RodneyS

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.2     0.0     -1.0      -1.5     3.1     1.1       -2.1     0.0    2.7 

99      98       96         95      99    101        98      116     92

Congratulations to Olaf for his razor-thin victory over Stormpc, and many thanks to PFDKWx and Roger for doing the heavy lifting.  As of late February, this contest could have gone a dozen different ways, as many pre-season forecasts were for a snowy March. However, the Snow Gods had other ideas, as they usually do.  

On 4/8/2019 at 11:33 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It’s basically down now to the 0.1” at RIC to see if Stormpc can pull off an upset win- since that’s happened several times at RIC in mid/late April I’ll keep this open for about another 2-3 weeks. 

Yep, the Fat Lady has sung for all contestants except Stormpc, and even for him, she's warming up in the bullpen.  However, since this is the Mid-Atlantic -- i.e. Nats' -- bullpen, it's not quite over, even with an 10-run lead in the 9th inning. 

On 2/24/2019 at 9:45 PM, tplbge said:

IAD 2.5

DCA 0.4

BWI 1.9

RIC 0.0

MBY 2.2

This appears to be the winner, with the following departures:  IAD 0.9, DCA 0.1, BWI 0.8, and RIC 0.0; for a total departure of only 1.8".

17 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Looks like they upped BWI's total by 0.1" to 18.3" for the season. This doesn't really change anything but here's the updated list. I guess it's a slight help to @RodneyS in a Hail Mary pass 

I'm sure that Stormpc is hoping that another 0.1" can be found for RIC.  In my case, I now need at least 1.8" at BWI, which has never happened there this late in the season.  However, prior to BWI, there were a few Baltimore snowstorms during April 3-11 that exceeded that total.  The big one was a mere 125 years ago -- April 10-11, 1894, when a two-day storm produced five inches.  

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.9      1.9     2.0       0.9     1.7     0.7       1.1     1.8     1.5 

6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The main thing to keep an eye on is 0.1" at DCA gives Olaf an outright win, and 0.1" at RIC puts Stormpc back in the lead. Not hard to do 0.1" overnight in April, so both of them will be in the game a long time.

The other "recent" April event would be 1990 at IAD- if something like that were to occur, Bob Chill or WinterWxLuvr would win.

And I can still win with the first 1.9" or better April snow event in Baltimore since 1924, provided that IAD gets no more than 1.9".  

On 3/8/2019 at 10:04 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Another 0.2" at BWI and 1.0" at IAD so far. Here's the updated top ten.

I need to get rid of RIC for next year's contest- I would've won last year had it only been DCA/IAD/BWI and I'm gonna bet it happens again this year!

@WinterWxLuvr may be a dark horse here if we ever get one more semi-decent event though.

A faint ray of hope for Stormpc:  The last weak El Nino winter before this one was 2006-07.  That season an inch of snow fell at RIC on April 7, 2007.  On that same day, DCA received 0.4", and IAD and BWI each received 0.2".  So, that combination, or merely 0.1" at RIC with no measurable snow at DCA, would do it for him.  For the rest of us, we need a miracle!

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Also Stormpc would overtake me with any amount at DCA

23 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m not sure what you mean- right now, any amount at DCA (at least up to 0.4”) would give you an outright lead. Stormpc would overtake you with any amount at RIC though.

Also, if there are 0.4 inches or more at DCA, Stormpc could still take the lead with 1.7-1.8 inches at BWI.  But if BWI reaches 1.9 inches, he's out, unless there is more snow at RIC.  So for Stormpc's best chance of winning, he does not want any more snow at DCA and little at BWI, which raises an interesting point about yesterday's snow at DCA.  It was officially a trace, but I'm thinking it could have easily been 0.1 inches, depending on the measurement technique.  According to https://www.weather.gov/gsp/snow --

 Snow often melts as it lands. If snow continually melts as it lands, and the accumulation never reaches 0.1 inches on your measuring surface, snowfall should be recorded as a trace (T) and record in your remarks that the "snow melted as it landed."

So, evidently the snow never reached 0.1 inches at DCA because it "melted as it landed."

19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It seems historically I am more likely than not to hold on for the win, but my margin for error is narrow.

Odds of at least .1" of snow in the second half of March/April (past 30 years):

DCA (April): 23% (6.6%)

IAD: 51% (13%)

BWI: 43% (10%)

RIC: 23% (10%)

Odds of at least 1" of snowfall

DCA: 13%

IAD: 40%

BWI: 20%

RIC: 10% 

It appears the key thing for you is to have IAD come in under 2.5 inches for the rest of the snow season.  If it receives that much or more, Bob Chill would catch you.  In my case, I need IAD to come in under two inches, with BWI picking up at least 1.9 inches.

3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Here's what the SBY forecast looks like for the top four- Stormpc and Weather53 actually have the same forecast, although I haven't found a situation where they would both tie in the main game.

Rodney would win a tie against Weather53 should that situation I mentioned last night occur with 2.9" at BWI.

I'll settle for the 2.9" at BWI, provided that IAD and DCA get very little. (I'm assuming that Richmond is done.)  For example, 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.3" at IAD and 0.1" at DCA allows me to take the lead.  However, if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD, I'm out, and Bob Chill would take the lead, provided that DCA gets less than 0.3".  But if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD and 0.3" or more at DCA, you take the lead.  Needless to say, there are countless other far-fetched possibilities that keep most other contestants alive, such as a late March Mid-Atlantic storm similar to the March 29, 1942 (Palm Sunday that year) storm; see https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1992-03-23-1992083144-story.html

5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Is it still possible to get a podium finish?

If Sterling revises the totals enough, you can still win it.    Otherwise, it looks as if you could finish 2nd, behind Weather53 by only 0.3, if you nail BWI. 

FYI, yesterday's BWI snow total has been revised from 2.3 to 2.2 inches.  For most of us, our overall departure is now 0.1 higher, and so there is no relative change, but MN Transplant now has BWI on the nose.  See https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

See @RodneyS, BWI can jackpot over IAD! These were the thread-the-needle totals that are still keeping you in the game!

 

Today's storm was a thread-the-needle masterpiece for me.  I still need at least 2.2 inches at BWI and no more than 2.9 inches at IAD, but that's more doable than what I needed prior to today, which was at least 4.4 inches at BWI and no more than 3.5 inches at IAD. 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.8     -1.5   -1.1      -4.9    -0.7    -0.4     -4.6    -0.1    -0.8 

5 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Not sure if @RodneyS had noticed this, but for DCA, the 10.3" recorded from 1/12-14 this year would make #7 on the list of top 3-day snowfalls, per their criteria (i.e. snowfall must have occurred on all three days). This would be on the second chart, not the first one that lists top snowfalls overall.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr#TopDaySnowfall

I had not noticed that, but had noticed that overall that snowstorm tied for 23rd on the all-time DC list (with February 22-23, 1987).  Also, the 10.6 inches received at Dulles in that storm was 16th all-time there, displacing the 10.3 inches that fell at Dulles during the infamous (poorly-forecast) 10.3-inch snowstorm of January 25, 2000. 

IAD 1.0”

DCA 0.5”

BWI 1.5”

RIC 0.0”

MBY 0.9"

Since ENSO events began to be tracked during the winter of 1949-50, weak El Ninos have averaged 2.6 inches of snow at DCA during March and April, with the range being a trace on three occasions to 8.3 inches in 1978 (12 prior weak El Ninos).

7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Oh I forgot to respond to this- you're right, I was 0.1" off for what you need to win at BWI (that's what I get for doing it in my head instead of running it through the spreadsheet!)

For example, a system that drops 4.5" at BWI, 3" at IAD, 1" at DCA and nothing at RIC would make you a winner.

I think the DCA and RIC parts are plausible.  The BWI and IAD parts -- not so much, particularly regarding the greater amount of snow that has to fall at BWI in a moderate area-wide event (or events).  However, at this point in the snow season, almost everyone who is not mathematically eliminated can cling to a thin strand of hope, so that's what I'll do.   

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

You would need at least 4.5" at BWI to win outright (4.6" if you assume DCA gets snow at the same time). You actually have a bit of a cushion at IAD since most of the leaderboard has busted on it. The key for you is making sure RIC gets shut out in the process. You have an outside chance, but it's definitely not impossible.

I believe I could theoretically win with 4.4" at BWI, assuming DCA gets shut out and RIC gets no more than 0.2".  However, if BWI gets 4.4" or more, isn't it very likely that IAD will get at least 3.6"?  And if that happens, Bob Chill will close me out. So I have to thread the needle in a very unlikely manner.  As our President might tweet: SAD! 

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Here's the totals I have:

BWI: 15.6"

DCA: 16.6"

IAD: 24.9"

RIC: 13.1"

Top ten list is attached (those who have been mathematically eliminated are grayed out).  Look at that top three now- @Stormpc is in the lead, with Rodney and Olaf just 0.1" and 0.4" behind- close game!

Myself, nw baltimore wx and Bob Chill have now entered the top ten.

I think the odds are better than 50-50 that either Stormpc, olafminesaw, or Bob Chill wins. I'm in the sad position of "so near, and yet so far."

BWI: 4.1”

IAD: 3.4”

DCA: 1.3”

RIC: 0.3”

Tie: 0.85”

10 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Well, winning with ~a month of potential winter still to go isn't that impressive.  The leaderboard will look different by Wednesday evening, I'd guess.  With so many people going high, it seemed that the safer bet was closer to climo.  So, I was playing the board as much as playing the game.

13 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It’s interesting to me that @MN Transplant and @RodneyS - -the two biggest stat guys in the extreme run thread- are currently winning this. Was there anything leading into this winter that gave you both pause?

In my case, you're correct -- my snow forecasts were based significantly on historical averages for weak El Nino winters.  

Today's high temperature of 74 at DCA was 50 degrees warmer than the high of 24 recorded there just four days ago.  As best as I can tell, that 4-day warm-up of 50 degrees in the DC maximum was second only to the 52-degree 4-day warm-up in maximum temperatures that occurred from February 16, 1930 (24) to February 20, 1930 (76).

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.4     1.0      1.1       0.3     2.4     2.7      -0.3     0.3    -1.3