AppsRunner

Still in the “I don’t know” section, but I feel decent about picking up 3” or so. Still a county away from blizzard warnings

Wait and see mode here. Any small trend could mean 0” or 6-10” here so we’ll just have to hope for something fun 

Models today have trended weaker/slower/southeast. Doesn’t look to be the huge blizzard potential anymore and slightly lower totals. Still interested in what happens here

Haven’t looked at too many soundings but the 3kNAM does have a MAUL in the trowal and some ridiculous rates.

Some of the model output seems very unrealistic. The NAM and even the Euro/GFS are forecasting nearly impossible rates. The Euro has 1” of QPF falling in 6 hours, and the NAM more. Even the GFS/FV3 have high QPF amounts in that band. It’s going to be absolutely fascinating to watch unfold. I might end up taking a drive out if its within a couple counties.  

A lot of people are going to get nothing from this storm other than wind. One or two people on this sub are going to get a blizzard. Do you feel lucky? 

Yeah so I'm going to go ahead and say that Ames is not going to see 17.3" of snow in 6 hours (and it's still snowing). But I can dream, right? 

Most of the models point to someone between Sioux Falls and Davenport having a lot of fun in a blizzard, but it's likely to be an extremely narrow corridor. 

The NAM is a fun model. 

We've been in light snow for a while now this morning, and have managed to make it to 4". 

Pitiful storm here. Roughly 3”. 

Like always, a last second unfavorable shift. Like always, hi res guidance was abysmal. 

Have about an inch with the initial band that slid north across Iowa earlier. Radar has filled in pretty well in the last hour. Nothing too heavy but still accumulating right now. 

Just gonna guess 6” and call it a day. Models aren’t handling the low level dry air well from run to run. 

10 hours ago, OHweather said:

I think a swath of moderate snow (3-6”) is likely across a good portion of central and southern Ohio...

All signs point to a boatload of QPF with outstanding upper level divergence, high PWATs advecting in, very strong low to mid level warm air advection and isentropic lift, and strong frontogensis.  

Question mark is obviously ptype.  With plenty of room to wet bulb cool as the precip arrives and what should be very strong lift, think it’s likely most areas north of the Ohio River flip to a few hours of snow...though it may initially start as sleet and surface temps won’t be that cold.  Strong lift will slow the advance of the mixing for a time, though with how strong the WAA is it will eventually overwhelm, so it may be hard for anyone to see more than 4-6 hours of all snow.  

Given the sensitivity to temps and rates here, hard to be very confident in big snows for a large area.  I think there’s enough juice for warning criteria somewhere but it may be the exception rather than the rule.  The low and mid levels aren’t that cold so it will be a wet snow.  I’d like to see model soundings show a better “cross hair signature” (lift in the snow growth zone) for better confidence in 6”+ snow.  Right now the idea of a few hours of moderate to heavy QPF as snow but with questionable ratios limits how aggressive I can go to 3-6”, but it could be an exciting 3-6” and there is some boom potential.  My guess is the jackpot may be central and east central Ohio. 

Either way it’s tricky and though I’m fairly optimistic for someone to get a decent thump, trends during the day Tuesday leading up will make or break it. 

11

How's this one?

Obviously very marginal thermals below 850, but I'd favor a zone of 3-6" wherever they can hold on to snow long enough. The NAM is obviously overdone, but something like the 3km NAM doesn't seem too far fetched. 

Warnings for 5-9”. Trends overnight we’re pretty good. Going to be some really intense snow sometime during the morning. 

Watch for 5-8”. Thinking closer to 6” unless we manage good ratios. Not looking forward to the commute Wednesday. 

We picked up about an inch or so last night with some remnant moisture. Total in Ames close to 9.5", DSM 9.5". DMX office was the overall winner in the area with 10.5". 

No matter where it tracks, it seems like this is going to be a big one somewhere. The GFS seems to be on the west end of guidance, and the Canadian on the east. Should be an interesting one to track, but I wouldn't get invested until we're much closer. 

Remarkable turnaround in the last month or so:

Looks like the storm total here is somewhere between 8-8.5". More than doubles the previous season-high. 

Looks like another good event for Iowa. Kinda similar today with a heavy burst for a few hours. 

Havent looked too far in depth but the NAM soundings were even better than today with a deeper DGZ and better lift throughout. 

DMX already going with 4-6” 

Woke up to very large dendrites falling. Someone at ISU measured 6” about an hour ago. Think we’ll probably pick up at least another inch based off radar. 

Snow should be starting here fairly soon. DSM down to 1/2 mile. Things still look good here for 4-8”. Hopefully I can reach 6” 

I'll set the over/under for 6.0" here. It's not going to be overly impressive snow growth but the DGZ is pretty deep for the first 12 hours with modest lift throughout. Based on how "fluffy" the last event was, I'd expect something fairly similar again (but with more QPF). 

Hard to see how this goes poorly here. P&C up to 5-9” 

7 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Once again, an advisory for the Eastern Lake Ontario Region, what does that mean exactly? I wont see a 1/2" from whatever comes through tonight so why are we under a WWA, seriously though, what's the reason this time KBUF?

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Because BUF issues for the entire county, which includes 8NNW Redfield. Don't blame the folks at BUF

Looks pretty good out here for now. Won't be a huge storm by any means but hoping to eclipse the 4" mark this time.