CoraopolisWx

After a quick look at all the Feb. snow totals, 0.2" should be the new record.

There’s some monster deficits on that list. SMH

Sneaky 71 at AGC last hr.

We finally got a vort to dig further south for the weekend, it’s just too far south. 
Unfortunately with no blocking it goes ots.

23 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Who are the big 3 if the Euro isn't one of them?

The GFS, CMC, and Euro.

I just mentioned the Euro, because it tends to lead the way with these types of storms.

Would like to see the Euro start to get onboard soon though.

nice winter scene earlier

The big 3 are all showing potential for next Saturday.

The GFS finally has a vort digging into the mid south, allowing for earlier development.

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

WTF has caused that, lol?!

A new lake will form just west of Steubenville, helping to boost that areas economy, and provide us with much needed LES.

Lol

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Slowly but surely I'm seeing people give up on winter in other regions/forums after this next period. This may just be the year where it just doesn't snow. Obviously we are better off since we don't live near the coast but the long range looks pretty grim. 

IMHO another cause is the rare January torch affecting so many. 
The past 15 years have had December and February torch’s, but usually January had been pretty dependable as a winter month. 

8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I wasn't expecting much it was nice to just get a wintry feeling day. At my house I got a little under an inch. On to next week

 

Seems elevation dependent. 
A light grass covering on Washington Rd in Mt Lebanon, but down the road a bit there’s barely anything even on the grass.   

Maybe next Wednesday will work out for everyone. 

All we can do now is pray for our northern posters. 

10 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Coming down rather nicely at the moment.

Traffic cams still showing snow in Greene county, hopefully they can hold out for awhile, as our first line of defense.

Fair skies this evening doesn’t hurt. 
Any little bit helps. 

The sad part is that these used to be a dime a dozen, now more often it's all we got. 

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

What's the best guidance for seeing this? 

Honestly I just happened notice it on the NAM yesterday at 18z, then today I noticed that line of flurries passing through the city, then washing out just south.

Just seeing smaller features that could factor in tomorrow.

31 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

What does this mean in general?  I assume it doesn't mean where the actual r/s line sets up.

Pretty much we're that line will be when the heaviest precip comes through.

10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Yeah this one is cooked. I don't see how we even see an inch out of this on the front end. 

These midwest storms just don't have the juice an east coast storm has.

That 850mb fetch off the Atlantic makes all the difference.

Not sure if this will make any difference, but there is a boundary crossing the metro right now, which actually showed up on the NAM yesterday.

Will be curious how far south it pushes today, and then where that initial RN/SN line sets up tomorrow morning.

1 hour ago, jwilson said:

It's near impossible to trust anything in this pattern.

Granted, it's the fantasy range so hardly worth analyzing, but even when the thermal boundary sets up in Northern Alabama/Georgia, the GFS still wants to cut the storm to our west.  It's pretty laughable at this point.

We're just on the wrong side of the boundary this year with everything.  It's probably safe to assume all viable threats will cut until they don't.  No blocking + southeast ridge, absent a well-timed TPV interaction.

Yeah, unfortunately the mean trough has been a bit west of what the NWS hinted at this fall.

I agree though, until we get that big banana high to setup over S. Quebec, it's likely more of the same.

IIRC with past similar storms, the NAM at this range joins the CMC with a stronger WAA push.

So far it has stayed steady with a more muted push, tonights 0z run will be interesting.

GFS verified on that small dryslot/void it showed for a couple days. 
 

52 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Looks like it's really drying out to the south also.  Looks to be over soon.  Barely even started.  Let down, I guess.

Yeah, glad I looked out the window earlier and caught that brief snow shower.

Looking at the satellite loop, it seems also that we’re in between the two main pieces of energy for this broad overall system. Combo of marginal temps, limited lift, and low precip rates will be a challenge. 
But hopefully we’ll at least get some lower visibility snow to help the mood.