CoraopolisWx

The 6z GFS mid and upper level set up is not your classic look, but it seems to work with the energy.

That narrow band of heavier snow some of the guidance was showing verified above 1050 ft. 
Nice covering on the grass here in Mt Lebanon. 

Signal for next weekend looking more solid. 
And as usual for us, the primary/850 strength and placement is the question. 
Hopefully we get a Dec 2020 result, where the primary 850 becomes muted enough not to flood the region with warm/dry air. 

Temps look to level out over the next 4 days, but still a monster AN departure for Dec.

5th Dec. in the last 100 yrs to crack the 40F mark, however 3rd in only the last 9 years. SMH

6 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

I did some detective work. This appears to be it.

 

That one still stings a bit. Although I would that take that underachieving storm in a minute, compared to what we’ve had lately. Lol

57 minutes ago, TimB said:

I feel like that may have been one where they just rolled with an advisory and it overperformed. Am I wrong?

Edit: It looks like we had a watch that was later downgraded to an advisory, which they kept through the duration of the event.

So we had a watch then, but the last time Allegheny county was pink was in January 2022.

Sounds familiar now that you mention it. 
I do remember the Jan 22 storm ended up being more NW, limiting totals south and East of Pgh. 
However region wide wall to wall watch to warning has been awhile. 

4 hours ago, north pgh said:

It looks like the colder air filters down late next week. Hoping to start with some more lake effect and then the pattern change will hopefully begin.

Man it feels like it's been 2 years since we've even tracked a potential winter storm watch type storm. 

It basically has been.

March 2022 was the last one.

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Yes of course but we need arctic air which the pattern doesn't support. Guess we shall see as we enter January. All it takes is one storm and all the sudden we consider this a good winter. I'm not gonna lie though if I didn't admit that I like snow in December. 

I probably should go back and research December 2020. 
I don’t remember anything special about the pattern, which delivered such a good month. 

IMHO, we can assume the majority of the precip Sun/Mon will be rain. 
However if we can get some colder 850’s to arrive earlier than modeled, then during the heaviest rates some very low ratio snow could fall at times. 
Probably our only shot right know. 

4 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

It appears that tomorrow/Mondays event will be just a near miss for a decent shot of light snow. NAM 3k is just a little too far east. We need a clipper or something to get the mood better in this place. 

One thing with tomorrow is it did trend slightly west but we are running out of time for this to move enough west to get something. In fact the HRRR has moved west as well. See if this trend continues. 

Not to go off topic with hyperbole, but even in N/S dominant winters the Alberta Clipper seems to be less frequent than past winters, especially the last 10. 
Just feel like the 80’s 90’s and 00’s had  more clippers, even during lean years. 
Could just be revisionist history being different from reality. Lol

1 hour ago, TimB said:

It survived the 0z and 6z runs.

Perhaps more importantly, the 0z Canadian bought in.

Then again, temps are very marginal, it’s not on any ensemble and it’s 8-9 days away.

15 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

18z gfs shows a nice paste bomb 9 days from now. Granted it probably will shift like crazy just nice seeing a threat. Also seems like the trend so far has been east just like Mondays mess. 

Saw this on the gfs a few days ago, but didn’t give it a second look. 
But it could have legs if a logical evolution is being shown by midweek. 

The NWS took a bit of an L yesterday. 
They thought downsloping would hinder any precip development, however with N-NE surface winds, this was not an issue. 
Usually said winds are SE, or to a lesser extent E. 

Possibly these Mets relocated here, and aren’t familiar with local climate. 
Regardless this would’ve been a nice surprise in the winter. 

Wouldn’t mind this setup in the winter. 

Good old fashioned gusty northerly. 
Line held together longer than I thought earlier. 

Decent storm rolling through the South Hills.

3 hours ago, north pgh said:

I like the weather for temperature but I miss the thunderstorms and we need humidity for that. Still a lot of summer to go. 

Definitely an unusual start to met summer. This dry back door cold front pattern would be more useful with a strong STJ in the winter. 

Anyone getting any mixed precip ?

I think most of us here have a common bond through weather/physical science in general, with varying degrees of preference.

As long as we respect each others opinions it's all good. Sometimes feeling/intent doesn't always translate through the typed word.

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, no.  It's Spring, let's act like it.

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Not me.  After mid-March, I'm done.  Bring on the warmer weather.

Then you can stay in your Spring thread, unless you have something useful to post in the winter thread. 

If it only rained, long range model verification would be 95-100%.

Oh wait...  SMH

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some pics from ORH on winter hill. Just over 14”…amazingly less than 5 miles way at similar elevation had over 2 feet…the 900-925 warmth overnight prior to about 7am was most of the difference (about 13-17” vs 4” at 7am yesterday…beyond 7am, snow accumulated roughly at similar rates/amounts) 

 

 

 

 

3 NNE Worcester AP           23.0 in   1211 AM 03/15
Templeton                    23.0 in   0643 AM 03/15   Trained Spotter
1 NE Fitchburg AP            19.4 in   0609 PM 03/14   Public
Phillipston                  19.0 in   0400 PM 03/14   Amateur Radio
Holden 0.9 SSE               19.0 in   0530 AM 03/15   COCORAHS
Barre 1.4 NNE                17.2 in   0700 AM 03/15   COCORAHS
Worcester AP                 14.4 in   1108 PM 03/14

Significant H9 variance.

Looks like a solid band about to move in.

Classic blustery NW flow day.

Refreshing.

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Could you make the argument that Pittsburgh (in the city) has seen less than 8.8” this winter? I think it’s possible.

In the river valleys, it’s possible. 

41 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I think you’re the only one still worried about getting snow this season, lol.

I’m still keeping an eye on next weekend. (And the rest of the month).
Although the OP’s have pivoted to a far NW solution, not all is lost yet based on a few red tagged comments I’ve seen in other threads.