jayyy

The euro did pretty damn well with this past storm from 8 days out. Some folks firmly believe a few clown maps of 20-40” from various runs 7+ days out not verifying means the mode busted - that couldn’t be further from the truth. That’s not how analytics work when you’re trying to figure out the reliability of a model. It nailed many aspects of this storm, and the track of both the primary and the secondary coastal low. The fact that it missed some of the aspects regarding h5/h7 and where the best moisture feed would be, but nailed the rest (cold, confluence, storm track) is pretty damn impressive. NWS and Mets don’t use a singular model to make a forecast for a reason: because no model will nail every aspect of a storm. We shouldn’t expect that from any model either as snow enthusiasts As far as next weekend is concerned, the GFS is showing its typical SE bias given the setup at 500mb and strong confluence to the north. If EPS/Euro/Ukie/Canadian are consistent with the overall potential, as we are seeing on the euro today, but are simply shifting solutions by 50-100-150 miles either way this far out - that’s perfectly fine. The GFS being suppressed and the euro showing the potential is exactly where we want to be right now. If by Thursday the GFS still shows nothing, then we can begin to worry about a miss. The upcoming pattern is absolutely ripe for Miller A’s and overrunning type events. Let’s get it!!!

What a weird, weird storm. However, 3 straight days of cold and wintry weather is stellar in my book. Looks incredible up here in the woods. Couple notes: My brother in west Ellicott city said he woke up 2” of the white stuff, super fluff. Still snow showers out that way This makes 2 double digit snowfalls in Carroll county by February 2nd in a Nina winter - ain’t too shabby. I know some folks didn’t cash in this time, but Sunday and beyond look primes for storm chances with region wide rippage.

Well... this was a crazy surprise to wake up to. Wow!

There’s going to a nice mini jack in DE south of Dover. they’ve been under those bands off the Atlantic all day long

Really nice looking band over Rockville / Gaithersburg. Also a band popping over HoCo and Carroll County. Snowing nicely again here

Wrong thread chief.

Drooling over this.

You guys peep the 0z NAM? 1) Additional accumulations in New York are absurd - 2) it shows 1-3” north of bmore

Former resident of Rockland county NY and used to post in this forum back when. Just wanted to peep in and see how you guys are doing! my folks have over 30” in western Rockland county. Wild storm! Congrats you guys... Those those of you wondering about DC, they did OK. Much better north of Baltimore (10” IMBY in Union Bridge Md) my son in Emmitsburg MD received 16”, and there was a report of 20” at the MD/PA border north of Hagerstown. Very Good by Miller B standards down here

Agreed. Double digits twice (10” both times) by feb 1st is solid. By the look of the EPS/GFS, we could surpass climo by Valentine’s Day

BTW, pretty sure MJO goes phase 8 at this same time.

16” at the mount. Heard of a 21” report along the PA MD border near Hagerstown

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi Updated totals @DCTeacherman 30+ already in NNJ into the typical snow belt west of NY. My god.

Happy as a goddamn clam.

Curious to see how the upper level energy feature pans out overnight.

Check the pic above your post. Sent from suffern in Rockland county. They have 2 feet

Just wanted to show you guys my buddy’s parking lot in Suffern, NY

Incoming baltimore, Baltimore county and Howard county. Nice little burst it appears coming through in the next 30

Couldn’t agree more. Latitude played a big role for us along the northern tier. Gotta give a few models credit for sticking with their guns regarding these bands making their way into the northern portion of the area.

In central MD, for sure. That’s why they dropped the Warning for a 1” advisory (except for the northern tier) That’s MD climo during a Miller b - especially one that doesn’t phase early. A difference of 30 miles means 10” versus 3-4”. Hell, less than 30 miles meant 20” for my son, with half of that here. No worries my friend. Miller A’s are down the pipeline - and the i-95 / I-29 corridor will get its jackpot storm.

For the second threat mid-next week, for sure . The first potential threat next weekend isn’t so cut and dry. It’ll be in the low to mid 40 Thursday through Saturday. Huge cold shot comes overnight Sunday. Forecasted overnight low is 5 degrees in Baltimore city with a high of 19 on Monday. Let’s gets some classic Gulf of Mexico overrunning thrown up here next week and were in business. That snow where .5 of QPF gets you 10”. Mmmm, yes please.

Trend has been in our favor the last 24-48 as far as overall setup in concerned. Let’s see how things evolve once tonight’s biggie is out of the way. 500mb setup indicates we have a pretty decent shot at cyclogenesis off the Atlantic coast late next weekend

Prob not. Next week and beyond has a much better setup to deal with. Miller A’s baby!

It’s going to get downright filthy next weekend into early next week. Snow followed by teens for highs, single digits to 0 for lows.