RodneyS

BWI: 8.7"

DCA: 7.4"

IAD: 12.9"

RIC: 3.3"

Tiebreaker: (SBY): 2.9"

Note that this contest will lock this coming Thursday (December 1st) at 11:59 PM.  If you have not yet submitted an entry or wish to edit your existing entry, now would be a good time.  If you edit, either do so to your existing post and message me, or submit a new post.  Thanks.

2 hours ago, H2O said:

SBY

Thanks.

15 hours ago, H2O said:

BWI: 20”

DCA: 11”

IAD: 24”

RIC: 8”

TB: 6”

TB is for SBY or LYH?

Thanks for fixing -- my friend was able to sign up. 

I have a friend who just tried to sign up.  She states: "I registered for an account on American weather but I never received a confirmation email to activate my account. I tried having them resend the confirmation email but it never went through."  

Something appears to be wrong in general because the newest member is listed as Michael Butler, who signed up on September 5th -- presumably, numerous people have tried to sign up since then. Can someone look into this problem?  Thanks. 

It's time for the new and improved 8th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Well okay, it's the same as last year, with only the administrator changing. PrinceFrederickWx has done a great job of running this contest, but I think figured he would have a better chance of winning it if he focuses exclusively on his proprietary PFWX Forecast Model.  As he noted last year, everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region.
 
Please note that you are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch for the four major Mid-Atlantic airports: BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), Dulles International (IAD) and Richmond International (RIC).  Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by early to mid-April.

For the tiebreaker, please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one -- in the event of the tiebreaker, the difference at the airport you chose will be compared with the difference at the airport your opponent(s) chose. 

The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports. For example, if you forecast:

BWI: 0.0"

DCA: 0.0"

IAD: 0.0"

RIC: 10.0"

And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be:

BWI: 2.5"

DCA: 2.5"

IAD: 2.5"

RIC: 2.5"

Your absolute value departures would be:

BWI: 2.5

DCA: 2.5

IAD: 2.5

RIC: 7.5

Thus, your total departure would be 15.0.

Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order:
BWI:
DCA:
IAD:
RIC:

Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH):

The deadline for entries is Thursday, December 1, at 11:59pm. You are welcome to edit your forecast as many times as you want until the deadline. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. I think the best approach is to submit your forecast well in advance of the deadline and edit it if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st.

The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners:

2015-16: @Shadowzone

2016-17: @Stormpc

2017-18: @olafminesaw

2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc)

2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide

2020-21: @NorthArlington101

2021-22: @IUsedToHateCold

Good luck everyone!

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.3       2.3      2.2        2.5      1.8    1.9       1.4     -0.9    -2.1

October 4th peaked at 55 degrees this afternoon at both DCA and IAD, setting low maximum records for DC and Dulles. 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.9     -1.2    -0.9       0.0      -1.5    1.4        1.2     -0.1      1.5

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0       1.3       1.3        0.5    -0.6   -0.6       3.1       0.8      1.0

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.2       0.9      1.1       -0.4    -0.6     0.5       1.5      -0.6     0.7

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Does 02-03 ring a bell. 

Yes, in terms of it being the wettest February on record in DC, at 6.98 inches.  February 2003 also featured the Presidents Day II snow storm, which dropped 16.7 inches of snow at DCA during February 15-18, and a major rainfall event of 2.27 inches there on February 22nd.  

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.5       0.8      0.3       0.5     0.8     1.4         1.8      0.6      1.1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.1        1.1      -0.1      -1.9      1.4     1.4        0.6      1.4       0.0 

99       98       97        97      100    102      102      119      93

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Coldest Mother’s Day or coldest May 8th? Or maybe both?

Mother's Day.  May 8, 2006 reached only 57 at Reagan, but that was on a Monday.  Mother's Day 2006 was on May 14th and reached 63.

23 hours ago, RodneyS said:

I just posted this on the Capital Weather Gang page: 

 

I think the most interesting fact about this storm is that it produced the first consecutive days with at least an inch of precipitation at Reagan National Airport since July 2018:

 

July 21, 2018: 4.00

July 22, 2018: 1.15

 

May 6, 2022: 1.00

May 7, 2022: 1.29

The rain was followed by the coldest Mother's Day maximum at Reagan since May 14, 1967.  Both this year and 55 years ago, it was 58.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.2      -0.1     -0.5     -2.8     1.8      2.1       -0.5     1.0      -0.8     

34 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If I had known there was going to be media coverage, I’d have performed better.

If it's any consolation, you were one of the 10 contestants to outperform the Capital Weather Gang, with a total departure of 5.8 inches at DCA, IAD, and BWI vs. 6.9 for the CWG.

I posted this on the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang page, regarding the 2021-22 CWG snow forecast for DCA, IAD, and BWI: "Very respectable snow forecast. On American Weather Forums, the winner for the smallest departure from the actual snow that fell at the three area airports plus Richmond International was 4.6 inches.  Excluding Richmond, the winner's total departure for DCA, IAD, and BWI was 3.3 inches vs a total departure of 6.9 inches for the CWG's midpoint forecast at those three airports. Overall, the CWG forecast would have placed 11th out of 59 entries, if Richmond were not included."

On 4/14/2022 at 3:45 PM, GramaxRefugee said:

IAD lists a Trace on May 26, 2002 . (seen at 2 different listings. Don't know if I believe it though)

They also list Traces of snow in June 2015 and 2016, but by the temps listed, I suspect that's from hail or semi-hail. Gotta wonder about some of these obs.

eta: Well, BWI lists a Trace on May 31, 2017.    https://www.weather.gov/lwx/bwinme

eta: OK, since we've started this....DCA lists a Trace on May 16, 1988...

I'm pretty sure that what you list are all hail reports.  For some reason, hail seems to have been reported in some years, but not others.  Consider that on July 1, 1990, the official Reagan National Airport report is:

          High       Low   Prcp     Snow

22 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

That's good to know. Just out of interest, what are the latest measurable snowfall dates for the four airports? I think it would be last week of April for NYC and middle of May for Toronto so I am guessing maybe around now to 20th? Also last traces would be interesting to know. Those are about 2-3 weeks later for the places for which I have stats -- there was a trace of snow in Toronto last May 29th and the absolute latest is June 3rd. NYC is May 9th (2020 tied 1977). 

I don't have all the numbers handy, but for Washington DC, according to https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_DC-Winters: Latest Snowfall = Trace on May 10, 1906; .5 inches on Apr. 28, 1898

6 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Congratulations to IUTHC, and thanks to PFWx for the effort, for a fun and interesting contest. 

I second the congratulations and commend PFWx for his outstanding job of running the contest for the last several years.  With the assistance of his spreadsheet, for which he has already provided me important use instructions, I will attempt to keep the contest running smoothly.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.6       0.4      1.3       -1.2     1.2     1.4         0.8      1.6    -0.4