong high pressure interaction for a nor’easter. 

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yankees home opener April 1996 was a classic and one of my favorites of all time! We had 4 inches of snow here.

Snow or not, it’s definitely going to feel alllllllllot colder this evening with peaking CAA. It’s going to be one of the nights were the temp drops rapidly then slows dramatically 

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Awful day for my son’s first baseball game. First pitch at 5:30. Will be absolutely brutal 

They would be completely insane to try and play baseball with windchills in the teens. Imagine getting jammed up!

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did you notice this record-- higher than the hurricane of 1938!!

and in 2010 they set  a new heat record on this date (we all did lol).

 

 

1988 - High winds in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region gusted to 172 mph atop Grandfather Mountain NC. Twenty-nine cities in the southwest and north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Yankton SD with a reading of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2010 - A temperature of 80 degrees is measured on Grandfather Mountain, NC, the warmest ever measured in April and three degrees short of the all-time record high for any month.

While that sounds like a really impressive gust, the obs just a few feet under 6,000. Mt. Washington offen gusts that high. And has gusted to 231mph. 

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow in 1857 we had snow in every state on this date?? thats pretty amazing!!

I do not think that’s possible.

scratch that… there were way less states in 1857

Just now, Brian5671 said:

do we hang onto those fast westeries all summer though?

I mean, seasonally the jet heads north. Anytime we have a trough it would have access to that stronger jet though. Maybe I’m just looking for the silver lining in a currently shit weather pattern. I do think it’s a lock that this warm season is significantly wetter then last however. 

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe it’s your 8th least favorite after 33, 34, 35…. and drizzle? 

Yeah. Something like that. One thing to look forward to is severe season. Which based on the prevailing pattern should be solid this year. The mid west flooding should add allot of moisture to the mix, and add the strong westerly’s we have been experiencing and it should be game on.

40 and drizzle is a close second to my least favorite weather, which is 33 and drizzle. Looking forward to warm sunny days ahead. 

16 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Blue Hill had a sustained wind of 121mph and a gust of 186mph during the 1938 hurricane.

Yeah your right. That was off the top of my head, should have looked it up to confirm.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It could be true especially since it was no longer purely tropical.  Worse than Sandy in terms of winds wow (we had 90-95 mph winds here from Sandy.)

Yeah definitely worse then Sandy wind wise for the island. Likely the strongest winds in a few hundred years. Peak wind gusts in the Hamptons were 140mph and close to 100mph in Nassau (right along the water) Blue Hill in Ma, over 100 miles north east of the landfall in the Hamptons gusted to 160mph at 600 feet. (Not exactly that high)