LongBeachSurfFreak

Ripping right now in lynbrook. Radar isn’t doing it justice, I must be under an intense pocket. So loud under my awning I thought it might be small hail. 

Looks like the line is splitting the city… ..urban heat island effect

Very dark with rolling thunder currently at jones beach. Wind tripled in speed in about an hour too. Hoping to see some lightning over the ocean

Nice baby super cell (discrete cell) moving through central Jersey. Let’s see if it holds together moving towards the city.

Barely a drop here on the south shore of Nassau. Hopefully not a sign of a repeat from last summer when we couldn’t buy a drop during most of these events 

3 hours ago, Cfa said:

Every time I hear the Blue Angels I think it’s thunder. I’m pretty far away from ISP, I’m surprised I can hear them.

79 here, had a brief shower this morning that has now evaporated.

Wasn’t the blue angles, they were half way through the show (they are at the end) and they had cancel the show. A ridiculously thick fog bank rolled in off the ocean. It’s still so foggy here at jones beach we have the water closed as we can’t see the water from the life guard stand. And speaking of the water it’s incredibly warm for this early in the season. A couple sunny warm days and light winds and it’s in the mid 60s

45 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Long Island certainly overdue for a land falling hurricane. Last one was Gloria in 1985.

They tend to come in bunches. 54 had 3 events produce hurricane force winds on Long Island. Carol, Edna and hazel. It really comes down to the pattern. If we end up in a landfall pattern for the north east this season it could get real serious. 38 today, would be a 100+ billion dollar disaster 

Absolutely ripping on the uws. Flash flooding type rain

That’s actually a pretty solid MCS building. Nice cold pool precip pocket on the backside too. Should hold together all the way to the city 

12 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy crap

Fully expect a parade of majors in the mdr. Maybe even multiple cat 5s. Historic season incoming.

22 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

70dbz spike on that supercell near New City

edit...75dbz+ sheesh

That’s golf ball or larger hail for sure. Would love to see video.

There’s a couple of nice super cells in Pa currently. Hoping for at least a decent severe event tomorrow 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Siberia

Siberia doesn’t get much snow. (Mainland, maybe on the coast) it’s just a giant dome of cold dry air most of the winter. Sunny and -50 for months. The summers are surprisingly hot with swarms of mosquitoes so thick it looks like a dust storm. Probably the worst place on earth to live.

The last few rain events including today so far haven’t really amounted to much, lots of .01 type hour rates. Let’s see if that changes later, better rates to the south.

32 12 4

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Actually it doesn't.... the more it rains the worse our pollen season gets.  We need to desiccate the crap that causes allergies to the point it can't pollinate anymore.  The horrible increase in rainfall over the last 20 years has made the allergy season much much worse than it was in the 80s and 90s and all the way to 2002.  I noticed my allergies were MUCH less last year when we had a very dry and much warmer spring.

At this point, we should be spraying herbicides to kill the crap outright. I've already started spraying, but it's not enough, everyone has to do it.

 

I’m baffled how you could possibly claim to care about the environment yet you want to drain the oceans and kill all plants.

your an ideal candidate for a mars colonist 

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z 5/11 WB CFS control run for DJF 2024-5 literally has an anomaly of -5C at Chicago which is -9F! This is using 1981-2010 climo. That means this would be the coldest winter on record their even barely beating winters like 1903-4 and 2013-4! Meanwhile, far N Lower Michigan is +1C/+2F! How can that even be possible when Chi is -9F? There’s something seriously off with some of the WB CFS seasonal maps and not just with the SSTa maps that keep showing a +PDO. That’s not JB (though he chose to post it). That’s WB CFS and I can’t recall ever seeing such an amazing discrepancy between frigid WB and AN TT for the same model! Granted, TT maps are for 3 days of runs (12 runs) averaged out vs the WB being just one run. But come on! And again, how could Chi be -9F while N Lower MI is +2F?

Edit: How could south central Lake Michigan air temps be -6C/-11F while a mere 150 miles to the north over N Lake Mich it is right at normal?

Considering the mechanism that brings cold air to Chicago (out of the Arctic and down south) that map really is impossible. 

Actually ended up with a decent little storm on the uws. Couple bolts and some torrential rain.

Nice area of precip headed our way, just did the spring plant installation on campus so would love a soaking. More than likely it will split to the north and south of the city. 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This morning has been absolutely awesome-- lots of sunshine!

I got lots of pictures in of my pink peony tree flowers before the rain takes down the flowers (hopefully not all of them.)

That’s a Japanese Kwanzan cherry. 
 

BRING ON THE RAIN!

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, he’s simply finding the coldest and snowiest winters for the east coast and saying they are “analogs” just like he does every single winter for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from his weenie base. His next wishcast will be that 95-96 is an analog too. As predictable as the rising sun. Wash, rinse, repeat 

We are definitely on the same page here. 13/14 was a strong -epo based winter, which we haven’t seen since. Why would that suddenly come back? 

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

this is so changeable that it changes from moment to moment.

The temperatures are fine, but it looks like Tuesday and Wednesday are better than the other days.

Why the hell is NY turning into a rain forest?

 

I really think you belong in San Diego. 70 and sunny all the time, with the wind off the pacific low allergens too.

being that I love plants and am a horticulturalist, I’ll take the rain. 

37 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i wished i lived in montauk during the summer at least even in june you can wear a hoodie in the morning..

Gets hot there too once the ocean warms up and the winds out of the west. 
currently perfect on the uws, sitting right between the sea breeze boundary.

things are really starting to dry out though. Need a good soaking rain. 

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Per satellite visible satellite loop low clouds eroding west to east pretty quickly.  Should warm up nicely once the sun breaks out.

Agreed, temps will shoot up the second the sun comes out. This time of year working on the uws and living on the south shore of Long Island, the temp differences are extreme. Yesterday left work in shorts and Tshirt and was freezing when I got home. 

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

And just to give a sense of how insane the VEI scale and explosive volcanism in general gets, assuming Ruang hits a minimal VEI 5 of 1 cubic kilometer (St Helens was 1.2 cubic kilometer, much of that erupted laterally), it would have to further erupt 10x more volume to reach a minimal VEI 6 (around what Hunga Tonga did, and a little less than Pinatubo).

From current levels (again assuming 1 cubic kilometer - a minimal VEI 5), it would have to erupt 100x more material to reach a VEI 7, 150x in the case of Tambora. 

To reach a ‘supereruption’ at VEI 8, it would need 1000x its current erupted volume. 

The Toba supereruption 75kya was 3500-5000x this hypothetical VEI 5 Ruang eruption. 

I really hope I get to experience a VEI 7 in my lifetime. Purely from a meteorological perspective. Too much to write in regards to how incredible that would be in the face of global warming.