LongBeachSurfFreak

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Winter in NYC is 1/1-1/15. 

Best post I have seen in years, literally just started laughing. For midtown Manhattan, right on the money.

51 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC  

 

April 2, 2018:  5.5 inches of snow

The crazy part of that event, the snow accumulated more efficiently then during some of those big storms in March. (In the city) Shows that it can still happen this time of year with very cold 850s and rates.

Could be a big severe day in the mid west today.

52 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Would wind speeds naturally increase as a result of climate change 

Super weighted question. It’s a yes and no that’s very location specific. Locally I would expect average wind speeds to decrease as there will be less arctic air to create cold air advection. CAA often drives our longest periods of sustained winds. Even more locally for the coast, summer sea breezes will decrease as the ocean continues to warm. 
On the high end I would suspect our highest wind gusts to increase, with stronger thunderstorms and hurricanes. 

Had enough sun finally to warm things up a bit to near 70. Onshore flow is pretty strong now and temps dropping. That will prevent  severe storms from making it to the island, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some thunderstorms. 

Stuck in the junk. Sun is trying to break through, though on in Lynbrook. 

5 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yesterday was very impressive. Seeing people ski in snow in VT to us being in the 70s/80s. Simply amazing. I would have loved to fly from LGA to BOS and back to see that crazy gradient 

F Boston, 35 and misery mist… No thanks, I’d fly to Burlington for 30 and snow anytime….

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nope

 

Like clockwork almost every year. I have a snowboarding trip planned to VT so I’m ok with this until after that. 

Amazing temp difference at the beach. Up by the board walk, comfortable 60s. Down right next to the water fridged 40s. The wind had just the slightest south component. Still no backdoor western Nassua, but the westerly wind has died to calm. 

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Arctic.

Yeah I figured. Backdoors do not have that true deep cold you need. The craziest swings are out on the high plains. Like 80 to -10 in a few minutes…

52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature could fall 20°-25° over a 3-6-hour period later today in New York City. For comparison, below are the records for one-hour through six-hour drops in March:

Would love to know if that was an Arctic front or back door 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Could be a nasty ice event up there. Temps here around 80 overrunning that cold air. Should be heavy precip. Hopefully temps are 30 with that rain not 25-27, a lot of it runs off when temps are near freezing. 

Yeah that should save the valleys where most people live. However above 2000’ feet it’s plenty cold for accretion even with heavy rates. Someone in the southern greens is in for a ruff ride.

Warmer outside then it is inside my apartment in Lynbrook currently…

About to head down to Jones Beach. Hoping to catch the BDCF as it wives through. 

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

84 on Long Island and 22 upstate. Has to be closed to a record gradient for the state.

On the warm end it’s gotta be close. But for actual temp difference, an arctic front setup could easily beat that. 

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NAM still insisting on a faster backdoor tomorrow afternoon makes me nervous for LI. These very often come in stronger and faster than expected. It’s some very chilly air to our north. Might be one of those where we can literally see the stratus deck come in from the east. 

Yeah I have been worried about this all week. I plan on going to the beach tomorrow. 
From a meteorological perspective it’s pretty awesome. The last time we saw something similar like 4 or 5 summers ago it was accompanied by a gust front that had 50mph gusts and created a sand storm. It felt like an enormous AC had just went on with the near instantaneous 20 degree temp drop. 
And everything was coming from the east, which is opposite of normal.

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Take the over for Saturday away from the coast

If the flow is straight west JFK will actually be the warm spot for the area. 
More likely it’s the warm spot till like 1 or 2. It would take one hell of a westerly flow to completely negate low 40s water temps without the sea breeze eventually winning out. 

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Yeah. Hypercanes and adios ice caps. 7c in warming would leave large parts of the earth uninhabitable, that’s the places that aren’t underwater… But C02 is great!!!!

15 minutes ago, Feen said:

you think Central Park goes below freezing tonight?

Need some serious CAA this time of year to get the park below freezing. I’d say 35 for the low…

  Currently in West Hempstead and did not see any snow mix in. 

48 minutes ago, crownweather said:

For the hurricane season that I released last Thursday, I went with the following analog years - 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021.  

I do think that we may be looking at a East Coast heavy season in terms of threats and potential impacts.  The NE Caribbean is another concern of mine as is the central Gulf Coast.  

Link to my season forecast - https://crownweather.com/tropical-weather/2025-hurricane-season-forecast/ 

The north east Caribbean is really due for a major. Waters there accumulate heat over the course of years rather then seasons and rely on the upwelling caused by hurricanes for cooling. So essentially that’s an area of virgin OHC. As far as the rest of the Atlantic I think above average ACE is a safe bet. As far as exact landfall locations, I like the SE and gulf again. 

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Worst news I have heard in years

Don’t worry, the cold pool will send us the back door. 
Even if it doesn’t anywhere near the south shore will be significantly colder with water temps still around 40.

2 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Too early for stronger Bermuda High, Canadian will win out IMO. Probably around 55 for Central Park on Saturday. 

Throw in the cold pool off New England and it’s a lock the back door is stronger then expected. I would much prefer the warmth but reality is reality.  

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

imagine if it was all snow lol, we'd jackpot

Yeah. This is definitely the snow hole of Long Island. Getting progressively worse as you head south, with Long Beach being the least snowy location.

Almost an inch in Sw Nassua with a very presistent band of moderate rain. It’s actually brighter now then it was during mid afternoon.  

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

So is this pending Alaskan eruption being overblown?   (pun intended)

Looks to be a rather small VEI 4 eruption of a side vent with a recurrence time of 50 years or so. Cool to watch but a very small climate effect. The main cone has a recurrence time of something like 5,000 years and I would think would be much larger VEI 5 or 6.

8 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Which storm are you talking about?

It was January of 2010 I believe