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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. Isn't this what the forum is all about???
  2. If a mesovortex produces sustained winds of 140 mph, than it's a 140 mph storm. However, meso-vortices are more likely to produce really fast instantaneous gusts, but not necessarily contribute a lot to the overall sustained winds. So people are probably discounting instantaneous gusts as being part of meso-vortices.
  3. I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month. Yeah I'm with you. I would rather see a monster cat 4 or 5 storm that remains out to see, than mayhem/destruction related to landfall. This is why I find the east pac season fun to track.
  4. Appreciate the support Certainly an interesting feature, and again seems to have occurred in past intense TCs (Harvey, Michael). My suspicion is that it has to do with the modest southerly shear.
  5. One last drop into the eye. 940 mb @ 11 kt.
  6. They probably dropped a sonde in the NW eyewall on their way out.
  7. FL winds in excess of 145 kt too. SFMR still just shy of 130 kt, so seems like sustained winds are holding.
  8. This is probably what happened. Seems like there is a reasonable case for 125 kt as the current intensity based on the most recent AF mission.
  9. So this was about an hour ago in the NW quad from the P3, just for reference.
  10. New sonde? Not showing up yet on my end.
  11. Sondes have been consistently showing higher pressures than extrapolations though. Also, there hasn't been SFMR or a sonde that showed anything higher than 125 kts for a while.
  12. Looks like NHC went with 939 mb, but I agree that 937 was probably the low point. Interesting, I'm actually seeing outbound velocities in the western eyewall approach 160 mph per KLCH. This is comparable to the eastern side, and the strongest winds I have seen there so far. Seems to coincide with an apparent intensification of the western eyewall in the reflectivity.
  13. Careful, you could start an hour long internet war with that kind of talk...
  14. Was this our peak? So probably something like 937 mb?
  15. I am jealous that you live in Kailua. Latest radar scans show that *whatever* was happening with the southern eyewall may be abating. New high DBZ returns have wrapped completely around the southeastern side.
  16. Agreed. I am done (with that topic at least). New recon made a pass while we were arguing, FYI: 145 kt FL winds in the western eyewall.
  17. I agree, but every other poster tries to tell me I don't know what I'm talking about after I presented a clearly thought out argument, and it's fairly frustrating.
  18. The southern eyewall is clearly weaker in this situation (or at least appears weaker) than in the case of Michael's southeastern eyewall.
  19. Did I say that anywhere in the post? He is not the foremost expert on TCs, and there are plenty of others. I happen to know many of them.
  20. The second radar site was to the west. Almost due west. I can't believe we are still having this argument. Nobody has even looked to see where KHGX is.
  21. The argument is somewhat moot, because my speculation that the strengthening would stop was clearly wrong. In any case, mark my word, the last words I will utter on my death bed are "It was not attenuation!!!! I swear it!!!"
  22. second radar is KHGX, which is almost due west.
  23. Everyone is speculating, even Rick Knabb. I'm having a conversation with another professor who is an expert in TCs, and he agrees with my explanation of the phenomena. I also maintain that nobody has explained why the features shows up in the same spot from two different radars. I guess we'll see if the VDM contains any remarks.