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Allsnow

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  1. Allsnow
    Great to read your thoughts. I remember you explaining to me the correlation between the mjo in October and the upcoming winter. Please keep us posted. Im interested to see how this blocking episode works out to end the month. Does it sink south and fail to fix the western pac or is it more of a classic progression. I remember most of us thought 20-21 would be mild/snowless. It ended up being one of my favorite winters. It really didn’t get going until the end of January into February. The January storm was one of my favorites. Hopefully we get some winter this season to satisfy all of us
  2. Allsnow
    Agreed. Seems like they favor late December into January for snow/cold. February is a torch according to the outlook
  3. Allsnow
    The lakes will cash in away from The immediate shoreline
  4. Allsnow
    Yup. Best chance for rain on the ensembles is 11/22. After that it might be a while until the ULL moves out north of the lakes
  5. Allsnow
    Makes sense with the ULL trapped north of the lakes need that to move out for any precipitation chance
  6. Allsnow
    Great outlook!
  7. Allsnow
  8. Allsnow
  9. Allsnow
    Won’t make it tonight either Clear for tonight, and with winds probably decoupling inland with light to calm winds, good radiational cooling conditions. Mixed low levels should however limit radiational cooling for the NYC/NJ metro where the growing season continues, so not expecting much frost. Have decided to convert the Freeze Watch in southern Nassau County to a Warning with just enough coverage of freezing temperatures as cold air advection would be sufficient in spite of a mixed boundary layer.
  10. Allsnow
    Yup. The ULL gets trapped underneath the block which will probably get the lake effect machine going the week of thanksgiving. But I don’t see many precipitation chances that week here with everything getting shredded by the ULL. Perhaps something when that moves out later towards months end
  11. Allsnow
    Crazy. The eps overnight didn’t have a rain chance for the northeast until 11/22
  12. Allsnow
    Painful miss opportunity
  13. Allsnow
    It’s amazing how many gulf systems failed to produce rain up here this year
  14. Allsnow
  15. Allsnow
    If that ULL gets stuck underneath the block it will Probably produce a early season lake event
  16. Allsnow
    Fail once again. Stopped at 34 last night
  17. Allsnow
    Agreed. That would bring the 2-3 day cold shot afterwards
  18. Allsnow
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  20. Allsnow
    The op runs today kind of support my thinking for next week into the weekend
  21. Allsnow
    Extension of the HRES and WAVE forecasts to 15 days (00/12 UTC runs) and 6 days (06/18 UTC runs)
  22. Allsnow
    Might be a struggle to get below 32 here now.
  23. Allsnow
    It will now go out to 384 hours
  24. Allsnow
  25. Allsnow
    Thinking we get a good cold shot the weekend before thanksgiving. It won’t have lots of staying power but should be chilly for a few days. These short window cold shots are common in a Nina Enso
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