RodneyS

16 hours ago, RodneyS said:

By the way, as good as olafminesaw has been in your contest over the years, he is on shaky ground this year because he already has negative departures at both BWI and DCA.  If during the rest of the winter, BWI were to receive an additional 0.2 inches or more, IAD were to receive an additional 3.6 inches or more, and RIC were to receive an additional 0.5 inches or more, MN Transplant would close out olafminesaw.

It appears that the National Weather Service has reduced yesterday's snowfall at DCA from 2.7 to 2.6 inches and at IAD from 4.5 to 4.0 inches.  If those revised figures hold, the current Top Three would be:  olafminesaw 7.3, Rickin Baltimore 8.8, and WxWatcher007 and MN Transplant tied at 9.8.  Unfortunately for WxWatcher007, he is still closed out by olafminesaw, but olafminesaw now has a little more of a cushion over MN Transplant.  The latter would now need BWI to receive an additional 0.2 inches or more, IAD to receive an additional 4.1 inches or more, and RIC to receive an additional 0.5 inches or more to close out olfaminesaw.  Alternatively, however, if RIC were to receive 1.6 inches more, olafminesaw would be closed out even if no more snow falls in the Washington-Baltimore area this season.  

9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

George BM has higher forecasts than any other player in all four locations. I took numbers that were just slightly higher than 2nd highest forecasts in general, and found the following: 

I started with values equal to second highest forecasts and checked each forecast that was among the top five. Those are the five who need more snow than me, and they are generally in a zone where they need quite a bit more. Anyway, at that first level, ldub (second highest totals) easily wins over the 3rd to 5th highest, he has two of those second highest numbers, another is just 1.0" over, and RIC is 4" over. So it would appear to be a straight up contest between ldub23 and GeorgeBM if more snow than ldub23's forecast materializes. Therefore the amounts GeorgeBM would need would be any combination of smaller errors, which could occur with four cases where he is 0.1" or more ahead, or various other combinations. If all the errors were equal, then he would need 32.6" more at BWI, 20.3" more at DCA, 39.2" more at IAD, and 23.5" more at RIC. 

Another way of looking at this is that if snow at each of the four locations averaged about 85% of George BM's forecasts, snow would total 44.6 inches at BWI, 28.5 inches at DCA, 47.6 inches at IAD, and 24.6 inches at RIC.  That would result in George BM's total departure being 26.0 and Idub23's total departure being 26.3. That would close out Idub23 because all of his departures would be negative, whereas all of George BM's departures would be positive.  

By the way, as good as olafminesaw has been in your contest over the years, he is on shaky ground this year because he already has negative departures at both BWI and DCA.  If during the rest of the winter, BWI were to receive an additional 0.2 inches or more, IAD were to receive an additional 3.6 inches or more, and RIC were to receive an additional 0.5 inches or more, MN Transplant would close out olafminesaw.

48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

A lot of people at the top already with negative departures and nowhere to go but down 

Very true, and according to my calculation, 12 have been eliminated.  That includes WxWatcher007, who is currently tied for second, but is closed out by olafminesaw.

Congratulations, Don, nicely done once again. 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 1.0      1.5       1.4      -0.5     1.5      2.0       -0.1     0.1      -2.1

16 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

I knew it was bad, but that is really bad.

Another interesting fact about December 2021 is that there were only 0.63 inches of precipitation at DCA -- the 6th driest December in DC history, with 1889 the driest at 0.19 inches. (1901 was the wettest December in DC at 7.56 inches).  Moreover, November and December 2021 combined totaled only 1.61 inches at DCA -- the 2nd driest November-December in DC history, with 1965 the driest November-December at 0.84 inches. (2018 was the wettest November-December in DC at 13.39 inches, and was also the wettest year overall, at 66.28 inches).  However, unlike 1965, which was the second driest year overall in DC at 26.94 inches (1930 was the driest, at 21.66), 2021 was relatively wet overall, at 44.09 inches (tied with 1912 for 47th wettest out of 151 years).

On 12/30/2015 at 11:55 AM, Ian said:

This month yo

 

December 2021 at DCA could not match December 2015's average of 51.2 degrees, but it was the second warmest December in DC history at 47.6 degrees -- 3.6 degrees cooler, but 2.0 degree warmer than the December record holders prior to 2015, which were December 1889 and 1984 (45.6).  That also makes December 2021 the fourth warmest meteorological winter month in DC history, behind only December 2015, January 1950 (48.0), and February 2017 (47.7).

BWI: 12.2"
DCA: 12.8"
IAD:  17.8"
RIC: 6.0"

Tiebreaker SBY: 5.2"

2 minutes ago, Guest RodneyS said:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.4    -0.5     0.1        -0.4   -1.6     -0.6       0.8      1.0     0.6        

Whoops, I forgot to sign in. 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 2.2      3.1      2.8        3.1      1.6     1.1         1.4    -0.4    -0.4

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.0     -0.1      1.3        0.6      0.1     0.6      1.3     -0.9     0.6 

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Some models did show it being a significant threat 

And the NHC seemed to tilt heavily toward those models, even though they seemed implausible to most experienced forecasters.  I think what NHC did was unwise, as mistakes of this type can cause the general public to be skeptical of future projections that may legitimately forecast a scary scenario requiring an evacuation.

On 8/21/2021 at 12:56 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

FL winds indicated hurricane even though SFMR observations were quite low. They averaged the two. I have to agree though, I seriously doubt this is producing surface winds even near hurricane force with the lack of convection. This will be a 45-50 kt storm at landfall. It’s over water as warm as it will get and does not have time to organize a core. There is no jet stream energy to tap into (like some higher latitude systems like Isaias) so this will be a decaying TS at landfall 

You may want to volunteer to assist the National Hurricane Center.  At 5 PM on Saturday (4 hours after you posted), the NHC "Wind Probs" were vastly inflated for just about every location.  For example, they showed a 99% probability that Providence, RI would experience sustained tropical force winds over the weekend.  The reality:  The highest sustained wind at TF Green Providence International Airport was only 35 mph.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.4    -0.1      0.9     1.7     -0.5    -0.7    0.4     -0.8      1.2

Today has an interesting distinction, with a high of 59 at DCA, which was recorded at 12:33 AM.  Officially, that is the second lowest DC maximum ever for May 29th, with May 29, 1893 being the record-holder at 58 degrees.  However, that record is likely the result of the temperature not being observed when the day dawned, because the official DC temperature range for May 28, 1893 is 60-69 degrees. If that is correct, which I think is likely, May 29th, 1893 had to begin with a temperature of at least 60 degrees.  So today's high of 59 is likely the new unofficial record-holder for lowest DC maximum on May 29th. 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.4       0.6      0.4       -0.1      0.8     0.7        -0.2     0.2      0.1

The photo is gloomy, but last year's maximums were colder in Northern Virginia at this time of year.  The average maximum at DCA during April 14-23, 2020 was 60.2, vs 64.7 this year. Moreover, there is a major warm-up coming this year.  Last year, maximums at DCA during April 14-May 13 averaged only 63.6 -- the coldest DC average for those 30 days since 1882.  Last year's DCA maximum on May 9th was 52 -- a record-tying low for that day.

On 1/13/2021 at 10:29 PM, RodneyS said:

The 5-year minimum DC snow total was set during the 1997-98 through 2001-02 snow seasons at 37.7 inches.  The last four snow seasons at DCA have totaled 28.7 inches, and so 8.9 inches or fewer this season would break that record.  The minimum two-season DC snow total was set during the 2011-12 through 2012-13 snow seasons at 5.1 inches.  So, with last season's 0.6 inch total at DCA, 4.4 inches this season would break that record. 

So, with this year's 5.4 inches at DCA, we broke the 5-year minimum DC snow total by 3.6 inches, as the last five snow seasons at DCA have totaled just 34.1 inches, vs 37.7 during 1997-2002. However, we exceeded the 2-year minimum DC snow total by 0.9 inches, as the last two snow seasons at DCA have totaled 6.0 inches, vs 5.1 during 2011-2013.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.5     -0.2      0.0       1.6      0.3     0.6          3.7     1.1     -1.6

22 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I can assure you that contest integrity is our highest priority- I am sending @RodneyS to hand recount every flake that has fallen at DCA. 

My designated snow counters -- Vladimir Putin and Nicolas Maduro -- have informed me that a totally objective hand count reveals that the true amount that fell at DCA was 4.4 inches.  By an amazing coincidence, that's exactly what I forecast!  I have instructed Vlad and Nick to now do a similar hand count at the other three airports . . . I do note, however, that should my effort to steal win the contest fall short, NorthArlington101 has to watch his back at IAD.  Should an additional 1.5 inches fall there, Cobalt would eliminate him.  

On 2/21/2021 at 2:38 PM, RodneyS said:

DCA is the champion of high minimums year-round.  However, it's interesting to note that both DCA and IAD have added four degrees in the last decade to their respective high winter minimums.  Coming into 2012, DCA's record high winter minimum was 18 degrees and IAD's was 11.  Now, DCA's is 22 and IAD's is 15, with each quite possibly breaking those records by another degree this season.   

I think it's now fair to say that both DCA and IAD have broken their high winter minimum temperature records set just last winter.  DCA's record high winter minimum temperature is now 23 degrees, and IAD's is now 16.  However, I discovered that way back in the winter of 1952-53, and more recently in the winter of 2001-02, the DCA minimum was 19.  So, that 19-degree record DCA (and DC, back to 1872) high winter minimum stood until last winter, when it was broken by three degrees. This winter, that record high minimum was broken by another degree, as was also true at IAD.