jayyy

10-13 degree temp drops being reported all over WV and W VA over the past 90-120 mins. It’s almost game time.

Baltimore will definitely struggle more than say my area to changeover (that’s not just a seasonal theme… it’s an always theme) but all it will take is a few hours of heavy snow to verify the advisory on grassy and colder surfaces - even downtown. Low elevations west and southwest of here have been changing over quickly. Ground reports on twitter have pretty much uniformly been that a clean rain to snow transition is occurring after temps crash rapidly. You could be right, but I don’t think Baltimore or DC struggle all that hard given the strength of the front. IMO, based on the radar, the 95 corridor will likely make up for some of the time lost to temps with heavier precip returns once things do changeover.

IMO, you just have to look west at ground truth. If places in Mississippi can go from the upper 40s to heavy snow (thunder snow reports near Jackson), dc and Baltimore certainly can as well. The radar is looking pretty good too. Should be plenty of qpf along the 95 corridor with a storm tracking right off the coast. Appear to have some gulf interaction occurring as well. We saw a similar temperature drop and changeover to snow just a few weeks ago if I’m not mistaken. My temp is down over 3 degrees in the past hour now that we’re seeing some showers pass through. 42. 10 degrees seems a long way away, but it’s snowing less than 80 miles from my house and temps are crashing like a rock not far behind the leaning edge of the precip.

There’s no indication that’s the case on the ground. It’s snowing in extreme western Maryland WV WVA into SWPA, as it was supposed to be at this hour. Changeover with heavy snow wasn’t expected until 8am or so in Baltimore proper with the worst of it being from 8 to noon. Not sure anything’s changed in the regard

Doesn’t count unless it’s perfectly predicted by NWS or your favorite model first!

Sweet. A 3-6” warning instead of a 3-5” advisory! Must mean…. well… nothing.

Definitely a step back for the metros on the latest HRRR as far as precip totals after the changeover is concerned versus yesterdays runs. Not a huge difference up here in far N&W areas, but it’s a fairly sizable difference in Baltimore / DC from the naked eye. 00z HRDPS was similar to its previous runs. Gets the cold in there a bit faster than the HRRR and heavier returns hang back to allow some hours of very heavy snow around 14-17z with 5+“ totals near dc / bal proper …. We’re so close. We’ve got this.

The cold is there, @Ji

Can’t help but Iove that DC and Baltimore will likely fair better than NYC and Boston with this storm. In march nonetheless.

Latest HRDPS has almost all of us getting mauled between 14-17z

I approve. And euro is almost always drier than mesos right before game time. A blend of the euro NAM HRRR will do just fine

If 5-6” is drier, count me in.

Lmao right? Literally just happened.

It’s snowing in Pittsburgh and WV. Clearly not far away

Don’t think so. Why would they?

10” !? Uh. Yes please

Tornado watches on the southern flank, snow stretching from buffalo to Mississippi, and strong convection popping up off the coast in Virginia. Fuggin Smarch storms, baby!

Add it to the list of models printing 6” IMBY. Not sure I’ve ever seen so many models agree on me seeing WSW criteria while I have an advisory up. Oh well. It’s a good thing being under an advisory vs WSW vs blizzard warning means absolutely nothing as it pertains to the final outcome.

Definitely In line with ground truth and current OBS. Folks on Facebook and twitter down south are pretty much indicating a clean and quick transition over to heavy snow from rain. (Thunder snow reports as well) To me, likely means models like the NAM were overdoing the sleet aspect of this storm.

0z HRW WRF 2 (I know, not a great model blah blah) with roughly 6-8 hours of accumulating snow after the changeover depending on location. It and the HRRR have been extremely consistent all day

It was a watch until an hour ago

Wonder what occurred just over 6 years ago!

Here we go Here we go, what? The hi res FV3 uses the old GFS. Who cares if it stepped back a bit. It’s not a trend setter lol

Ground truth looks great so far. Evolution happening as expected. Perhaps a tad more robust than I expected at this juncture

Euro GFS NAM RAP HRRR HRDPS blend here is north of 6”. Sold. Go ahead. Keep my advisory up, LWX. We oddly (and obviously 100% coincidentally) tend to overperform when we have advisories hoisted during marginal events more often than we meet warning criteria during marginal events. I’ll take the advisory knowing we’ll likely exceed the upper end and could be upgraded mid storm. There’s something awesome about having your advisory upgraded mid storm with heavy paste falling