LongBeachSurfFreak

0.00” on the island .01” at cpk. Coastal waters are warm again so I’m surprised things fell apart that prolifically. 

Let’s say lee drops to sub 900. Completely unprecedented in that part of the atlantic. It could hypothetically affect larger scale systems by the shear nature of its strength. 

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A massive winter storm for SNE…?  C’mon Brett you’re better than this, we see one almost every year in SNE. Sometimes a couple.  And it’s exponentially easier to get a Blizzard to hit us, than a Major Hurricane. Haven’t had a true major H hit SNE in 85 yrs.  We’ve had dozens of big winter storms in that same time period. 

Carol, 54 was a major. But the point remains the same. I really like an Eduardo 96 type track for this one. Close but no cigar. 

4 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Central Park is 93 at 2:00

The tree canopy nonsense continues to be unfounded hysteria.

It’s been dry right along the coast for the last week. That’s enough to help the park at least be within the ball park….

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Surf will be wild anyway even if this ends up 700 miles offshore. 

This will be a major beach erosion beast. Huge circulation with a very large fetch as its passing by. Most likely the largest swell for the north east since bill 08. I’m thinking ahead of some protected breaks inside inlets that break once a decade. Because the paddle may be damn near impossible. 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Expectations through the roof and out of whack. That little s/w is the perfect illustration of why this is still a low probability deal despite the general trend. The smallest thing can force this east, especially given how soon it’s expected to turn N. If this got buried in the central/NW Bahamas there’d be more wiggle room.

This pretty much sums it up.  And why majors are so rare in the north east. Most of our storms are coming up from the Carolina’s having weakened due to land interaction. That’s why 38 was so special, it bypassed the normal disruption and came in directly from the ocean. 

I’ll go with 915 165mph while passing PR longitude. 

26 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Convection going up big time. Will eventually be what drives the formation of the eyewall barring any unforseen hickups

I think the large outer bands are a sign that this will be an above average size storm too. Typhoon tip in the west pac is a great example of an enormous circulation with a powerful small inner core.

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

How did the beaches make out with Franklin?  I had seen pictures/video of water into Jones Beach theater during a concert.

Major wash overs and flooding. Spent the day yesterday digging out burried snow fence. Based on what happened with bill in 08, it doesn’t take a direct hit to do damage. That storm stripped the beach and flooded the lots behind the boardwalk under sunny skies. It was bigger (larger fetch are and closer) then Franklin. All of which seemed a certainty with lee regardless of a hit.

One thing is certain with lee this far out. This is a beach rearrange situation. Major major, beach erosion event is set in stone 

The big take away from this storm, regardless of if it ever makes landfall on the east coast, is it’s huge eventual size will cause allot of water to move towards the coast in the form of extremely long period swells. This is going to be a major beach erosion event.

Also, lee looks to Miss the bulk of the cold wake left by Franklin. 
a very memorable coastal event is on the way

Gert is currently being absorbed into Idalia in a perfect example of the Fujiwara effect. Cool to watch on satellite 

Hopefully this avoids the cold wake left by Franklin. I would love to see a long track major just miss. Major swell producing event as I’ll be on vacation from my real job and life guarding full time at Jones beach Ny. Timing couldn’t be better. 

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’d be hilarious if this struggled after my super bullish post  

In all seriousness though, I find it very hard to believe that easterly shear would overcome all the other favorable factors including peak climo to disrupt this invest to the point it’s weak across the entire basin, especially given how it looks currently on visible/IR. The overall environment looks excellent to me despite the early shear. 

Intensity also probably plays a role in track. 

I’m right on board with you. I think this has the potential to be a huge ACE maker, and another prolific swell producer for the east coast. 

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot of it probably is from water. Either freshwater or salt water. It's pretty easy to rack up large losses there days with the price of real estate.

I agree. Surge flooding in places like the Tampa area. Not news worthy because who cares if someone got 6” of water in their house but, for that owner that could mean 10,000%+ of ripping out carpets/floors. We have seen it so many times on the south shore of Long Island. (Not mentioning the S word) 

3 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

How many times has it reached 100 in NYC in September?..Has there ever been a heat wavein September with 7 days in a row with temps above 90?...I doubt that has ever happened

I don’t think 100, but there was an extended heat wave in the late 1800s that killed lots of people. I’m sure someone could add the specifics 

Full wash overs at Jones beach. Surf isn’t incredibly large (6-8’) but the long periods and southerly direction are causing the water to come completely over the berm and flood the entire beach with several feet of water all the way to the boardwalk. This evenings high tide should come the highest. 

Jones beach is completely flooded as expected. This evenings high tide should really cause some issues as the swell is peaking. 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Continuing the pass into the SE eyewall, recon found FL winds between 84-91kts. That’s legit. 

Pretty hard to not find at least some decent winds with a 970 pressure. Like others have said it takes near perfect conditions to creat a 5. The classic is Katrina going from a cat one to a 5 while passing right over this same area. 

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Could not pick a better place to landfall in Florida is terms of coastal population and coastal infrastructure.  Mostly Wildlife Management areas and marsh.   Will keep surge damage / loss to a relative minimum.  Inland wind damage is another story.  Lots of tree damage and power outages on tap.

I was just checking the area likely to get the largest surge on google maps. This has to be the least developed coastal area on the entire east/gulf coast. For once we get to watch a storm explode and not feel that back of the mind guilt about loss of life. 
Even inland it’s going to pass between Tallahassee and Gainesville. It wouldn’t surprise me if monetary losses are larger in the Carolina’s then Florida with this one.

35 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

I believe the PHL SEPT record for 90 degree days is 8, very good chance we're halfway there by next Thursday. Even the GEM is toasty next week so looks like there's no ducking this shot. At least this is Sept & not the middle of July.

Very true, this setup in July would have meant a long lasting heat wave with shots at 100.

30 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Terrible...they talked up rain all day on Tuesday for the past few days and poof last night changed the whole forecast

Yeah I was really surprised to see the amounts removed from the forecast today. Meaning, we will be lucky to get a few showers. 

1 minute ago, Boston Bulldog said:

923.3mb per recon

 

Based on its relatively small size that should solidly put it at 160, though based on NHC forecasting 155, I bet they go with 155mph. 

31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Franklin is a gorgeous storm. 

Looks like a low end cat 5 to me. Hopefully recon gets there in time before a EWR happens. That’s about text book right there, nice stadium effect. 

Surf at area beaches will be pretty large Wednesday and Thursday from Franklin. If you want to witness the power of the ocean and some washovers and beach erosion it’s worth heading to the beach those days! Franklin now forecast to 155mph while sitting due south of us. One of the strongest storms ever to pass between Bermuda and NC.