AppsRunner

I haven't looked at any guidance tonight but DEN recorded 0.12" in an hour while the temperature was -9F so clearly this storm will overperform.

3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Anyone have any snowfall prediction maps?

Made this one myself, hope you enjoy. 

6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

you're out in denver now, eh?

should connect with @Thundersnow12. he's at kden.

Yep, and now I only know how to forecast NW flow jet bands and upslope. 

5 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Pass 

But now who will tell me my TAFs are bad? 

5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Idk why but it looks like it’s the ARW members vs the NMB members, where the former is much more amped.

That's not particularly surprising. The ARW cores have that tendency vs NMM. We see it a lot in Colorado. I wouldn't put much faith into it anyways since it's the SREF but it sure is fun to look at sometimes 

Quick, someone post the new SREF

Early trends are... not great, unless you want it to snow in Cleveland. 

4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Wait...is this thread for once the storm passes?   

I thought this storm was already over?

The ECM ensemble continue a slightly weaker/slower evolution through the Ohio valley and is at least a slight jog east. The STL-IND-DTW track feels like a reasonable middle ground for now. 

I'll still take the over for ALEK. 

This run did not show exactly what I wanted, so it is clearly wrong.

Proud of the GFS for managing to be west of the NAM

Outside of Tuesday the long range pattern looks hot through the majority of September. How far will we go into October before we see snow?

About 1.5" in Boulder at 6pm. Wondering when the snow shuts off here tonight, probably will hold on for a few more hours of good snow 

2 hours ago, Chinook said:

It seems like that batch of snow is just over to the west. I guess it could surprise people at 5:00PM, but hopefully this snow has made enough headlines that people pay attention.

Yeah, I'm sure some people called it over when the metro saw drizzle all day. At the office things have whitened up. We'll see how it goes. Road temps down to the upper 30s

The images coming out of CYS/UNR is why I'm still concerned for Denver metro this evening. I know we've been warmer but road temps could still cool substantially today and if we get good rates it could yet rough this evening, especially if nobody's expecting it. 36F and rain downtown for now though, looks like Broomfield was low 30s and 1/2 SM with snow 

1 hour ago, skierinvermont said:

Looks like the GFS just backed off a little. very borderline now. 

The GFS has been running the hottest and has been significantly overdoing QPF during the day tomorrow. The better signal is for a good round of QPF with better surface temps and a deeper DGZ 21-12Z where the ECM and it's ensemble members have consistently shown. Recent CAM runs have also come on board (at least somewhat) in the past couple cycles. The evening snow is a bit more concerning for pavement accumulations, but still would imagine snow only sticks to pavement in the metro. Of course, it has to happen first. 

1 hour ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Long as there's a good slug of moisture that gets into the ground, I'll be happy. Snow before the equinox somehow doesn't thrill me as much as it would in, say, October. But I have to say this kind of setup is something I'd kill for in February. Somehow the last few years, any 4 corners lows seem to come and go in a matter of a few hours.

I'm mostly happy that this will spit out a lot for the Cameron Peak fire. Satellite has not been pretty the past two days. 

Holding firm on the Warnings/Advisories. Seems like most accums for the metro are going to come afternoon into overnight tomorrow. Still think a good snow is in store for the metro, but it's going to be borderline.

No headlines for the mountains today, but probably coming soon. Metro still a question mark but at least some snow accumulation looking like a safe bet. Meanwhile 101F today is the all time September record 

Forecast desk this weekend. Ready to have some fun! 

Think at the very least the metro will see some flakes. Not sold on accumulations here but we're getting closer...

12 hours ago, Chinook said:

Denver had the hottest August in history, tied with August 2011 (77.0 degrees). Phoenix, and Las Vegas had the hottest August in history. Yuma AZ had the 2nd hottest August in history. Tucson had the hottest August, which was also the hottest single month in history with an average of 92.0 degrees. Grand Junction CO had the hottest August in history.

From a purely technical standpoint, August 2020 was 0.016 degrees hotter. The sum of highs and lows in 2011 was 4774 degrees, and this year was 4775. Couldn't have been any closer! 

Anyone else see the Euro for next week? 94 Monday, followed by 6-10" of snow for the plains Monday night into Wednesday. That seems... optimistic

That small circulation just to the west of KLOT looks like trouble. No obvious TDS but its also got 90kt at 450ft so it's gonna produce damage one way or the other. 

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

DVN still gusting 58kts currently.

Severe winds are lasting a bit longer than the usual hit and go.

The was a report that the severe winds lasted at CID for ~45mins.

Arguably stronger winds behind the main line, DVN gust to 75kt a few minutes ago. 

Again back by Des Moines, but getting some better resolution photos out there.

The ratio of sig severe gusts in this has been extremely impressive. This has to be a high risk upgrade at some point soon. They put out the 1630 update early, surely an early-issue 20z high is in the cards.

Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 4 ENE Shellsburg [Linn Co, IA] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG  at 12:58 PM CDT -- estimated gusts over 100 mph with multiple campers blown over, along with the shelter roof at the park blown off.