PrinceFrederickWx

0.1" and it's already over and melting. Roads and sidewalks never caved. I was forecast 1-3" by LWX...

I'm convinced it simply cannot snow in SOMD anymore.

The 1981-2010 normal had 8" of snow for BWI in February. The 1991-2020 normal has 7.5" in February. If you average the last nine Februaries you get only 1.9" now. Even if you accuse me of cherry-picking, and I do ten years to include 2014-15, I'm still only getting 3.1." If you assume next year is a La Nina (where Februaries usually suck) then this is going down even further. 

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

didnt we just get a blizzard type of storm in march a few years ago like around March 20th lol

3/21/2018 was a WSW IMBY but not for BWI or DCA. Neither of those airports have had a WSW in February or March since 2015.

There has also not been a WSW for either one in December since 2009.

The main issue continues to be that the metro areas (and everywhere south and east) can no longer score significant events outside of January. Winter is now boxed into four weeks instead of four months, so the averages are going to be much, much lower as a result.

(Note: I will STFU about this forever if the region somehow has a WSW this month or next.)

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We're a lock for a HECS next year. 

I almost want to be the contrarian and just say next year will be the 95-96. Though I do wonder what the long range forecasts (if they even existed back then) were for that winter.

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Dept of Highways has had some weird totals over this winter. Idk how they measure. 

With the back-to-back January storms, the errors seemed like they were just sticking a ruler in a random spot and measuring snow depth. Now I'm even more stumped. The only thing we both know is that all the State Highway measurements are probably wrong again somehow. LOL

24 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall.

Now watch us get a March hecs.

The airports could still theoretically go climo+ but it was a red flag early on for the forecasted epic winter that we weren’t on the board by mid-December. I had posted this in the Panic thread back then, but winters like 1996, 2003 and 2010 always showed themselves early. Even the epic backloaded winters like 2015 had accumulating events in November, December and early January.

Just remember: we climate doomers were mocked all year on here. Now which of the two threads ended up being more accurate: this one or the long range thread? LOL

Until proven otherwise, nothing has changed my view that this region can no longer get WSW events outside of January.

4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Need to get him treatment immediately.  Do you want him chasing snow in the base state of the 2040s?

He's gonna need a pop-up book of an elephant. 

My youngest is two and has a weather pop-up book he likes. He keeps opening and closing the snowflake picture over and over, saying "See snowflake! See snowflake!"

This disease starts at a young age. LOL

15 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

March is going to be special.  It's ripe.  The pattern looks amazing.  All we'll need is -25F departures, heavy rates, and nocturnal storms.

And if not, This amazing pattern has legs well into April. 

You know some of them will hold on to the bitter end. They'll be posting maps in mid-April when it's 85 degrees saying the pattern looks ripe in two weeks for a redux of April 28, 1898. 

So when does the 2010 pattern kick in again? By this time in 2010 I had over 50” of snow. This year I’ve had three glorified cartoppers and a week’s worth of cold.

24 minutes ago, TSG said:

This board gets a little bit more insane every year

It’s mostly turned into a cult of personality around a dozen or so posters, most of whom have known each other since the dail-up era.

39 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I have no complaints about the weather this week, that’s for sure lol. February is the best of both worlds…better snow chances, but also have Spring around the corner to look forward to.

No complaints here either, I’ve been enjoying it quite a bit! Been doing a lot of outdoor daytrips. If it’s not going to snow, sunny and warm is the next best thing.

The goalposts are quietly being moved. Now it’s all the last week of February into early March.

I didn’t think a dry February was even possible in a Nino?

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dec 2018 and Feb 1 2021 were really the only two legit changes we’ve had for a hecs storm since 2016 and neither was really as good as this setup. 

This is a bit off topic, but I keep remembering there was a massively hyped HECS that was supposed to be a few days after Christmas a few years back. The models I think had it for a very long time up until a few days before. Was that 2018?  

16 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

As promised, here is the Norfolk list, beginning with the most recent.  I did 2 inches or more since 4 inches + was shorter than Richmond's. I'll probably do 2" or more for both cities for March, which I'll post in the coming days. Data was less kind after about 1990, and neither city has had much snow in February since 2015. 

February Snowstorms 2" or more at Norfolk (since 1891)

5.6” February 25-26, 2015
2.1” February 24, 2015
3.6” February 16, 2015
3.8” February 9-10, 2011
2.2” February 15-16, 2004
3.9” February 16, 1996
7.1” February 3-4, 1996
9.0” February 24, 1989
15.4” February 17-19, 1989
5.2” February 5-6, 1984
6.5” February 9-10, 1980
12.4” February 6-7, 1980
7.0” February 18-19, 1979
5.1” February 7, 1979
6.2” February 2, 1978
3.9” February 10, 1973
2.1” February 4-5, 1971
2.6” February 3-4, 1970
2.0” February 29, 1968
5.1” February 9-10, 1967
3.9” February 14, 1965
3.6” February 11-12, 1964
6.3” February 26-27, 1963
3.9” February 13, 1960
2.1” February 3, 1951
12.4” February 10-11, 1948
5.8” January 31-February 1, 1948
4.2” February 23, 1947
5.8” February 27-March 1, 1941
6.0” February 28, 1937
11.0” February 7, 1936
6.0” February 25, 1934
2.0” February 9, 1934
2.9” February 13-14, 1929
3.0” February 27, 1924
2.0” February 5, 1923
6.0” February 15, 1922
2.8” February 5-7, 1922
5.1” February 13-14, 1916
3.0” February 24, 1914
3.7” February 13-14, 1914
4.0” January 31-February 1, 1910
2.5” February 20, 1907
3.1” February 26, 1904
7.0” February 10-11, 1904
8.8” February 15-17, 1902
6.0” February 23-24, 1901
13.5” February 11-14, 1899
2.8” February 16-17, 1895
5.6” February 7-8, 1895

I'm not from the area but was reading through this list and I'm shocked at those 1989 numbers. I had no idea Norfolk had all that snow that year! There wasn't any up here. Anyway, interesting list, I enjoyed reading it and hope you post the March ones. I've been curious about climo there.

Weenies gonna get roasted by a can kick in a few weeks 

47 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Yes, but that snow wasn't really that great. Good for a March snow, no doubt, but not really a very exciting event.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk


Eta - went back and found a pic - pretty, but barely covered the driveway.

I measured 7.3” in that event (3/21/2018). Most of SoMD did very well.

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

But I'm in SoMD and we haven't had any good storms down here in March since I've been here

I take it you weren't here in 2018 then?

Chasing patterns 2+ weeks out:

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Historically...you should be fine, lol (No HECS has ever come on that week)

Well PSU said it's going to be on Feb 24 + or - a few days so that should do it, I'm screwed. 

54 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I think we'll get another round of winter by then, but the idea that we're actually good at March snow is a little overrated.  It certainly does snow, but we usually don't get wintry periods like we had a couple weeks ago...March is a little more choppy in that regard.

Yeah, usually our "snowy" March is just one event. 2014 was arguably the most extreme March here ever, with multiple snows and wall-to-wall cold. The odds of something like that happening again in our lifetimes is probably very low.

I've got a Dr. appt. on Feb. 28 that I've had to wait over a month for- that'll be our one-and-only HECS date, trust me.