PrinceFrederickWx

To our valued customers- we've listened to your feedback, and due to popular demand, we are pleased to offer a new phone option:

-For trouble with your Alaskan trough placement, please press "6"

Limited time only, act now while supplies last. Thank you again for choosing AmWx, the #1 source of trusted weather analysis on the web.

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

That’s only available with the gold package.  For only 19.95 per month a hidden menu of options will be available for your panic pleasure.  Those options include: boundary level concerns, sun angle worries, retreating high pressure, inside runners and of course pig ridge woes…and so much more.  Call in the next 10 minutes and get a free Winter Cancel hoodie to show the world how you feel in any month of the year.  

Be sure to upsell the Platinum quadruple play package to customers that we’re unveiling later this year. It will include a 24/7 dedicated concierge service line for concerns over rain/snow maps at approximately 15,000 hours out.

40 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

How long is 'shortly'? Been waiting over two hours now for an answer. I'll ask again. 

I parked my '64 American Rambler 770 wagon during the snows of winter '65/'66, and now it has a terrible miss in cylinder 3. Got any ideas? 

*muzak plays*
 

Thank you for holding. All of our representatives are currently assisting other customers. There are currently… sixty-five… callers ahead of you.

Please note that we experience higher than normal call volumes during Happy Hour GFS runs, thank you!

*muzak plays again*

1 hour ago, Rhino16 said:

Which option should I dial to panic over southeast ridge troubles?

Thank you for contacting AmWx Panic Room customer service. As a southeast ridge is typically found in a La Nina, we would ask that you please select option #2, “Trouble with your El Nino performance.”

Thank you again for choosing AmWx, the #1 source of trusted weather analysis on the web.

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20 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I looked back at previous snowfall contests, first point being, this is actually the tenth one, they date back to winter 2014-15.

In winter 2013-14 there was a contest to predict how often winter storm warnings would be issued. But no snowfall contest in evidence in thread titles.

The history of contest results is interesting, in all but three winters, just about all forecasts were too high. Over nine contests, about 85% of forecasts were too high in total and probably about 75 to 80 per cent were too high for specific locations. It would be even worse except for an opposite tendency in 2015-16. I show the nine and also last seven -year average values to see how they do in 2023-24. I continue to think that this winter will be a good one, so I won't transfer those to my forecast (and I may regret it) ...

  

Winter _____ BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC _____ winner (total error) ______ notes

2022-23 ___ 0.2 __ 0.4 __ 0.4 __ 0.0 _____ Little Village Wx +13.0 __ all fcsts too high in total snow

2021-22 ___14.4 __13.2 __15.8 __ 4.7 _____ I Used to hate Cold (4.6) __ about 2/3 fcsts too high, just a few were too low

2020-21 ___10.9 __ 5.4 __ 12.0 __ 7.0 _____NorthArlington101 (3.1) __ about 3/4 fcsts too high at all locations  

2019-20 ____1.8 ___ 0.6 __ 2.9 __ 1.5 ______ Prestige Worldwide (3.6) __ all fcsts too high in total snowfall

2018-19 ___ 21.1 __16.9 __21.6 _ 13.9 _____ Olafminesaw (7.9) won tiebreaker with Stormpc also 7.9, RodneyS close at 8.2 

___________________________________________ about 3/4 of all forecasts were too high despite a fairly good outcome

2017-18 ____15.4 __ 7.8 _ 11.9 __ 12.4 _____ Olafminesaw (6.8) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow

2016-17 ____ 3.0 __ 3.4 __ 7.3 ___ 7.1 ______ stormpc (16.1) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow 

2015-16 ____35.1 __ 22.2 __ 34.3 __15.1 ____ shadowzone (7.0) ___ forecasts scattered around result but 2/3 too low

_________________________________________ almost all snow was on Jan 23: with only 0.3" at IAD before event,

_________________________________________ post-storm totals were listed as 30.0, 18.8, 29.8 (29.5 storm), 12.1

_________________________________________ so rest of winter was 5.1, 3.4, 4.5, 3.0 if storm values were not revised

2014-15 ____ 28.7 __18.3 __36.9 __12.8 ____ nwbaltimorewx (3.4) ____ forecasts scattered around result

_____________________________ _________________________________

 

averages ___ 14.5 __ 9.8 __ 15.8 __ 8.3 ____ average winning error total (6.2") _ 1.5 to 1.6 per location

past seven __ 9.5 __ 6.9 __ 10.3 __ 6.7 

===============

From above it can be seen best forecast all-time was 3.1" total error (NorthArlington101 2019-20). Nwbaltimorewx was close at 3.4" in 2014-15. 

Keywords: optimism, climatology denial, occasional surprise endings

(later edit _ irony alert noted)

I started counting from the year I started running the contest; Rodney just continued from there. I have no idea what contests were run in the years before. At the time (if I remember correctly) no one was interested in doing a snowfall contest that year, so I set it up.

I wouldn’t go so far to say it’s “climatology denial,” but I wasn’t joking when I posted earlier this month about the snow totals getting pumped up, followed by revisions downwards right before the close. I think there’s a tendency around mid-November for people to get all hyped up; they see digital snow for the first time maybe, or a perfect pattern being shown in the long range, and start to think, “maybe this is the year, finally?”

There also just seems to be a tendency in recent years for the models to give weenie solutions around Veteran’s Day, followed by a rug pull right after Thanksgiving.

I want a dollar every time I hear about "that look" and the "El NIno flex"

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

What’s the number for the national winter cancellation hotline? 

Thank you for calling the AmWx winter hotline. If this is a life-threatening emergency, please hang up and dial 911 now.

-For trouble with your guaranteed cold, please press “1”

-To verify if Mt. PSU has received its first inch, please press “2”

-To check if the long range pattern signal has degraded, please press “3”

1 hour ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

Only took about 12 hours to not age well.

The November pump-and-dump; every single year. 

A few of our sunflowers from the summer successfully seeded; they’re still growing well. Hoping we can get a few blooms out of this generation before it gets too cold. We’ve never had sunflowers last this far into the year before!

22 hours ago, stormy said:

Suppressed southeast low pressure robs the moisture from Friday night frontal.  18z  NAM12  now zero.  Only 14% of normal first half of November at .24".

Will do a study of nino winter snowfalls with less than 50% of normal precipitation.  It will be bleak.

There's really only one match I can find with a comparable El Nino of this strength with a November this dry, and that's 1965. Although 65-66 was a good winter.

The next best match would be 1991. That was definitely not a good winter lol

This was just using BWI data.

Smelling the wildfire smoke all around Calvert today… it’s a very distinct smell that I learned over the summer.

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But hang on though...didn't we have a drought in 2002? I remember looking at rainfall totals and the corresponding winters back in that rainy 2018 we had. Turns out the wettest years preceded less snowy winters, oddly enough.

That post wasn't worded well, sorry. I meant it was a bad sign for the winter that I only have 0.07" so far this month, not because it's been a dry year. I remember looking at some of the region's least snowiest years and finding a pretty good correlation to dry Novembers that preceded.

Since you mentioned 2002: the November totals for DCA and BWI were 4.34" and 3.73" respectively, both above average.

Of course we may pick up in the second half of the month; but I'm concerned.

I got a whopping total of 0.07” for that system, which is also my monthly total. This is looking like a lock now for driest year since I moved to Prince Frederick a decade ago. Not a good sign for winter IMHO

This is around the time the November pump-and-dump scam starts. Long range will start showing some weenie solution (either 1996 or 2010, depending on whatever ENSO you’re in). People start posting mega forecasts at all-time highs, or rapidly revising upwards… then the Pacific puke (or whatever) starts showing up after Thanksgiving, and Rodney will have to sift through the spreadsheet on December 1 to figure out who quietly revised back downwards. 
 

Eta: Exhibit A in post below 

42 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Agreed...the southern stream has been practically non-existent for most of the year with most of the storms riding the high latitudes.  That seems very Nina'ish, though maybe the gom will open up as the jet streams sinks farther south.

I remember in Oct. 2009 we had the back-to-back mid-October coastals, both with big rain totals and four consecutive record lowest maxes at BWI. This pattern literally reloaded in February. If I saw something like that happen this month, I might get excited for the 09-10 analogs being thrown about lately.

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

At some point some consistent moisture needs to start showing up in these model runs...this feels pretty dry leading into winter to me

Yep I've been saying it for months... this Nino isn't acting like a Nino.

BWI: 2.3"

DCA: 1.1"

IAD: 3.7"

RIC: 0.4"

Tiebreaker SBY: 0.2"

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I know this is pretty broad brushed, but I think it’s actually a bit under climo for most? This is Fox5 in DC

 

https://twitter.com/taylorgrenda/status/1717497400871248245?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

That would be well below climo for most of Southern MD, but it would be much more than I've gotten in 3 of the last 4 winters, so there's that I guess. 

October is the best weather month in this region by far.

The Great Drizzlefest of 2023 has returned. Monthly total 8.41"

My monthly total is up to 8.19". Hoping I can heavy drizzle my way to double digits this month. 

We’re doing the heavy mist not on radar thing again IMBY

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

No radar signal but still drizzly. 3.20"

Same here, heavy drizzle but not on radar. Why doesn’t it show up?

Storm total 3.78"