LongBeachSurfFreak

That complex off the south Jersey coast eould

be an epic flooder if it were over land. 

23 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I see them all the time. 

WX/PT

Yeah they aren’t the plague they were originally billed to be. We actually had more last summer on the uws than this summer. 
Finally a droughtless summer on the island I’m more interested in that.

4 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

From OKX (Twitter (X) feed): 

Did you get woken up from the storms last night/early this am? Below is a summary of lightning data courtesy of @EarthNetworks  (in cloud & cloud to ground) every hour beginning 8 pm Sat & ending 9 am Sunday. About 25,000 strikes occurred during that time, 14,000 from 2 am to 9 am.

Best light show in a decade. It’s so rare to get that continuous lighting on the island. Memorable 

It’s no joke like watching a fire work show finally right now. Nom stop with numerous very intense nearby cloud to ground strikes. Watching from my outdoor covered porch spellbound.

guess those supercells over Ohio held together 

Absolutely epic storm in lynbrook. Best in many many years. Currently continuous lighting. 50ish mph gusts to to start. Soooooo happy I woke up

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Have to wait and see if those storms in western PA make it here...if so after 10pm

Yeah I think that area is our best best for anything significant. Has been producing tons of supercells. So obviously allot instability/shear with that zone heading east

Pretty epic super cells in eastern Ohio right now headed into PA. As per usual I doubt much survives for us later 

37 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It just seems unreasonable at this time to put 11 hurricanes on any forecast this year. It’s mid August and we have had 1 (barely) hurricane with no sign of any forming through late month. Getting 10 storms in September/October alone would be busy but 10 hurricanes then sounds ludicrous based on what we’ve seen to this point. Someone can save this post to remind me I said this when that happens but that’s a comical forecast to me though I guess the point is the median lies with an above average season when the dust settles 

I hate to say it but I agree. I think too many people, pros included are warm water drunk so to speak. The Atlantic could be 40c and if there’s a ton of shear and dry air it doesn’t matter. 
That said, any storm that finds a moist low shear area has the potential to go nuclear.

This is basically what long term climate models are forecasting. More cat 5s and less 1/2s relative to climatology.

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Nothing ever again

Right…. Slow but not forgotten. Though I think some of the major forecast have a high bust potential. 

Dora looks spectacular this morning. This is going to be one monster ace producer as it has several more days as a major. 

Damn looks like a cold pool aloft type precip shield. We will take the rain on the drought stricken south shore

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I doubt the area of rain survives any further east then the city 

I guess you’re not following forks. Elevated  …..

That has all the hallmarks of a derecho on radar for south/central Jersey. This might be a memorable event down there

7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

That is a beast of a line on the MD/PA border moving east.

Definitely a derecho in progress. Just insane radar as it went through northern MD

Storms west of the DC area look like something out the Great Plains. It’s going to be one hell of a day there.

we are finally destabilizing here, so I wouldn’t totally write our are off 

10 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks annular

They had a nice south swell last year that led to a few popular videos of swells crashing at a wedding event .

The N shore is where their legendary swells hit from ..the huge gradient between winter high pressure and monster sized Aleutian Low pressures .  

This south swell should be sweet and hit areas that only see that sort of action from tropical systems .

 

edit it’s actually pretty tiny regarding hurricane force winds extending only 20 miles out and tropical storm force winds 60 miles , so regarding wave Size generation where fetch plays such a large part .. the swell will be sort of equal to a 100mph storm with a moderate size 

Exactly. Fetch and duration are actually equally important. You can get captured fetch when a storm is moving fast enough to entrain its own swell. So there is likely a large east swell moving with the storm currently, but to the westerly movement it will miss the islands. The best example of captured fetch was hurricane bill of 08 in the north east. The storm was moving north west towards the coast with a large captured swell ejected as the storm eventually turned north. That produced the largest swell I have witnessed on Long Island. With sets in the 15 foot range causing massive wash overs and beach erosion under sunny sky’s. 

5 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Dora has completed its EWRC and has restrengthened into a Category 4 storm with winds of 145mph. Beautiful presentation on IR satellite right now

 

 

Yeah I was surprised know when was talking about this storm. Very resilient microcane. Contains some annular properties which would explain the resilience. Very long track too

Zip on the island and the city last night. Always surprises me when a front comes through dry this time of year. Onto Monday/Tuesday 

Some very nice storms over Pa and upstate currently. We are kind of in the squeeze play between that action and precip down south 

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We were in the 80s here in the mid Atlantic/SNE regions in two Febs over the last 7 years fwiw 

Yet we can’t crack 100 during the summer. Most likely do to increased DP. Kind of like Florida, Hi capital but also really breaks 100.

18 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The trough along the East Coast looks to move W towards the central Great Lakes/Ohio Valley toward mid-month.  I suspect the Atlantic remains unfavorable with subsidence and dry air, but it would seem unlikely nothing at all (perhaps a non-tropical system becoming tropical) develops in the second half of August.  The Euro weeklies change a bit from run to run, but generally hint at activity near ECUSA latter half of August.

 

Hint of something not tropical on op GFS, an area of moisture with a very weak upper level disturbance near 40N/60W day 8 drifts SW toward the Bahamas around day 12, and from there, it looks like a standard tropical wave.  Moves across Florida, starts to organize in the Gulf, runs out of time.  Not to rely on a single op run, (hi, @ldub23) much of the run beyond the 10 day resolution truncation., but close in developments, maybe around the Bahamas, with higher heights to the E.  (That would bring back fond memories of 1976 and Hurricane Belle)

Belle likely would have been a hurricane at landfall on Long Island based on current water temps, keeping all other factors the same. We are loosing our hurricane buffer more and more. This will soon be prime hurricane coastline.

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Uprooted tree from yesterday’s thunderstorm in southern Westchester County. 

 

Hard to tell, but I think that’s an ash, which would be doomed anyway. 

Wind gust to 48 knots at the 44065 the ny harbor buoy, and .86” at the wantagh meso. Very very rare win for the south shore of the island. 

Of course I headed north to catch what I thought would be the best of the storm on the north shore. Caught the double rainbow and maybe 40mph gusts while going up the wantagh. Should have stayed at the beach where I’m sure it ended up epic

Storms in Pa could consolidate into a nice squall line. Winds just tripled In an hour at Jones beach. Ruff conditions with multiple rescues.