CoraopolisWx

Hopefully we still get a period of heavier snow. Don’t want a rain to dryslot to flurries scenario. 

11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Last post for a bit. How is the gfs so much different compared to the RGEM. Hopefully it's wrong. 

It does seem a bit odd how the gfs moves the low due north that far before transferring. 

Euro still hanging on, but the the margin for error is so slim, this side of the transfer. 

29 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

12z….GFS taken literally has more snow than the Euro IMBY… but that look scares me. This will probably flip flop a few times by Sunday, so going to try to put it down for 24 hours 

18z is even more extreme with the cutoff. During the transfer we could have pockets of different 850 temps, similar to last months morning slush event.

Gfs can't decide between a bloated 850 low and a more compact version.

21 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Tuesday and Sunday of next week may be our best chance of landing a good snowfall. At least we can start tracking again maybe.

Not a bad look overall, just gotta make sure that 850 low doesn't go any further north.

I might be reading this incorrectly. But the long range ridging out west looks impressive, however the inverse trough seems more flat, stretching across the OV into the mid Atlantic. 
Would like to see that trough dig into the mid south at worst.  

Euro showing some life in the long range. 

37 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

im bored 

Yeah, "patience on a monument" will be needed no doubt.

I guess we can do some leftover yard and gutter cleaning while we wait. Lol

Not many analog years for a second half February comeback. 
The only one that comes to mind is 1993. 
And even without the two big storms that season, we still managed about 35”. 
 

Dose anyone in this area still have a pack leftover ?

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Folks are still optimistic about mid February based on the guidance. 
The 12z gfs even showed a little love at the end of the run. 

5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Why were they soul crushing?  We really weren’t expected to get anything but rain.

For that exact reason.  
It wasn’t an ideal track, but normally a late January storm like this provides something frozen. 
The gfs had this locked down 5 days ago. 

I know 20-21 is unrealistic to expect most years, but too often we’re like a mangy old dog rooting around a dumpster for scraps. SMH. 

Last night and today were kinda soul crushing.

Anyone catch that lightning earlier ?

53 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm sure the 3k doesn't look like this but the 12k NAM has a faster changeover

3k is more so an inch but something to keep an eye tomorrow.

Yeah, the nam has been consistent in showing some back end pity snow. 
Would be nice to see the other models agree, but we’ll see. 

Still doing the research, but it seems the snowfall droughts are increasing.

Yes, overall our average annual snowfall has increased these past 20+ years, however these past 10 years especially, we can go 15-20 days in between snowfalls 0.1" or more.

In the past that number was never more than 8-10 days.

23 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Let's get back to weather we actually care about

The latest sref ticked our snow up slightly for that next system. Not expecting much but it would be nice if we could sneak an inch or two during our "bad period".

Keeping the center of that 850 vort south of us might be too much to ask, however a more compact center could allow a quicker change over, and less dry slotting.

I think we found our mascot. 

Others on here are better at analysis, but I was reading in the mid Atlantic long range thread that in layman’s, the longer Canada torches, the longer it will take to reset back to a favorable pattern. 

15 minutes ago, TimB said:

Lol. The streak continues. No advisory level snowfalls at PIT in 678 days. 23 to go for 2nd place.

Lol. Just saw that. 
Unfortunately in this instance the official records are taken north of the airport itself. 
The terminal probably had close to 4”, based on that band yesterday evening. 

Next weekend is really close to something, with the right placement and timing.