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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    Agreed. Have a feeling nyc ends up with 20” by the time this takes shape. As somebody who grew up in the NW suburbs of NYC, this type of setup is RIPE for a costal New England bomb now that we see the confluence likely won’t be overbearing and suppress the storm. The question is... does it get going early / south enough for the mid Atlantic to get in on the coastal too? 12z euro / CMC blend is exactly what we need to see for this to come together around these parts. Here’s to hoping!
  2. jayyy
    Helluva PZF Sunday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  3. jayyy
    12+” area wide DC to Baltimore the CMC shows would be a fantastic storm in a Nina. Woof. EPS/Euro/CMC/Ukie and early looks of the NAM say game on - think it’s time we start to get a bit excited.
  4. jayyy
    You’re a goddamn weather encyclopedia. Love it man.
  5. jayyy
    Thanks for all you do mate. Excited to hear your insight after you analyze tonight’s 0z models
  6. jayyy
    Feeling pretty good right now about my general location for this one. Central MD into NoVA in general looks prime here. Far enough north for solid temps, far enough SSE to get in on solid QPF. I’d be worried if I lived NNW of the MD/ PA border about a crazy cutoff for sure.
  7. jayyy
    If the euro didn’t show 30-40”, we’d be ecstatic to see most models showing a solid storm 120 hours out. A bit of a shift in the ridge out west, or the confluence to our NE, or a slight change in how strung out the look is at h5 is the difference between 5” and 12+ area wide. Certainly not a time to be panicking.
  8. jayyy
    The problem is everybody is so snow hungry from the past 2 winters that they are fiending for snowmaggedon. when you’re not hitting the ball, sometimes you need to bunt to get on base. I would be ecstatic to see an easy 4-8” over some complex mess that ends up giving Binghamton another 30”
  9. jayyy
    What? This is a 12+ run for much of VA and a mere 20-30 mile jog north gets DC-BAL along i95 in on it too. Why does everybody need to see 12-24+ ? Lmao. Can we just settle for a damn warning event at this point?
  10. jayyy
    We have time for those details to iron out. This run certainly exposes everything that can go wrong with this one though. PSU analyzed this storm into his worst nightmare.
  11. jayyy
    Warning snows for south-central MD, DC, on south to NVA on this run. NEVA into coastal MD gets pummeled. PSU ain’t gonna be happy with this one.
  12. jayyy
    It can be 20-25 degrees and be pouring sleet. Trust me. As somebody who grew up in the mix zone NW of NYC, it happens enough. Saw a nasty sleet storm up there in the early 2000s and it never got above 30
  13. jayyy
    The spirit that is.
  14. jayyy
    Is it out yet?
  15. jayyy
    The big dog isn’t coming until the blocking eases. I agree. Let’s get a few 3-6” events before the biggie in mid February
  16. jayyy
    Yet pretty much the only model with any credibility 120+ out.
  17. jayyy
    Still think a small 1-4” type event is on the table late sun into Mon morning as the proverbial appetizer for next weeks mid week threat. Would be sweet to have some snow cover to help out heading into the larger threat if it ends up being a marginal event
  18. jayyy
    I was joking earlier, but the fact that we’re talking next Wednesday now and not Monday just confirms the insanity that is the 20-21 winter. One thing is for sure... we’re going to get smacked when this blocking pattern finally relaxes. A lot of our biggies have come on the tail ends of patterns like this. That being said, it’d be nice to squeeze a few 3+“ events out of this pattern before that happens
  19. jayyy
    Temps dropped about 4-5 degrees once the heavy stuff came through.
  20. jayyy
    Dark sky has a lull and then another batch of snow from 1-4 am
  21. jayyy
    My brother says it’s a wonderland out in the ellicott city / Columbia area
  22. jayyy
    Heaviest precipitation is sliding due East south of us in VA. Lmao. Gotta love it. Is it Sunday yet
  23. jayyy
    Beautiful out there. Moderate snow
  24. jayyy
    Sleet mixed with snow 33 degrees
  25. jayyy
    This winter is like an endless bio pic about Jennifer Anniston and Brad Pitt’s love life. Endless delays to inevitable heartbreak. Unreal how many big threats have fallen apart this winter so far. Sunday’s setup is much nicer than Thursday’s - until Thursday comes and we’ll be talking about Sunday’s threat slowly disappearing and a threat for next Wednesday emerging - LOL. IM TIRED OF TRACKING YALL.
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