jayyy

NAM trio, RGEM, and FV3 all have 850s quite cold leading in on Sunday. NAM trying to spin up a low along the gulf coast at the end of the run with a HP over the Rockies. . Come on euro… do the damn thang!

GEFS will cave. .

Wave 2, part 2 Secondary takes over, intensifies into a 984 low along the NE coast. Too late for our area for the goods verbatim, but the NW crew does see some snow. Wave 2 is 7-8 days away however, so things will shift a ton between now and then. Never a good idea to worry too much about surface details from this far out. Could just as easily see the primary track further east and therefore see the secondary pop further east. Expecting a bunch of waffling over the next week, especially once wave 1 comes and goes and models begin to pick up on it’s impact on wave 2. Really hoping we see wave 1 lay the groundwork for wave 2 with it being only 2 days prior. Need that sucker to drag the boundary south [emoji1696]

Wave 2…. Part 1 Primary tracks into the OV with secondary beginning to take shape .

Wave 1 CMC .

00z CMC = close but no cigar for wave 1 with a low that tracks directly over Baltimore to NYC (slightly inland) Wave 2 is a Miller b - primary tracks to Ohio as a secondary low forms over the Carolina’s. Phasing happens too late and is an interior NE special Plenty of time for both to adjust a bunch of times, but that’s the verbatim outcome on tonight’s run. .

Come onnnn 00z Euro. Give us the goods .

That death-band over my parents house just outside NYC is insane on that run. .

Isn’t there a panic room thread? Jesus Ji. Get it together. .

228 OP surface depiction… what could go wrong .

Think we’ve got a shot from my area over to yours to see some decent snow with this Sunday storm. Yes, it’s the NAM at range, but I’m zeroing in on the look at 48-60 hours, which is well within NAMs wheelhouse. I like what I see so far. Hope to see the trend continue. .

See you all at 0z for @stormtracker ’s PBP .

The GFS has been Good For Shit this winter. NAM and ICON had a setup closer to the Euro / Ukmet for wave 1. Let me see that 00z Euro & Ukie tonight. If they look like the GFS, I’ll lower my already small expectation for wave 1. If the euro looks good, we live to fight another day on the initial wave One thing we know for sure is that the evolution of wave 2 will be pretty dependent on how wave 1 unfolds. Not interested whatsoever in the current surface depictions of wave 2 at this juncture. Models haven’t yet honed in on what wave 1 will do. Zero shot I give any credence to what they show for wave 2. Euro / Ukie are really the only major OP models with any semblance of credibility that are in their prime range for wave 1. And while the NAM at 84 and beyond is WAY outside of its wheelhouse, it may be catching on to the first 48-60 hours most accurately, which arguably looked best of any model for our area at 500mb. I’m curious to see how it looks at 00z tonight. If it shows a similar first 60 or so hours, perhaps it’s onto something.

The mere existence of a SER isn’t a game ender. If it’s squashed, we can still fair okay. Ya deb. .

Or a 384 OP GFS run .

Christmas 2015 - 80 degrees January 2016 - 4 feet of snow! We need some more amnesia in these parts! [emoji6] .

Bingo. Mid to late December isn’t the dead of winter or prime climo season. February is our snowiest month, incase anyone forgot. .

He’s somehow extrapolating surface temps from 500mb charts, which is as noob of a move as it gets. .

Yeah, I’ve heard of “atmospheric memory”, but when the setups are entirely different at 500mb, there’s no “memory” to tap from. I’ve experienced 60 and rain to 25-30F and snow within days of each other numerous times in my life. Ive seen rain in January and snow in April. If atmospheric memory is legit, how did that happen? Did the atmosphere develop temporary amnesia? If atmospheric memory was legit, we’d see one weather type or pattern all season long. It’s pretty much nonsense, as any reasonable analysis of our weather over the years would tell you. How many times have you seen drastic weather changes within days of each other living in this area? How can you possibly say atmospheric memory is a thing.

It would probably do your weather driven mood swings some good to keep your focuses on 1 wave at a time Ji. Excited to depressed to posting 384hr digital blue for comfort [emoji23] .

Desperate times call for extrapolation. .

Because how December turned out has any bearing on how late January will turn out? Not saying it will come to fruition, but December is irrelevant as to whether or not it does. If that were the case we’d exclusively see either see wall to wall snowfest winters or 0” winters. Both of which rarely occur historically.

2 of the 3 waves in question are within 7 days, but who’s counting? [emoji23] I understand his skepticism though. My brother lives right by him and they’ve gotten shafted pretty hard over the past several years. Bomb cyclones missing to the east, a 50” winter 25-30 miles to their north in 2020… it’s been a rough stretch for those parts. Their time will come, but it’s no surprise that people living in that area are extremely skeptical. OSU will also be the first one to act like a little school boy on their first snow day once something pans out lmao .

00z tonight (euro, ukie, and to a small extend the GFS - mainly as a means of comparison) will be pretty telling as far as where things are possibly headed for wave 1. I’m typically blending the Euro and UKMET at this range, analyzing the 500mb setup and the storm’s general evolution. Less worried about verbatim temp profiles and snow output on individual OP runs or ensemble means. The 500mb/h5 evolution will tell us everything we need to know about how this 1st wave will turn out from a snow perspective. If it’s a continued improvement and move toward a coastal solution due to delayed NS interaction, we’re still in the game. Especially in NW areas. If it bounces back toward phasing the NS early, then meh. The air mass is just SO marginal leading in that we really cannot afford any phasing to occur to our west. The only way this works out to be a legit snowstorm for most of the subforum is if it phases south of our area - a needle that’s going to be hard to thread. If there’s no phase at all, a dominant southern stream driven feature could yield a good track, but it’s likely primarily rain for anyone within 40 miles of 95 due to a lack of cold air to tap in to. This is why having snowpack to our N/NW is so crucial. Lack thereof makes marginal that much harder. The trend over the past 60-72 hours has been undeniable, but sometimes we get a move back the other way as we approach D5 (medium range) as models tighten the envelop. The wide array of outcomes among individual members means this thing is nowhere near locked in. That isn’t necessarily a good or bad thing at this juncture, but it’s why I’m not getting overly excited at the Euro printing a foot plus between now and the 26th IMBY. There’s still a ton of unknowns. Same goes for ensembles when it comes to looking at the overall pattern from the 23rd on. Day 5 has been where the various desired pattern changes we’ve been hunting have started to unravel - mainly because they’ve underestimated the SER. If the GEFS GEPS and EPS hold strong with their positive trends over the next 48 hours, I’ll start to get legitimately excited for the 7-10 day window starting around 1/23. We could REALLY use a -NAO to keep things locked in and to throw a wrench in the progressive regime that keeps ruining our setups. Would go a long way towards giving us a legit coastal threat late next week into early Feb (the Canadian ensemble was right on queue showing a near perfect -NAO [emoji23])

Ensemble mean* and the first threat is in the D5 window, Señor Deb. Really hope you get some snow soon man. You need it. .