weatherpruf

So....a storm is progged. It looks like its waffling. At some point it hones in on a moderate event. As we get closer higher totals get thrown about. As showtime arrives, things don't go quite as planned and totals get cut back. Stop me if you have heard this before.

Thanks for posting. Seems to be tak of lesser amounts today but I don't see a real change. looks like a typical snow event to me. Someone is bound to get a little more or less. But I think around 4-5 is a good call. Someone I saw somewhere had a graphic from the midwest; storms are categorized as to how many milks, breads, or eggs you need to hoard...

Question for anyone; whenever I go to this site on my phone, I get a Tapatalk popup that I cannot get rid of, and hence cannot follow the site from a phone. Anyone who has any ideas how to rid myself of this? Showed it to my techie nephew and he was clueless.

" it will come down to nowcasting" I joked several days ago....

Have you seen the way people drive anymore? Anything is a state of emergency these days. Stopped into a Wegman's ( a store I don't like by the way; overpriced, always low stock ) and the milks shelves were bare; worse, you could see stacks of it in storage but they wouldn't put it out because it was after 9 pm.

Hah, we already know where that will be should it set up; I'd guess around northern Middlesex Co.

Probably be somewhere around Freehold.

At the time we were told 94 was a true ice storm, which are not common here, but more so in places like Oklahoma and KS; inches of ice, which I have never seen again. Usually we get a glaze and it melts off later in the day, or it starts as rain and sudden drop in temps causes ice buildup, but nothing like 94. Will be nice to see an event this Sunday/Monday. Maybe it overperforms for a few as last Feb did. We'll see.

Well if you're out at sea maybe.

We will take a normal snow event that doesn't flip to rain or get eaten up by dry air. A solid 4-6 would be good.

Got my storms mixed up. There were 3 big ones that winter in about a month. Gettin old.

I think I may have it confused with another one in Jan....we had 3 that year, and one of them ( this might be it ) delivered more toward NE. There was one where we got almost 20 in CNJ. Someone here will know. It was a snow to rain and back to heavy snow situation. Nothing happened after Jan except a wicked ice storm in Feb. And a vicious rainstorm in March.

Now by memory, it seemed like it was over by evening. Mostly because I spent several hours of daylight just following the tailights of the car in front of me, because I could not see a thing in that heavy snow.

That was almost a HECS, almost 20 inches. I don't think this is. It would be a storm for the ages if it hadn't followed Boxing Day a few weeks prior.

That was a beast, but it was a weekday and hit at the worst possible time, around 10 am when everyone was at work already, after several mild snowless winters, and in a time when the forecasting was not apocalyptic. Few people had four wheel drive or snow tires, and the SUV had not been invented yet. Minivans were this new odd thing. In short, a lot of people, like me, had rear wheel drive dinosaurs with bad traction, and the snow came in like a white wall. Offices panicked and let everyone leave by noon, creating a complete snag on the interstates. People abandoned cars on the GSP and the state police towed them away. In the end it was about a foot or less in a short period and was chaos. It would be the last significant storm in CNJ until 1993.

I think they moved out west years ago.

With this much waffling I'm going with either a mix to rain for the coast while inland does better with snow, or maybe a snowier solution for the coast, or perhaps rain and sleet reaching further inland. That's my final forecast. Highpoint NJ gets the most in NJ.

Jan 2015?

I knew I shouldn't have gotten my pack boots out of storage. This has cold rain written all over it for Middlesex Co NJ and east of the NJTPK. Seen it a hundred times. It's why I said yesterday I'd hold my horses. Anyway, I could do with a good washing away of all this interminable salt,which they are laying down already due to the dusting last night.

This is Sunday night? It's only Thursday. You guys had me for a sec....there's a lot to go wrong yet. Seen it over and over. I'd hold my horses for a day or two. Let's see what happens.

" It will come down to nowcasting." There, i saved you all the trouble of having to mention this again.

We struggled here, as we always do in those coastal type set ups. Our last good hit here was last Feb, which was a surprise. Decent storm. 10-12 inches.

We still seem to be be flirting with drought. That's a problem.

I bought a huge LL Bean down parka in the fall of 1990. I didn't need it til 94.....

I taught in Ocean county and HS started at 7;15 and the kids were dismissed at 1;20. This was because nearly all the kids were bussed. I was expected to stay until 2, but back in those days it was still ok for a teacher to leave if they had no classes to teach. Now they give you an ankle bracelet at the beginning of the day. Glad to be retired.