jpeters3
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Everything posted by jpeters3
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I would be incredibly surprised if this one wasn't also an EF-4 (or 5).
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I'm guessing it will be assessed as a continuous track.
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Hard to tell - looks like it might be the same circulation.
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confirmed, still a wedge on humphree's cam.
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John Humphress has been periodically showing a massive wedge.
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this is literally a few minutes after someone called bust
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That storm just took a massive hike toward the right as well.
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Same thing happened on 4-12-20, prior to the series of long-tracked massive supercell tornadoes. Also, there's a wedge on the ground in eastern AL. TOO EARLY TO CALL BUST.
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Lol, just as the weenies start to call bust, the "junkvection line" starts to turn into supercells. Look at eastern MS
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That has to be one of the most stunning chaser feed moments i have seen. I thought he was going to get hit. Thing is moving like a freight train.
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https://www.facebook.com/abc3340/videos/301625501323080
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Looks like the classic enhanced inflow signature had developed that proceeds a big spin-up
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?
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The mass of convection that is currently forming in southern MS is a fly in the ointment. This looks similar to what the toned-down 00 UTC HRRR showed, and might pose a junkvection-like mechanism for preventing more widespread stabilization.
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At this point we should be focused more on weather outcomes (e.g., strong/violent long tracked tornadoes) than SPC forecast content. Whether or not watches are PDS, or whether or not spc issues a 45% tornado probability, is somewhat irrelevant at this point. These things have no bearing on what will happen.
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The NAM nest is a bit out to lunch on early day convection, but has gone all in on the outbreak scenario.
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This is inconsequential. The discussion speaks for itself.
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There always is. Too much convection blowing up too early in the warm sector could substantially reduce supercell coverage, for instance.
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All of the latest ones are pretty darn concerning, eh?
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The ceiling is certainly a historic, and unfortunately destructive and deadly, outbreak.
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After the brief lull at 00Z, the HRRR is back to apocalypse mode. Pretty scary convergence of model guidance on what looks like a a worst case scenario...
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IDK, let me consult COAMPS
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Fairly sure no observed sounding has ever looked like that
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Yeah, can we talk about where the hell these profiles came from??? Calling BS on this solution...
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Nam nest says "hold my beer." Produces a warm sector with widespread 0-1 km SRH > 600 J/kg and 80-100 kt 0-6 km BWDs, but not one supercell or UH track over MS/AL. Not much convection at all. So much for CAMs making things clearer for the 06 UTC outlook.
