PrinceFrederickWx

0.6” here so far, with light snow.
 

Roads and sidewalks have caved in a few spots, but are mostly wet.

On 1/16/2024 at 1:49 PM, Roger Smith said:

Until Feb 5-6.

 

In the new normal, we seem to only get one decent storm in January... my forecast accounted for this one-and-done. But I've seen several people pointing to early February as the time to watch, which would make sense historically, so we'll see if I get blown out or not. Obviously I hope I'm proven wrong. 

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Damn.  That poor dude is getting roasted.

Yeah this is becoming the meme of the winter on this subforum, up there with amped/Randytastic, Carbondale/Short Pump, and my personal favorite, Jebman telling off some dude from SNE (I think that was 2015).

This is going to be the joke of the winter now, like the 2016 amped/Randytastic thing. 

Sleet and freezing rain has really picked up here. Some surfaces are starting to cave again.

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

 

Down here we're a little more impatient:

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Where did that line come from? Lol

Notorious B.I.G. - Ready to Die 

I gotta survive Friday but then I should be good for awhile. 

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I want the extra .2" the 12z GFS just promised me before 1pm. Is that a crime??

Me too, I want it all, from the Rolexes to the Lexus! 

9 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Time to mothball this until December.

BWI still has a long way to go to not break the ten year futility record though, so this thread is still relevant.

Final total here was exactly 2".

Roads and sidewalks had caved last night, but are all melted now. Currently raining here.

My kids played in the snow yesterday evening, they're about to play in it now inb4 it all melts.

1.8" here so far, and still snowing. I'm amazed SoMD was still able to pull this one off.

I’m not liking the north trend, even if it is slight. Plenty of time left for this to shift into the usual jackpot lane… lol

Putting any faith in the NAM:

16 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Since you mentioned NYC, I took a look at the data between Baltimore and NYC to see how much disparity there was each decade.

Turns out, from the late 19th century to 1990, NYC averaged 25% more snow than Baltimore. The highest decade I found was 75% more for NYC (1940s), while the 1960s actually had slightly more snow in Baltimore.

In the 90s and 00s (including 09-10), NYC averaged around 35% more than Baltimore.

But since 2010, NYC averaged more than 2x the snow of Baltimore, which is completely unprecedented. It is very apparent just from the raw numbers that something has clearly changed. The NY and NNJ snow weenies should take this all as a cautionary tale, because the change isn't stopping any time soon and they aren't going to like where it may eventually take them.

I’ve been wondering about this a lot. Could it be that our new normal gives us more Miller B’s, etc., or otherwise a pattern that leaves NYC permanently higher while the Mid-Atlantic trends lower? Will some areas in the northeast be permanently better off? Or are they just now in the feast-or-famine stage, which will eventually transition to all famine (like we seem to be doing)? 

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Are you willing to step away--like all the way away--from this site and tracking for a day or two? I think it will help (sure helped me last year).

At some point between last winter and the Canadian wildfires I transitioned into full-on climate doomer. I keep checking in the hopes we at least get a MECS to prove my worst fears wrong, in the short term at least…

I have four young kids and it scares me what this planet is going to look like by the time they grow up. 

20 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

I feel like Walter in Money Pit when he finally loses the last little glimmer of hope and just starts laughing maniacally

https://youtu.be/9CJ9EDtZ2p8?si=BayC48ScmEurWTxj

I already posted this on the previous page lol

The real question is: what happens if we somehow get completely shut out again this winter? That would even be worse than my dire winter forecast. What will the conversation be like going forward? Would anyone ever forecast above average snow again? Would we still have “deniers?”

The window is rapidly closing on the climo+ snow forecasts if we can’t get anything meaningful in the next 7-10 days…

18z GFS:

9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Good guess. Early March 2015

That’s a beautiful shot! 

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m not sure that you meant me, but what I was trying to say is that the civilized world ends in Stevensville coming from where you live.

I love the eastern shore. Hopefully I didn’t offend you or others. Here’s a favorite photo that I took.

When and where was this taken? I’m going to take a wild guess: Sandy Point, February 2015?

5 hours ago, AlexD1990 said:

They're all happy about the GFS run and I'm over here like...ugh.,

This GFS run is even worse for us. I’d prefer the Euro solution but of course they all don’t. 

12 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

 

*glances at his 14/15 15/16 records*

14/15- 33.7

15/16- 33.4

*has questions*

IMBY:

4 hours ago, dailylurker said:

2016 sucked lol. We had 4 days of cold. A freak snow that melted 36 hours later with temps in the 60's. That was it for that winter. Sure.. better then the garbage lately, but hardly a good winter. 2014-15 was the last winter we had basically. 

15-16 was way better in SoMD than 14-15. We had another WSW on President's Day (some areas got more from that than the HECS), then another borderline WSW event in early March, and even an accumulating event in April. 14-15 was only really good if you were in the northern tier.

Of course both winters look amazing compared to the last two years here, so I'd take either of them at this point LOL