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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Economy is booming here. What field? 

One where I can keep my red tag 

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You know what’s they say. Once you go lake effect, you’ll never go back. 

I've spent the last three days thinking about how I can find a job in BUF or CNY.

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My GOD the rates

Told you to be patient! Band probably will swing all the way through Watertown for a brief period of time before it slowly works its way south again later this afternoon

27 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

Need your guys hrlp and thoughts? How much snow  amounts you guys thinking for the city of oswego later this evening and into tonight once the winds toward  mpre wnwesterly???

16 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

Wolfie, tughill, and cnylesfreak how much snow would you guys peg the city of oswego getting tonight once the winds align wnw??  Just Looking at that hhr map accum. Map and it off looks like such a tight gradient...Im up here by the suny oswego college  looking due north and you can visually see the plume of lake effect band pummeling so Jeff, and northern oswego...also how long does that lake effect band kn a wnw flow stay stationary tonight?? Or do youbguys seeing it oscillating some?? Thanks guys

I assume you're probably a new met student at SUNY Oswego? PM me if you ever want, recent grad.

I'd say less than an inch. At least classes were cancelled today. 

4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Seriously? So the band jumps over us and reforms to the south?

This winter is just too much. I am going to be bald by March.

You're going to pick up some snow. The HRRR is bad with LES intensity/placement/inland extent. I can't say I ever really use it even during the events themselves. 

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah last night was really good, but hard not to wonder what could have been if I wasn’t 4 miles too south and 2 miles too north. It happens so I’m still glad I made the trip. The ground blizzard last night was impressive.

Would be good to get a last hurrah late this afternoon/evening as the bottom falls out on temps. 

I think you'll even make a run at getting into this band within the next couple hours if it continues to lift further north. If you have a car and want to attempt to drive to Adams or Adams Center you'll have a good time. 

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks for the write-up. Looking at models, I thought my best shot would be tonight. You think Redfield/Osceola could get appreciable amounts?

Depends what your definition of "appreciable" is. I'd be willing to bet Redfield gets at least 12", there's a 12-18 hour long period of better aligned flow tonight into tomorrow. 

For those downwind of Ontario not really seeing much right now...

Band should lift at least a little northward through the afternoon and evening as winds start to back a bit more. Watertown got pretty unlucky yesterday where and east-west oriented band managed to stay due north of them for a while, and there's a pretty impressive snowfall gradient there by now. I'd have to imagine the band lifts to about Watertown/Carthage this evening before winds become a bit more WNWerly by late this evening. Flow looks fairly well aligned through most of the night and would point towards areas of central/northern Oswego county finally getting some appreciable snows. Inversion heights start to fall overnight so we aren't looking at the 2-4"/hr. in the core of the band right now, but still could see 2"/hr. rates for an extended period of time if the band stays fairly steady state. By Friday afternoon we may see one last swing up north as the band shrinks/weakens and warm air advection moves in. 

Still generally like the idea of about 24-36 from Sandy Creek to Adams Center and about 12-24 anywhere within 5 miles of that, especially in the Tug. 

10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Carol just reported 1-2 inches per hour in N. Redfield. 

@Phillifan22 and a few others are at the Gathering Place and said about 1.75"/hr. or so

21 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Many times, when a band is moving (in this case it drifted south), the heaviest snows will be located on the edge, where the convergence zone is, opposite of motion with respect to the radar depiction.  (In this case, on the northern 1/3 of the radar returns) sometimes, you will see high reflectivities over your head (800-1200 feet) but the flakes at that level are being drawn into the convergence zone (in this case, just to your north!!)

I had several experiences with that in Oswego, and a couple times chasing through Pulaski/Sandy Creek. 

Looks like a patch of low clouds is moving across western/central Iowa right now. We got to -24 for 1/30, 1/31 we are at -22. 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

North of town is getting obliterated. I’d love to see totals up there. Even in the lighter returns here I’m observing blizzard conditions with high wind gusts and visibility below 1/4 SM. Easily some of the most intense stuff I’ve seen yet.

If/when that band drops it’s going to be extraordinary. I think. 

Patience. It's going to take its time, but it'll be worth it. Might be best off to grab some sleep now while you can. 

Back down to -22 in Ames. Will probably re set the record low for today - that ties it from when it was set in the morning. 

We breifly dropped to -18 but we’re up to -14 again.

Watertown has to be absolutely crushing right now. 

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. Clearly I’ve been traumatized by my DC winter experiences.

The airport just west of town has been reporting +SN on an off for a while. It's going to be a fun night. BUF's SOO put out an SPS about an hour ago discussing the band consolidation/strengthening through the evening/overnight and setting up near Watertown. 

Looks like that main LES band moved back N a bit, although still a touch south. For as many awful radar shots as I've seen for Lackawanna/West Seneca, if this primary band can actually move in they'll be fine. 

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just having a really hard time getting the Ontario stuff into town. It's snowing lightly, and it's windy, but the rates are not there to pile things up. Radar just doesn't look good.

Patience. 

My favorite type of METAR:

KBUF 302054Z 24020G34KT 0SM R23/0500V1200FT +SN BLSN

KROC managed to get to +SN last hour. BUF back down to 1/16 SM. 

Up to -12 right now, which has bumped wind chills to near -30. At least it's sunny

The original cloud streets on the west end of Erie starting to orient back to the WSW as opposed to the due W earlier. Would expect the main band to lift back north a little bit. 

You can really see the areas that are still open on the west end of Lake Erie right now that are the main sources for the initial LE clouds near/north of Kelleys Island and Put-in-Bay. It's hard to say for sure but it looks like the north end of Erie by Long Point is also almost fully open which is why we have the double band structure right now, and even 250/260ish winds could keep that secondary band in BUF for a while longer, if it can manage to hold together. 

What's the flake size been like so far around BUF/southtowns? @BuffaloWeather - You'd probably be in the best spot for dendritic growth. 

Also pretty fun seeing BUF at 0F reporting 1/8 or 1/16 SM with heavy snow. Regardless of totals this is going to be a high end event, especially if it sticks around the metro through rush hour. 

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still thinking the same for Watertown? Morning high resolution guidance still looks pretty good to me. 

Yeah, I'd think so. There still seems to be a bit of shear, especially above 800mb this morning/afternoon that may hinder development more than I originally thought, but I would venture that the band sits over Watertown several hours each day, so it won't be 24" in one shot but over the course of this afternoon/tonight/tomorrow/tomorrow night. 

I also still think the models have a bit of a south bias overall with their QPF placement, which seems to always be a common theme. I have a few friends @Phillifan22 + a couple others headed out to Adams or so by tonight, and I've been disagreeing a bit on where their best shot is to set up. 

14" just north of Tonawanda. That's impressive. 

Only managed -22/-48 in Ames. I feel a little left out not getting to -50. 

Euro was a few degrees too cold here overnight, wonder how it will handle the radiational cooling overnight tonight with its current forecast of -27. 

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

2" per hour here. Already 3-4" this morning. 

Only 24" more for my forecast to be right