LongBeachSurfFreak

Absolutely ripping on the uws. Flash flooding type rain

That’s actually a pretty solid MCS building. Nice cold pool precip pocket on the backside too. Should hold together all the way to the city 

12 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy crap

Fully expect a parade of majors in the mdr. Maybe even multiple cat 5s. Historic season incoming.

22 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

70dbz spike on that supercell near New City

edit...75dbz+ sheesh

That’s golf ball or larger hail for sure. Would love to see video.

There’s a couple of nice super cells in Pa currently. Hoping for at least a decent severe event tomorrow 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Siberia

Siberia doesn’t get much snow. (Mainland, maybe on the coast) it’s just a giant dome of cold dry air most of the winter. Sunny and -50 for months. The summers are surprisingly hot with swarms of mosquitoes so thick it looks like a dust storm. Probably the worst place on earth to live.

The last few rain events including today so far haven’t really amounted to much, lots of .01 type hour rates. Let’s see if that changes later, better rates to the south.

32 12 4

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Actually it doesn't.... the more it rains the worse our pollen season gets.  We need to desiccate the crap that causes allergies to the point it can't pollinate anymore.  The horrible increase in rainfall over the last 20 years has made the allergy season much much worse than it was in the 80s and 90s and all the way to 2002.  I noticed my allergies were MUCH less last year when we had a very dry and much warmer spring.

At this point, we should be spraying herbicides to kill the crap outright. I've already started spraying, but it's not enough, everyone has to do it.

 

I’m baffled how you could possibly claim to care about the environment yet you want to drain the oceans and kill all plants.

your an ideal candidate for a mars colonist 

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z 5/11 WB CFS control run for DJF 2024-5 literally has an anomaly of -5C at Chicago which is -9F! This is using 1981-2010 climo. That means this would be the coldest winter on record their even barely beating winters like 1903-4 and 2013-4! Meanwhile, far N Lower Michigan is +1C/+2F! How can that even be possible when Chi is -9F? There’s something seriously off with some of the WB CFS seasonal maps and not just with the SSTa maps that keep showing a +PDO. That’s not JB (though he chose to post it). That’s WB CFS and I can’t recall ever seeing such an amazing discrepancy between frigid WB and AN TT for the same model! Granted, TT maps are for 3 days of runs (12 runs) averaged out vs the WB being just one run. But come on! And again, how could Chi be -9F while N Lower MI is +2F?

Edit: How could south central Lake Michigan air temps be -6C/-11F while a mere 150 miles to the north over N Lake Mich it is right at normal?

Considering the mechanism that brings cold air to Chicago (out of the Arctic and down south) that map really is impossible. 

Actually ended up with a decent little storm on the uws. Couple bolts and some torrential rain.

Nice area of precip headed our way, just did the spring plant installation on campus so would love a soaking. More than likely it will split to the north and south of the city. 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This morning has been absolutely awesome-- lots of sunshine!

I got lots of pictures in of my pink peony tree flowers before the rain takes down the flowers (hopefully not all of them.)

That’s a Japanese Kwanzan cherry. 
 

BRING ON THE RAIN!

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, he’s simply finding the coldest and snowiest winters for the east coast and saying they are “analogs” just like he does every single winter for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from his weenie base. His next wishcast will be that 95-96 is an analog too. As predictable as the rising sun. Wash, rinse, repeat 

We are definitely on the same page here. 13/14 was a strong -epo based winter, which we haven’t seen since. Why would that suddenly come back? 

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

this is so changeable that it changes from moment to moment.

The temperatures are fine, but it looks like Tuesday and Wednesday are better than the other days.

Why the hell is NY turning into a rain forest?

 

I really think you belong in San Diego. 70 and sunny all the time, with the wind off the pacific low allergens too.

being that I love plants and am a horticulturalist, I’ll take the rain. 

37 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i wished i lived in montauk during the summer at least even in june you can wear a hoodie in the morning..

Gets hot there too once the ocean warms up and the winds out of the west. 
currently perfect on the uws, sitting right between the sea breeze boundary.

things are really starting to dry out though. Need a good soaking rain. 

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Per satellite visible satellite loop low clouds eroding west to east pretty quickly.  Should warm up nicely once the sun breaks out.

Agreed, temps will shoot up the second the sun comes out. This time of year working on the uws and living on the south shore of Long Island, the temp differences are extreme. Yesterday left work in shorts and Tshirt and was freezing when I got home. 

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

And just to give a sense of how insane the VEI scale and explosive volcanism in general gets, assuming Ruang hits a minimal VEI 5 of 1 cubic kilometer (St Helens was 1.2 cubic kilometer, much of that erupted laterally), it would have to further erupt 10x more volume to reach a minimal VEI 6 (around what Hunga Tonga did, and a little less than Pinatubo).

From current levels (again assuming 1 cubic kilometer - a minimal VEI 5), it would have to erupt 100x more material to reach a VEI 7, 150x in the case of Tambora. 

To reach a ‘supereruption’ at VEI 8, it would need 1000x its current erupted volume. 

The Toba supereruption 75kya was 3500-5000x this hypothetical VEI 5 Ruang eruption. 

I really hope I get to experience a VEI 7 in my lifetime. Purely from a meteorological perspective. Too much to write in regards to how incredible that would be in the face of global warming. 

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Work inside then

Exactly, that’s why I switched careers at 30. Nothing worse than being stuck in a windowless cubicle when you’re a weather enthusiast. Now I get to experience every weather event. I would never go back.

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes. 

Those Caribbean cruiser/ GOF seasons aren’t great for Long Island surfers, so I’ll pass.

Personally I think this season will be so hyperactive there will be activity everywhere. That and the eastern MDR being so freakishly warm leads to a tendency for early development and strengthening which favors recurves.

28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

1012 is seriously weak sauce. No wonder the rain didn’t materialize…

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Could be another nice event for the ski resorts.

Not much still open unfortunately. Killington always goes super late though and would benefit 

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following last night's rainstorm at the New York Botanical Garden.

Don, I respect your integrity but the first pic is suspect. Are you sure that was taken today? You know I’m a horticulturalist at Columbia and a huge climate change backer but that pic seems off. We are barely cracking buds on the earliest flowering trees here. And maybe a few daffodils…

2 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

Gusts as high as 46mph at ISP and 50mph at JFK so far

It was roaring in lynbrook earlier. Kind of in a lol

now that the low is closing in. 

2.32” at the wantagh meso so far. Roads were fine on the way into work. Over 4” on the week, should be around 6” by the weekend.